FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Saturday November 18
Welcome to the Saturday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s winning tournament line-ups landed just below 400 FanDuel points as LeBron James (61) and Blake Griffin (53) were the big dollar stars but it was players like Spencer Dinwiddie (49) and Victor Oladipo (47) at single digit ownership that really helped you stand out in large field GPP’s – oh yeah, and avoiding a 50% owned Greg Monroe and his whopping 9.7 FanDuel points!
Over the first 31 NBA regular season slates it has taken 378.5 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 31 NBA regular season slates it has taken 378.5 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Stephen Curry ($9,000): Let’s not beat around the ole’ bush here Picks and Pivoters – there is one marquee game on the slate tonight and my goal is to load up on it every which way I can! The Warriors and Sixers tangle in Philadelphia tonight in a game with a 231 total that is nearly 20 points higher than any other game on the slate and a reasonable 8.5 opening spread. This game has by far the highest projected pace, including the teams with the two biggest pace boosts and we just saw these two squads play to a game total of 249 so on a seven game slate I think you simply need to prioritize your exposure here considering the options you are presented.
FanDuel did a great job of pricing up the plays in this game, recognizing the lack of elite game environments elsewhere so they are going to force you to make some tough choices. Frankly, Curry at $9k is not an overly difficult choice at point guard if you are looking to get exposure to this game. The Warriors point guard was able to rack up 41.3 FD points against this same Philly team in only 29 minutes last time out and the fact the Warriors are coming off a loss makes this a fascinating bounce back spot where we could see the Warriors simply explode!
Mario Chalmers ($3,900): Welcome to Greg Monroe Part II everyone – the chalk value play that cannot bust! As an aside – Greg Monroe was 50% owned in the $4 Clutch Shot last night on an 11 game slate – think about that for a second.
Chalmers is going to be the chalk play of the day as the starting point guard for Memphis as Mike Conley has been ruled out for a minimum of two weeks. Chalmers has started two games this season in place of Mike Conley, putting up 20.8 and 31.1 FD points, an average of 26 FD points which would exceed 6.6x value at this price point.
The match-up with Chris Paul and the Rockets is not an ideal one, but the value that Chalmers provides and the guaranteed minutes make him an ideal play if you are looking to load up on the high-priced stars in the Golden State-Philadelphia game!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Donovan Mitchell ($6,400): As great of a job as FanDuel did of adjusting the pricing on the Warriors/Sixers, they left some free squares for us with the Utah Jazz who will continue to play short-handed and could be without Ricky Rubio again tonight. The Jazz see the largest pace boost of any team outside of GS/Philly and we saw what that meant last night for the interim PG in Donovan Mitchell. Against the Nets, Mitchell was simply everywhere, dominating the usage and putting up 38.4 FD points on the back of 15 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds. The Magic are ranked 26th in DvP versus opposing PG’s and Mitchell has driven 34% of the usage with guys like Gobert/Rubio off the court so going right back to the well again with him tonight is an ideal roster play!
Alec Burks ($3,200): During my research yesterday of the Jazz rotations without Rubio/Gobert/Thabo on the court, I noticed an interesting trend in the game flows recently that Alec Burks was the primary play who joined the starting line-up alongside guys like Mitchell, Hood, Favors and we saw Burks actually start the second half against the Nets as they opted to go small!
Tonight against a Magic team with Gordon/Vucevic in the front court, I think the Jazz will be forced to match with Jonas Jerebko but I expect Burks to still get significant run and he has been returning great value at this near minimum price point. Over his last five games, Burks has actually hit 7x value THREE times, including in both of his previous two contests and he makes for a great way to save salary while capturing big time GPP upside tonight!
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,000): TLC is another cheap pivot play who actually gives you some exposure to this GS/Philly game while targeting a player who has logged 23 minutes in two of his last three games with double-digit shot attempts in each contest! With Justin Anderson out for the forseeable future, TLC is expected to take on an expanded role off the bench and with 20+ minutes could be a great salary saving GPP option tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Forward and Center Plays:
As I mentioned in the open, my goal initially on this slate is to find ways to game stack the Warriors and Sixers as the insanely high game total and single digit spread make this an ideal spot to stack considering the lack of other elite game environments to choose from – so far we have locked in Steph Curry and a few key value plays which open up the path to stack up our front courts with the players from this game!
Kevin Durant ($10,300) and Andre Igoudala ($3,900): KD just dropped 49 FD points against this very same Sixers team in only 28 minutes of action so the upside here is simply massive assuming we get a full complement of run tonight! Igoudala missed this contest the first time around for rest, but watching him against the Celtics on Thursday night, we saw the explosive presence he can have off the Warriors bench while being locked into roughly 25 minutes a night for Golden State! The Sixers are ranked 22nd in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season so stacking up the KD/Iggy combo tonight allows you to gain exposure to the Warriors while attacking one of the weakest positions defensively for Philadelphia.
Draymond Green ($7,900) is the one player in this game that seems a tad bit underpriced considering he just dropped 52.5 FD points against this Sixers team on the back of a very Draymond line – 10 points, 10 board, 7 assists, 5 blocks and 2 steals. Green is perhaps the best point per dollar player to target in this slate!
Dario Saric ($4,600): So far our only Philly exposure is a back-up guard at minimum price so let’s rectify that by locking in Saric at this sub $5k price point who has played 33+ minutes in three of his last four games. Saric is averaging 25 FD points per game over his last five contests which would deliver a very solid 5.5x value at this price point and considering the minutes consistency and elite game environment, he makes for a great pairing at PF with Draymond Green.
Joel Embiid ($11,000): This is the play that makes or breaks the slate in my opinion as choosing how to play The Process is going to determine your fate tonight. On one hand we are getting a player that just dropped 93.5 FanDuel points against the Lakers and has now played 34 and 35 minutes in each of his last two games which considering this is a player with 1.6 FP/M output makes him a scary fade.
The other side of the coin here is we have seen the Warriors go small countless times against teams with big Centers like Hassan Whiteside earlier in the year and they did the same to Embiid a few days ago where he played only 25 minutes and logged 22 FD points.
The $11k price point is usually reserved for our studs with steady floors but the match-up here makes Embiid more of a GPP play in my mind as if the Warriors go small, it could force Embiid off the court again! However if Embiid stays on the floor and Philly forces Golden State to match their game, we could see another massive outing that would leave you on the outside looking in from a cash line perspective if The Process does what he is capable of doing!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Stephen Curry ($9,000)
PG: Mario Chalmers ($3,900)
SG: Donovan Mitchell ($6,400)
SG: Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,000)
SF: Kevin Durant ($10,300)
SF: Andre Igoudala ($3,900)
PF: Draymond Green ($7,900)
PF: Dario Saric ($4,600)
C: Joel Embiid ($11,000)
Slate Overview: Going into this slate I was looking at how I could conceivably game stack this Golden State/Philadelphia game and I think I have found a reasonable path to doing so using some of the key value plays like Mario Chalmers. We will continue to look for value throughout the day as any way we can load up our exposure to this marquee game will be a great way to attack this slate!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis.