FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Sunday November 19
Welcome to the Sunday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Saturday’s winning tournament line-ups put up 362 FanDuel points with a strong core built around the Warriors and Sixers stars as Stephen Curry (49), Kevin Durant (45) and Ben Simmons (52) all put up big numbers and the value plays in Utah continues to shine as Donovan Mitchell (30.7), Rodney Hood (41.7) and Derrick Favors (47.7) all went off for the Jazz!
Over the first 32 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 32 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Let me start off with some quick slate overview – FanDuel continues to split these Sunday slates into this brutal mini-slates as a result of the staggered start times. Frankly, this is why you have late swap and they should put the material tournaments on an all-day late swap rather than force us to play these mini-slates.
The two game early slate features two slow-paced low scoring games and the “Main” slate includes a Warriors – Nets game that could be over by halftime. With that being said, my goal today is to play the All-Day slate which means focusing on smaller field tournaments and league play as I believe this is the best approach from a contests selection perspective.
Jamal Murray ($5,600): The Warriors/Nets game may have the highest total on the board but it also has the largest spread at 12 points and with no D’Angelo Russell, I fear this is a spot where the game could be over by halftime and I am not willing to invest my salary in this game. Instead, I will look towards the Nuggets-Lakers game as a priority play as this game as the second highest game total and will be played at the second fastest pace with only a 4 points spread!
Murray is by far my favorite PG play on this slate as his match-up, price point and recent metrics make him the first guy in my lineups today! Over the last week, Murray has a 29.9% usage rate, which is second on the team and a 7% increase over his season long number. What has been most impressive to me is the sheer volume of shot attempts – 18, 19 and 21 – over his last three games while putting up 36+ FD points in two of those games which would eclipse 6.5x value at this price point.
Kyle Lowry ($8,200): Lowry has burned many DFS players early in the season with his lackluster play but over the last week we have seen a completely different player, racking up fantasy points across all categories and putting up between 41-44 FD points in each of his last three contests. At this price point, Lowry makes for a top raw point play better suited for cash games but that consistency could actually be valuable on this slate.
With Stephen Curry in a blow out and John Wall questionable to play, your top options become Kyle Lowry or Lonzo Ball so you will have to decide whether you want the solid floor of Lowry or the tantalizing upside of Ball. If you are playing the all day slate, the focus is going to be on smaller field entries so going for the “GPP shot” is not as necessary in my opinion which leads me back to the raw points of Lowry!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Bradley Beal ($7,900): Let’s not bury the lead on this slate – the status of John Wall is going to determine ALOT on this slate and thankfully it is the very first game on the slate so if you are playing the All-Day slate then you will have the most critical piece of news for your roster build. If Wall is out, then you know what to do – you lock in Bradley Beal who has a team leading 38.1% usage rate this year with Wall off the floor which is a 8% increase over his season long numbers.
If Wall is in, you can easily pivot to Victor Oladipo ($7,900) at the same exact price point as the Pacers SG put up 53.5 FD points against this same exact Miami Heat team in their earlier season meeting. Keep in mind that this early season meeting was without Hassan Whiteside so the sledding won’t be nearly as easy for Oladipo today but this is a player who consistently goes over-looked in tournaments but has the ability to drop 40-50 FanDuel points routinely so locking him in as a pivot off Beal makes for a great GPP strategy!
Justin Holiday ($5,700): The Bulls are not a team I recommend, well….ever…but today they get the Golden Ticket – a match-up with the Phoenix Suns! The Bulls see the second largest pace boost on the slate and a massive THIRTEEN point projected scoring increase over their season long average!
This price point on Holiday feels like a free square today as we get a high volume shooter in a fast paced game against a Suns team ranked 29th in DvP against opposing SG’s this season! In his last five games, Holiday has hit 40 FD points twice which would provide 7x value at this price point and none of those match-ups were as juicy as this one with the Suns – Holiday is a lock and load play for me today in all formats!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Plays:
Jimmy Butler ($8,300): Butler has not been a player I have rostered often this season as he has struggled to fit into his new team and scheme but I think we need to re-asses his value for DFS purposes at this point. Butler has an interesting marriage value wise as a player who is locked into major minutes each and every night and plays for perhaps the best coach in the NBA when it comes to tight rotations and giving his starters major minutes.
Butler has made a point to be more aggressive recently and it is showing in his results as he has double-digit shot attempts in five straight games and has seen his usage tick up 4-5% over the last two weeks from his season average.
C.J. Miles ($4,100): With Norman Powell already ruled out for this game – we should see the value SF’s for Toronto become a popular roster path again today which is PERFECT considering the match-up against a Wizards team that struggles to defend the wing as evidenced by their 29th DvP rating against the SF position!
Miles has hit 5x value in each of his last three games with Powell off the court and has hit 6x or more in two of those three so you can simply fire him up at this price point today and use your salary savings to pay up in other spots.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
Hassan Whiteside ($8,900): Center is LOADED on this slate and this is the position I feel like you simply have to get right if you want any chance of winning/cashing today. With KAT, Andre Drummond and Nikola Jokic all priced above him, I think Whiteside is the best point per dollar play and also feels like the top raw point performer in this match-up with Indiana.
Whiteside will take on a Pacers team ranked 29th in DvP versus opposing Centers and absolutely dominated this team last season putting up 50+ FD points in two of his three match-ups with his “low-water” mark coming in at 45 FD points which would still give you solid 5x cash game value at this price point.
Paul Millsap ($7,500): Heading back to the Nuggets-Lakers game, if we are opting to pivot off Jokic at Center than I think pairing Whiteside with Millsap at PF is a great way to mix and match your exposure and roster build. The Lakers are ranked 25th in DvP versus opposing PF’s this season and Millsap comes into this game putting up 45 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four games which would give you 6x value at this price point!
If you need a value play tonight, the injury to Serge Ibaka could open up another start for Pascal Siakam ($3,700) who started against the Knicks, played 34 minutes and put up 35 FanDuel points. At this price point, another start would make Siakam the best pure value play on the board and I love the idea of using some of the key value plays from Toronto (Miles/Siakam) to open up salary elsewhere today!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Kyle Lowry ($8,200)
PG: Jamal Murray ($5,600)
SG: Bradley Beal ($7,900) or Victor Oladipo ($7,900)
SG: Justin Holiday ($5,700)
SF: Jimmy Butler ($8,300)
SF: C.J. Miles ($4,100)
PF: Paul Millsap ($7,500)
PF: Pascal Siakam ($3,700)
C: Hassan Whiteside ($8,900)
Slate Overview: My goal is to play the All-Day slate today as I feel as if the roster build works much better under those constructs and will adjust my contest selection accordingly. Keep an eye on the injury news to John Wall as the biggest piece of news we need to wait on and adjust accordingly. Good luck today all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!