FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Wednesday November 15
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning tournament line-ups fell just short of 350 FanDuel points as big nights from James Harden (55) and LaMarcus Aldridge (50) led the charge, both at over 50% ownership! The key difference makers on this slate were players like Patty Mills (40) at 10% or Marcus Morris (31) at 15% ownership that helped not only bring salary relief, but provided easy 6-7x value at their price points!
Over the first 28 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 28 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Russell Westbrook ($10,300): We have a massive eleven game slate to tackle tonight in FanDuel NBA so we can fully expect tonight to be high scoring, with winning tournament line-ups well over 400 as they have been for the majority of our large slates this season! The interesting dynamic when looking at this slate is we have the usual suspects all priced over $10k – LeBron, Giannis and Boogie/Brow and right below them is a pair of Sixers big men that I expect will be highly popular today. Sandwiched in between them is a certain MVP from last year who is just a shade over $10k and boy does that seem enticing tonight!
The big news for me tonight is the injuries in Oklahoma City as Steven Adams is doubtful to play in this game while Carmelo Anthony is questionable after only being able to participate in non-contact drills in Mondays practice. If you look at the metrics this season, without Melo and Adams on the court Westbrook sees a huge 10% usage boost and leads the team with a massive 43.3% usage rate while putting up 1.3 fantasy points per minutes! Guys – these are last season kind of numbers and we can get Beastbrook at a price point $2-$3k cheaper than we had to pay for him last year – do not make the mistake of overlooking Russ tonight, in fact I think he needs to be a core play against the Bulls!
Lonzo Ball ($7,300): The best game of the night looks to be the Lakers-Sixers (who would have thunk it), as we get the highest projected scoring game on the slate with by far the fastest pace and both teams see the largest pace boosts of any of the teams in action. This is a PRIME stacking spot for tournaments and if you are going to do so, then Lonzo Ball makes for target #1 on the Lakers.
Ball is priced reasonably and has already shown us this season he has 50-60 point upside, specifically thriving in pace up spots like he did earlier in the year dropping 55 FD points versus Phoenix. From a DFS perspective, what I love about Lonzo is that his peripheral stats never seem to waver as he routinely racks up assists, rebounds and steals regardless of how his shot is falling. There have only been two nights this season when Ball’s shot fell at a greater than 30% clip which resulted in 55 and 66 FD points so the upside is simply massive if he gets his shot going tonight and makes for a great correlation play with some of the Sixers elite plays!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Kris Dunn ($6,100): As of this writing, the Bulls-Thunder is the only game without a total/line due to the injury questions on the OKC side that when combined with the expected slow(er) pace and blowout narrative may lead to this game being under-owned. One of the things I like to do in DFS is look for changes in rotations that lead to big changes in usage and we already mentioned the Thunder side of that coin with Westbrook but do not overlook the impact that Justin Holiday missing this game will have on a player like Dunn.
Dunn sees a 3% usage boost with Holiday off the court this season, putting up a 29% usage rate and a fantasy point per minute of production! Dunn has put up 33+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games, doing so while only playing over 30 minutes in one game – and tonight, I think we see him hit that 30 minute mark again with the Bulls being short-handed in the backcourt. Dunn’s ability to rack up steals, 12 over his last four games, gives him an enormous boost in the FanDuel scoring that awards 3 points per steal and with the added offensive responsibilities he makes for a great one-off play or correlation with Westbrook in a mini Bulls/Thunder stack.
J.R. Smith ($4,300): Can I interest you in a value play that is locked into 30+ minutes a night and has exceeded 6x value in each of his last two games? Smith may not be the sexiest play on the board and is never someone you start your roster build with but when you are looking in this range he tends to be the first guy I look towards when needing a punt SG. The sheer volume of minutes (32+ in five straight) and shot attempts (double-digit in four of his last five) give him a relatively safe floor – as safe as anything J.R. Smith can be – while also providing a big time ceiling due to his streaky offensive output.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Plays:
Paul George ($9,000): As we mentioned withe Russell Westrbook, the likely absence of Carmelo Anthony and Steven Adams means we are down to a two-man show in OKC so I think a Westbrook/George stack is firmly in play here tonight. With Melo/Adams off the court this year, PG13 sees a 3% usage boost, sporting a 31% usage rate and a team leading 1.4 fantasy point per minute output.
George is playing at an elite level right now and although he has seen his price spike up, he still comes at a material discount to guys like Giannis and LeBron priced at 12k and 11k respectively. George has played 40+ minutes in back to back games and put up 57 and 69 FanDuel points in those contests which would easily exceed 6x value even at this $9k price tag!
Let me look at this another way – the Thunder in their last game without Adams and Melo took 70 shot attempts – of which Westbrook and George took FORTY of them – equating to 55% of the Thunder offense. With that much guaranteed usage funnelled to two key guys – this is an ideal two-man stack tonight I plan on rolling out across the board on this slate!
OG Anunoby ($3,200) and CJ Miles ($3,100): Going right back to the well here ladies and gents! With Norman Powell out on Tuesday it was Anunoby who got the start for the Raptors and played 29 minutes while racking up 22.9 FD points which would exceed 7x value at this price point! Assuming Powell is out again this is a spot we can go right back to tonight and an OG/Miles punt stack is firmly in play tonight again.
As I mentioned yesterday, it is worthwhile to view OG/Miles as essentially one player, priced at a combined $6.3k which means we need 38 FanDuel points to hit GPP value. Last night, Anunboy’s 22.9 FD points and Miles 32.2 FD points combined for 55 FD points (8x value) which makes this an intriguing spot to stack up again and allow you to spend up elsewhere on this slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Joel Embiid ($9,700): The Sixers have the highest implied team total on the slate and this match-up against the Lakers is one that brings with it a massive pace boost for the young Sixers core. What intrigues me about the Sixers is that they are running a really tight rotation where there starters are locked into 30+ minutes a night with a short bench – meaning we get full run of the key guys each and every night.
Embiid is THE play for the Sixers tonight and coming off his 53.2 FD point performance against the Clippers, I expect he will be a popular Center target on this slate. The fact we have seen The Process play 30+ minutes in two of his last three games bodes well for his DFS prospects tonight and his team-leading 30% usage rate over the last two weeks makes him the focal point of this attack!
Ben Simmons ($9,800) is an electrifying talent but I think it is interesting his recent dip in fantasy production over the last three games has coincided with the expanded run for Embiid. Over the last two weeks, Simmons has a 19% usage rate with is a 9% drop over his season long average while seeing a 0.2 FP/M reduction in his output. Dario Saric ($4,500) may be the better point per dollar play from the Sixers PF’s tonight as he has hit 26 or more FD points in three of his last four games (5.8x value) while playing 33+ minutes in 3 of those 4 games!
Bobby Portis ($5,300) and Jerami Grant ($4,700) make for a nice salary saving mini-stack in the OKC-Chicago game as both players should continue to see expanded roles for their respective teams. With Justin Holiday off the court this season, in a small sample size, Portis has a 33% usage rate and is putting up nearly 1.5 fantasy points per minute. The Bulls PF is averaging nearly 34 FD/game in this three games since returning from suspension which would exceed 6.3x value at this price point and without Adams/Melo on the interior, we could see another massive rebounding game. Grant on the other hand entered the starting line-up on Sunday with the Thunder injuries mentioned and responded with 34 minutes and 28 FD points which would return 6x value at this price point!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- LAST CHANCE: $250 Guaranteed Bonus for Your Week 1 College Football Bet at DraftKings and FanDuel!
- MLB Rumors: Justin Verlander has a clear suitor, but it comes with a catch
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
PG: Russell Westbrook ($10,300)
PG: Lonzo Ball ($7,300)
SG: Kris Dunn ($6,100)
SG: JR Smith ($4,300)
SF: Paul George ($9,000)
SF: OG Anunoby ($3,200)
PF: Bobby Portis ($5,300)
PF: Jerami Grant ($4,700)
C: Joel Embiid ($9,700)
Slate Overview: After a relatively straight forward three game slate on Tuesday we are welcomed with a massive Wednesday night slate that gives us a variety of options for roster construction. The Lakers/Sixers game feels like one we simply need to get exposure to and although it will be popular as a stacking option, I think it makes sense to isolate the handful of plays you want in your core and look to differentiate elsewhere. The Thunder/Bulls game is where I am choosing to focus tonight as a potential under-owned stack and keeping an eye on the injury news here for Melo/Adams will be critical to our path – good luck all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NFL, NHL and EPL!