Tommy Pham: Not Mike Trout but closer than you think

Cardinals outfielder Tommy Pham was one of the most valuable fantasy players last season. Can he repeat it in 2018?

Is Tommy Pham as good as Mike Trout? The answer is an easy no. Trout is the best player on the planet. The only other player to pose any meaningful competition to the Angels’ outfielder’s title as the game’s top player is the Astros’ second baseman Jose Altuve. It is unlikely that Trout or Altuve will last beyond the first three picks in any draft in 2018.

With that in mind, there were only three players in 2017 with more than 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases and who hit above .300. They were Trout, Altuve and you’ve guessed it, Pham.

29-year-old Pham entered 2017 off the back of yet another injury-shortened season in which he struck out nearly 40% of the time. Although he has always had some pop, the Cardinals started the season with the elite outfield trio of Dexter Fowler, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, which gave Pham very little fantasy value. Or so we thought.

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Pham did not just produce for the Cardinals at a level that was unexpected; he went from being undrafted in most fantasy baseball leagues to one of the best players to own in any format of the game.

He hit 23 home runs with 73 RBI, 95 runs, 25 stolen bases and .306 AVG with .931 OPS.

To put that in perspective, with only 23 more plate appearances than Trout, Pham scored more runs, recorded more RBI, stole more bases and finished with the same batting average as the best player on the planet.

Pham dramatically reduced his strikeout rate to a more acceptable 22.1% with an impressively patient 13.4% walk rate. He finished the season with an OBP over .400 and slugging percentage over .500. It was an exceptional level of production.

Piscotty, hampered by injury and personal issues, and Grischuk, with his 30% strikeout rate, both had disappointing seasons, posting .708 OPS and .758 OPS respectively. They looked nothing like the players that were expected to be the Cardinals’ outfield for years to come. It is little wonder that the Cardinals are thought to be in talks with the Marlins about star slugger Giancarlo Stanton.

Regardless of whether Stanton moves to St Louis, Pham’s name will be safely on the lineup card to start the season. After all, he led the team with 148 wRC+.

But is it sustainable?

He was fortunate with flyballs traveling for homers, so don’t expect the 26.7% HR/FB rate to continue. It is possible that 2017 will prove to be the only 20 home run season of his career.

Striking out over 20% of the time while posting a batting average above .300 is a difficult accomplishment. Last season, it was only achieved by Pham, Marcell Ozuna and Ryan Zimmerman. It is unlikely that any of them will repeat it in 2018.

As a team, the Cardinals posted .304 BABIP, so regression of Pham’s .368 BABIP, which was among the league leaders, looks inevitable.

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Pham’s 2018 ADP will be intriguing. Don’t overpay for one outstanding season but bear in mind that he will still score plenty of runs hitting towards the top of the Cardinals’ lineup, and the potential for another 25 stolen base season makes him very valuable.