FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Wednesday November 22

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

Monday’s winning tournament line-ups landed above 400 FanDuel points as massive games from Victor Oladipo (73.3) and Russell Westbrook (65.2) were the key drivers for big time DFS nights and were often paired with a short-handed Nuggets team including Nikola Jokic (41.3) and Will Barton (37.7) in winning entries.

Over the first 34 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!

Over the first 34 NBA regular season slates it has taken 377.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought  prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:

Russell Westbrook ($10,000) and Stephen Curry ($9,500): After a “night off” from NBA DFS on Tuesday that had only one game on the schedule, we return on the night before Thanksgiving with a massive 14 game slate and a marquee match-up as the Thunder and Warriors battle in OKC.

Let’s start with Steph Curry and more importantly the status of Kevin Durant who is questionable to play in this game although he was able to practice on Tuesday. The fact we already have lines/totals released for this game leads me to believe that Durant will play in which case I will likely avoid Curry, but as the Warriors point guard proved last game, if KD sits you simply play Curry – end of story. With Durant off the court this season, Curry has a massive 40% usage rate, a 10% increase over his season long average while putting up an absurd 1.86 FD points/game.

On the other side of this game, we have Westbrook coming off a massive triple-double and 65.2 FD points and is still only priced at $10k. On Monday’s slate Westbrook was over 20% owned at $9.9k, now has flashed that crazy DFS upside AND will get all the attention due to the Durant revenge narrative so expect that ownership number to climb even higher. Westbrook last year in this match-up put up 60+ FD points in two of his four meetings with Golden State and steps into this slate as the 8th highest price star so if you are looking to build around one stud it is hard to argue with the price/talent/match-up combination here with Westbrook!

Eric Bledsoe ($6,400): For as juicy as the match-up in Golden State is, my favorite point guard on the slate is Eric Bledsoe and frankly, it is not all that close. From a metrics perspective, the Bucks have the third highest team total on the slate, they see the second largest pace increase of any team in action and their team total of 114 is 13 points higher than their season average. Now add to that Bledsoe is facing a team ranked DEAD LAST in DvP against PG’s and the fact that Bledsoe has put up 40+ FD points in two of his last three games (crushing 6x value) and you have a player who screams as an elite play.

So let’s see – top projected scoring team, huge point/pace boost and elite individual match-up – am I missing anything? Oh right, this game is against the Phoenix Suns…the team that Bledsoe was unceremoniously traded from earlier this year after his ” I Don’t Want to Be Here” Tweet.

THIS IS LITERALLY THE PERFECT STORM REVENGE GAME PEOPLE AND IT IS IN PHOENIX!!!!!!

This is the player first in every single line-up I make and it is not even up for discussion – Bledsoe is putting up 300 FanDuel points in this game based off my line-up optimizer which is really just me yelling random numbers – play the man people, don’t get cute!

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks

Shooting guard is an interesting position today as you have James Harden ($11,600) all alone at the top before you take a $3-$4k price plunge into the DeMar Derozan/Bradley Beal territory. On larger slates like this where I find myself wanting to spend up at other positions, shooting guard becomes a spot where I tend to look into the mid-tier and value range and I do not see tonight being any different.

Will Barton ($5,800)/Gary Harris ($5,800): With the news that Paul Millsap will be out for three months, a whole lot of usage just opened up for Denver and this is a spot I think we need to play heavy while the prices are still reasonable on these Nuggets fringe players. Harris will continue to start at SG and makes for a steady cash game play but he lacks the GPP upside I am looking for as he only has a 17% usage rate and puts up under a fantasy point per minute without Millsap on the floor.

Barton is the player I have the most interest in as he sees the biggest usage bump (2%) with Millsap off the floor and is putting up a FP/M of production without the Denver PF on the court. Wilson Chandler sat out last game but is expected to play tonight which could force Barton to the bench after a 37.7 FD point performance last game but he would still provide exceptional value in a pace up spot off the bench for Denver at reduced ownership in a reserve role!

Wes Matthews ($5,100) and Danny Green ($5,000): One of the things I do as part of my research is to pull up trend data and see how often players are hitting 5x/6x value over the last week to two weeks just to see if there are any players that jump out to me and when I did that today – I was shocked to find two players I typically scroll right past at the top of this leaderboard over the last week.

In the last three games both Matthews and Green are putting up 6.2x value, averaging 32 and 31 FD points per game respectively and if you expand that trend over a 15 day sample size they are both putting up between 5-5.5x value making them solid core plays tonight at low ownership levels.

Matthews over the last 15 days is putting up 5.5x value which would be the third best mark of any SG on the slate and will step into tonight’s game with 33+ minutes played in 7 straight while racking up 41.4 and 39.7 FD points over his last two games. Matthews has double-digit shot attempts in each of his last four games but it has been the 6 steals over his last two games that has really propped up his fantasy value. Matthews is not a player typically on my GPP radar but maybe I need to change that thinking as he is locked into major minutes/volume and has actually exceeded 6x value in 6 of his 18 games (33%) so far this season!

Green is in a similar spot to Matthews as a player I typically gloss over but his recent trends are forcing me to re-think that position! In his last two games, Green has put up 15 and 16 shot attempts with a whopping 21 three-point attempts and will now take on a Pelicans team with one of the worst DvP ratings in the league! Green has hit 6x value in 5 of his 16 games this season (31%) and with his combination of match-up and volume makes for an intriguing GPP play in the mid-range that most will gloss right over!

One play that jumped off in the recent trends I needed to dig into some more was Troy Daniels ($3,400) who is averaging 21 FD points per game over the last three and returning 6.2x value off the Suns bench. Interestingly enough, over the last week, Daniels has a 23.9% usage rate while putting up 1.1 FP/M and could be a solid GPP punt play at SG that goes largely over-looked.

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Plays:

LeBron James ($12,000): If you are looking for the highest game total, highest team total and fastest pace game – look no further than the Cavaliers and Nets as it checks off all the boxes for a fantasy goldmine with King James firmly at the center of all the action. LeBron has put up 55+ FD points in three of his last four games with his last game against Detroit, a massive blowout, being his only below par performance. Tonight at this price point you are going to need a minimum 55 point performance just to feel good about rostering him and the 11 point spread and home game against the Nets is enough to make you think twice about another potential blow out game however on large slates like this with enough value already on our plate, I think he makes for a core play and a very scary fade.

When these two teams played in Brooklyn a few weeks back, LeBron put up a massive triple double with 29 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds for 64.5 FanDuel points and LeBron right now is simply the entire show in Cleveland with a 34% usage rate over the last week (a 4-5% bump over his season long numbers) while putting up 1.4 FP/M. For as bad as the Cavaliers are right now outside of LeBron, I think this scrappy Nets team can keep it close and any  lengthy court time for the King is going to result in a massive fantasy outing tonight!

Allen Crabbe ($5,400): If you are playing LeBron tonight then I think you need to run it back with some Brooklyn exposure in the hope this game stays close and to also take advantage of a brutally bad Cavaliers defense. The place to attack the Cavs all year has been at SG where they rank 25th in DvP versus the position and we get the benefit of using the Nets SG at the SF position for FanDuel roster flexibility tonight!

Crabbe is locked into 30 minutes a night for the Nets, a rarity these days in Kenny Atkinson’s rotation, and is a pure volume shooter, putting up double-digit shot attempts and at least 8 three-point attempts in each of his last three games. Right now the Nets offense without D’Angelo Russell is running through Crabbe, Ronde Hollis-Jefferson and Spencer Dinwiddie and with Crabbe priced at a $2k discount to those guys, he makes for my favorite play of the group and an elite correlation play off LeBron!

If you have the salary and want to pivot off Crabbe, you can make the case for DeMarre Carroll ($5,800) who will be locked on the court guarding Lebron and crushed for 6.7x value in this spot the first time they met. If value opens up at Shooting Guard, I could also see paying up for LeBron and Kevin Durant ($10,000) in this spot and stacking the Westbrook/KD duo and hope the questionable tag reduces the ownership somewhat!

FanDuel NBA – Top Center and Power Forward Plays:

Nikola Jokic ($9,000): With Paul Millsap on the shelf for the next three months, the Nuggets once again become The Joker’s show and we saw last year what kind of damage he can do as the primary offensive option in this Denver offense. Jokic sees a near 2% usage increase with Millsap off the court this year and we saw last game against the Kings what he is capable of as the primary interior option as he racked up 16 points, 14 rebounds and 41 FD points!

Jokic has put up 48 and 60+ FanDuel points in the last two meetings with the Rockets and frankly without Millsap on the court, this $9k price point is going to be the cheapest we see the Joker for a long time so jump on now while you can!

Kenneth Faried ($3,300)/Noah Vonleh ($3,500): So far I have told you to lock in LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and Nikola Jokic so you are going to need some punt/value somewhere and I think PF is the spot to do so!

As long as Faried is starting for Millsap he is a no brainer at this price point as he was able to crush 6x value in only 19 minutes of action against the Kings so any meaningful run would result in an absolute monster game at this price point.

Vonleh is a value play that will likely not get as much love as Faried but the reality is this is a starting PF who has hit 8x value in two of his last five games including a monster 42 FD point performance off his 11 point, 18 rebound, 3 block outing in 30 minute versus Memphis last time out!

On slates this large we tend to see winning large field tournament scores push over 400 FanDuel points so you are going to need to some big time stars and the value plays that crush value to fit them in so do not be afraid to take some chances at PF tonight which will open up the salary to spend on 2-3 studs in your roster!

FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here. 

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PG: Russell Westbrook ($10,000)

PG: Eric Bledsoe ($6,400)

SG: Wes Matthews ($5,100)

SG: Danny Green ($5,000)

SF: LeBron James ($12,000)

SF: Allen Crabbe ($5,600)

PF: Kenneth Faried ($3,300)

PF: Noah Vonleh ($3,500)

C: Nikola Jokic ($9,000)

Slate Overview: Nothing better to get you set for Thanksgiving then a massive NBA DFS slate loaded with stars, a marquee match-up in Warriors/Thunder and Eric Bledsoe Revenge! I love this slate and frankly cannot wait for it to start – best of luck to all of you tonight, enjoy your Thanksgiving with family and friends and we will see you back here for the NBA slate on Friday. In the meantime, check out our FanDuel NFL picks for Thanksgiving below!

Next: FanDuel NFL Picks - Thanksgiving Slate

Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your latest DFS news and analysis!