FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Friday November 17
Welcome to the Friday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s winning tournament line-ups landed at 335 FanDuel points as the Houston Rockets exploded for 142 points and get massive FanDuel outings from guys like James Harden (64.9) and we saw young players like Jaylen Brown (42) and Josh Jackson (30) put up big lines at their value price points to help afford the big names like Harden on this short two game slate.
Over the first 30 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 30 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Welcome to Friday where we continue to bounce back and forth between 10+ game slates and these 2-3 game slates for DFS but tonight we have a massive slate to break down and with it, a number of roster build approaches.
The point guard position on this slate is the one I honestly struggled the most with when building my roster as the high-end PG’s like Russell Westbrook, John Wall and Damian Lillard all seem a but over priced and I think there are other players I want to spend up on which leads me to the mid-range of the Point Guard position.
Jamal Murray ($4,900): One of the things I look for each night when building my DFS rosters is to find guys who are getting consistent minutes and a high volume of shot attempts/usage. It is relatively easy to find the guys who have those kind of metrics over the course of the season – here is a hint – they are all priced at the top of their respective positions – but digging into shorter term trends we can find guys who have not yet seen their price reflect their increased role.
Murray has been the definition of a GPP play this year as his game to game inconsistencies have been brutal to weather, but these are the kind of tournament plays that could make or break a night for you. Over the last week, Murray has a team leading 33% usage rate while playing 33 and 39 minutes in those games and racking up just under 29 FD points per game which would put him at just a shade under 6x value at this price point. What is most interesting to me over those games is the sheer volume of shots he is taking – as he has 19 and 21 shot attempts in those games – leading the team in both contests. Now, some of that increase could be due to Gary Harris missing those games but the reality is, Will Barton, a known chucker, was on the court in his place so this is a trend we could continue to exploit and the salary is low enough where it could pay off in a massive way against Rajon Rondo‘s defense!
Jeff Teague ($6,700) and Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,900): Over the last two weeks, DSJ and Teague are top 8 PG’s in terms of FanDuel points per game and make for an interesting mini-stack tonight as they oppose each other on the court. The Mavericks and Timberwolves are both ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of DvP on the season but if forced to choose, I would side with Teague in this spot as he has the better individual match-up. For as impressive as the Mavericks rookie has been offensively, the reality is he is ranked 73rd out of 85 point guards in terms of defensive real plus/minus rating.
This was a spot I heard many sharp players in the industry tout when the Spurs played them a few days ago and we saw Patty Mills drop a 40 spots on DSJ and the Mavericks so rolling out Teague in the same match-up could pay big time dividends tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Donovan Mitchel ($6,400) and Rodney Hood ($5,700): One of the key themes on this slate in my opinion is that we have some elite value in super chalk spots (more on that later) and we get a the Utah Jazz taking on the Nets again after just playing them on Saturday and we can simply load up on all the value the Jazz represent in an elite game environment.
The big news to watch here is the status of Ricky Rubio who is questionable to play with Achilles soreness which could open up even more value and usage for Utah tonight against the Nets. Looking at the Jazz with Rubio and Rudy Gobert off the floor this season, Mitchell has a team leading 37% usage rate while putting up 1.12 fantasy points per minute and could potentially run the point if Rubio is forced to miss this game.
We have not yet had a game where Rubio has sat so it is tough to find an obvious bench plug-in but it is interesting to note over the last two games that Mitchell/Hood have essentially ran the back-court when Rubio has come off the floor. As much as I like Hood (and if he fits please use him), he is entirely too scoring dependent for him to be a core play of mine and would much prefer Mitchell if forced to choose.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,100): The Lakers and Suns are in the highest scoring and fastest pace game of the night and with a 10:30 PM EST tip-off, you are going to need some exposure to this game if you want to stay relevant for late night sweats! With Lonzo Ball struggling recently, it has been Clarkson that has flourished with 25+ real points in each of the last two games while putting up 36 and 40 FanDuel points which would exceed 7x value in both spots even at this slightly increased price point.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
LeBron James ($11,400): The Cavaliers have the second highest team total on tonight’s slate, actually seeing a near 5 points increase over their seasons average – which based off how the Cavs offense is working these days that means LeBron should be expected to score 5 more points than his season average. Over the last two weeks, LeBron has a 33.4% usage rate with a 1.5 FP/M output and has put up 55 FanDuel points in back to back games against the Hornets and Knicks. Tonight LeBron takes on a Clippers team that is ranked 27th in DvP versus opposing SF’s and with all the value on the slate, there is no reason not to lock in King James again tonight.
Thabo Sefolosha ($4,300): Jonas Jerebko has started the last two games for the Jazz, leaving Thabo to play only 22 and 15 minutes against Minnesota and New York which made keep the recency bias crowd off my man, but those were match-up based minutes as Jerebko was needed to deal with he size of the Minnesota and New York front court. Tonight, against a smaller Brooklyn squad we should see Sefolosha re-enter the starting line-up and we saw what that meant a few days ago when he started against this same Nets squad, playing 32 minutes and racking up 35.3 FD points which would exceed 8x value at this price point!
As much as I want to find pivot options for my readers, I simply find myself landing on this duo in every roster build I start on today. There is enough value to easily fit in a guy like LeBron and Thabo is one of the best paths to unlocking the high-end stars in your roster build. Sometimes we just need to keep it simple and this duo will be at the core of my line-ups tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Greg Monroe ($3,700): Welcome to the chalk value play of the day ladies and gents! Monroe got the start for the Suns with Tyson Chandler ruled out last night and responded with a monster 43.7 FD points on the back of 20 points and 11 boards in only 26 minutes of action. With Chandler already ruled out and a match-up against the Lakers, this is a fade at your own risk kind of play in GPP’s and a must in all cash game formats!
Derrick Favors ($6,500): I just love the Jazz tonight. Love them. We can essentially stack the entire starting 5 against the Nets for under $7k – and Favors is the lead dog we can focus on tonight. Over the last three games with Gobert off the floor, Favors has played 34+ minutes and racked up 35+ FanDuel points against the Knicks and Nets and gets this same match-up he just crushed against Brooklyn tonight. One of the easiest plays on the board for me and the price is simply too good to pass on tonight!
Anthony Davis ($11,000): The Greg Monroe/Jazz stack tonight is going to be at the core of my roster builds as it allows us to save enough salary to lock in two studs and with The King already firmly on my roster, we can click the lock button on The Brow right beside him! This Pelicans/Nuggets game has the second highest game total and third fastest pace so we want to have exposure here tonight in some fashion. As much as I love Boogie, Monroe is going to be our Center path tonight which means we can pivot to AD in this spot. It will be interesting to see how the ownership shakes out here as Davis has only topped 50 FD points one time in his last four games but all things considered he is in one of the best match-ups the Pelicans could ask for. The Nuggets on the year are the toughest DvP wise against Centers so while Jokic/Boogie tangle inside we can attack The Brow against Millsap and a team ranked 22nd in DvP to opposing PF’s.
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Jeff Teague ($6,700)
PG: Jamal Murray ($4,900)
SG: Donovan Mitchell ($6,400)
SG: Jordan Clarkson ($5,100)
SF: LeBron James ($11,400)
SF: Thabo Sefolosha ($4,300)
PF: Anthony Davis ($11,000)
PF: Derrick Favors ($6,500)
C: Greg Monroe ($3,700)
Slate Overview: Greg Monroe, Jazz starting stack and pick your studs of choice – that is the simple strategy for me today! Keep an eye on the injury news for Ricky Rubio so we know exactly what the Jazz will go against the Nets and be prepared for 98% Greg Monreo ownership tonight – man, I love DFS!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis across the NBA, NFL, NHL, EPL and Euro League basketball!