Fantasy Baseball 2018: Is Robbie Ray top-10 worthy?

The Diamondbacks have a solid starting rotation, second-best in the NL West. After the season Robbie Ray had, can he reach top-10 status?

The Arizona Diamondbacks surprised us all with their 93-win season. While the offense got a boost with the addition of JD Martinez, the starting rotation was dominant all season. Robbie Ray had his breakout season and is on the verge of being a top-10 starting pitcher.

In his third full season, Ray won 15 games and posted a 2.89 ERA, 1.154 WHIP and 3.72 FIP. While he only made 28 starts, he matched his strikeout total from the previous year, 218. He also matched his walk total of 71.

Ray had a 12.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 162 innings. He received an All-Star game appearance and finished seventh on the NL Cy Young voting. All this at the ripe age of 25.

More from Fantasy Baseball

Though, Ray saw some regression in his batted ball stats. Opposing batters got more balls in the air in 2017. His ground ball rate dropped from 45.7 to 40.3 percent while his fly ball rate went up from 32.6 to 40.3 percent. Yet, his HR/FB rate remained at 15.6 percent.

Pitching in Chase Field doesn’t do pitchers any good. It finished third in runs, fourth in home runs and sixth in hits. However, with the news of the humidor being installed in 2018, the home-run rate in Arizona could be cut in half. This bodes well for all pitchers throwing in Chase Field.

Back to Ray, he threw more strikes in 2017 and making batters miss. He had a swinging strike rate of 14.2 percent (fifth among pitchers with at least 160 IP), 59.9 first-pitch strike rate (41st) and 67.9 contact rate (first).

With the ability to throw hard with a 94 MPH fastball and mix in his offspeed stuff successfully, Ray should continue to strike out opposing batters. Three of the four teams he faces in the NL West finished 22nd or worst in batting average. Three finished in the top half in strikeouts and two were 29th and 30th in RBI.

Ray ranks as the 15th-best starting pitcher by FantasyPros and No. 16 by ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft. I have him at No. 16 as well. Among the pitchers ranked ahead of him are Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco and Justin Verlander.

After the second-half Verlander had, that makes sense. Archer was a disappointment in 2017. If he’s traded that may change but I would rather have Ray over Archer. Carrasco had a higher ERA but the rest of his stats outperformed Ray. That is a position battle worth analyzing some more.

Next: Prospect Ronald Acuna fantasy relevant in 2018?

If Ray can reach the 30 starts/200 IP plateau, he will easily finish as a top-10 pitcher. His HR/9 will likely drop to below 1.0 if the humidor is installed before Opening Day. Until then, you should draft him with confidence in the sixth round as your No. 2 starting pitcher.

Home/Fantasy Baseball