Giants' Buster Posey: Maybe still the best catcher in fantasy baseball

Too many people are too quick to dismiss the disappointing season from San Francisco Giants’ catcher Buster Posey as a sign of his inevitable decline.

The phrase ‘disappointing season’ is interesting terminology for the second best player at the position last season.

There is no argument that Yankees’ Gary Sanchez had a fantastic season, and he will be one of the most valuable catchers in fantasy baseball for the next few years but do not dismiss Buster Posey’s track record of elite production.

This is not a Posey vs. Sanchez article, but it is difficult not to compare the only two catchers expected to be taken in the first five rounds.

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In 2017, Posey had an ADP of 42 with Sanchez going on average 11 picks later at 54. This season, you will probably need to invest a second round pick to secure Sanchez’s services.

The potential of your catcher hitting 30 home runs makes Sanchez very tough to resist on draft day but how many times have we been let down by sluggers failing to make adjustments? And how many times have the shiny, new superstars been over-drafted following their breakout year?

It is difficult to project that Sanchez will match his stellar 2017. After all, look at the unexpected drop in production we saw from Mookie Betts and Kris Bryant this season.

Posey’s Giants endured a dreadful season, and it is safe to expect his supporting cast will be better in 2018.

He hit 12 home runs with 62 runs, 67 RBI and six stolen bases. The RBI total was a career-low, and he also posted the lowest HR/FB rate of his life. Expect both stats to normalize in 2018.

Although the counting stats were disappointing, his ratios were excellent. Not only did Posey record his highest batting average since his MVP-winning season of 2012 (0.320 AVG) but he also posted his highest OPS of .861 since the MVP year.

Posey is still one of the most patient hitters in the game. He has not struck out more than 70 times in any of the last five seasons and regularly posts almost 1-to-1 strikeout to walk rate.

With age, Posey is now 30-years-old, there is the expectation that playing time will decrease. Although last season’s 140 games were the fewest he has played for six years, the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto was the only catcher to appear in more games. Posey made 38 appearances at first base, seven at DH and even seven as a pinch-hitter during his days off.

Obviously, there are red flags. Catchers tend not to age well, and Posey only hit two home runs in the second half of the season, but it looks like his demise is greatly overstated.

He destroyed left-handed pitching last season, slugging .568 on his way to recording 1.018 OPS, and the Giants face plenty of left-handers in the NL West.

I know I said this is not a Posey vs. Sanchez article, but it is surprising how close the players finished last season, despite their vastly differing fortunes. They posted almost identical wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) of 128 and 130.

Using Fangraphs’ offensive WAR (wins above replacement), Posey had the slight edge. Sanchez hit 21 more homers, but Posey hit 42 points of batting average higher. They both saw similar playing time, with Posey having just 23 more at-bats, but there were less than 10 fantasy points separately them in Points Leagues.

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With Posey and Sanchez seemingly trending in opposite directions, more than 40 spots of ADP could separate the two players in 2018. This will represent the first time ever that Posey will be available to draft at a value. Don’t be surprised if the 30-year-old is the top ranking catcher at the end of the season.

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Giants’ Buster Posey: Maybe still the best catcher in fantasy baseball

By Gavin Tramps | Nov 20, 2017

Too many people are too quick to dismiss the disappointing season from San Francisco Giants’ catcher Buster Posey as a sign of his inevitable decline.

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