Reds Scooter Gennett: Is his breakout for real or a mirage?

Scooter Gennett’s breakout for the Reds last season was one of the biggest surprises in MLB. But, is his breakout for real, or just a mirage?

Baseball is a funny/cruel game. A year after being upended out of Milwaukee by the 2016 breakout performance by Jonathan Villar, Scooter Gennett turned in his own stellar performance for the Reds this season. In what was undoubtedly a magical season for Scooter, but can fantasy owners believe in the breakout heading into 2018?

Gannett teased fantasy owners with his offensive ability in Milwaukee, yet never put together one whole season of production. His best season, also ironically his last with the Brewers, saw him post a .263/14 HR/56 RBI/.728 OPS line.

The Reds claimed him in late March, a move that was largely overlooked by fantasy owners as it seemed he was ticketed for a bench role. But, even though he did not become the full-time starter at second base until July, he posted an unbelievable .295/27 HR/97 RBI/.874 OPS line.

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Gannett had a season for the ages as well, notching a four-homer game and blasting four grand slams, a feat only accomplished by some guy named Lou Gehrig. For a team that struggled last season, Joey Votto and Gannett formed one of the best lineup combos in MLB.

Like the aforementioned Villar, who was a bust this year, Gannett will be more one of the more polarizing fantasy selections in 2018.

Fantasy owners have to start with his batted ball data. In order to believe in a breakout, fantasy owners need to see tangible evidence of a change in approach or contact to justify the results.

Gannet posted 21% LD, 41% GB, 38% FB, 48% Med, and 34% Hard contact rates last season. Surprisingly, outside of his Med and Hard contact rates moving nearly 5% in the preferred direction, neither of his other rates were more than 2% different from his career norms.

While that would cause fantasy owners some confusion, he did make a drastic change to his approach last season in terms of where he hit the ball. Before 2017, Gannett never pulled the ball more than 37% of the time, but this season that number jumped all the way to 42%.

Take his solid contact rates, add in the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark, and that he was pulling the ball nearly 7% more than just a year ago, it is easy to see why the power jumped.

The next three areas that fantasy owners can look to are his Home/Away splits, LHP/RHP splits, and his monthly consistency.

With Great American Ballpark being such a hitter-friendly ballpark, his splits are important. Gannett passed this test though, posting a .307/16 HR/57 RBI line at home, and a .284/11 HR/40 RBI on the road.

Unsurprisingly, Gannett mashed righties to the tune of a .310/23 HR/77 RBI clip. He did not fare so well against lefties, .248/4 HR/20 RBI, which clearly lowers his ceiling.

Let us say that Gannett comes back to earth some against righties. maybe around a .280 AVG, and he stays right in the .250 range versus southpaws, he would still sit nicely in the .265-.270 AVG range.

The last area of importance in validating his performance was his consistency. In April and May, he only posted 98 at-bats, yet did manage a .296/3 HR/18 RBI over that span.

Once June came around though, he saw his playing time jump and things took off. Outside of a down month in August,.248/5 HR/22 RBI, he posted at least a .310/4 HR/16 RBI/.858 OPS line each month.

He hit the ball solid nearly all year, and all signs point owners to believe that he would have eclipsed the 30 HR/100 RBI plateau if starting from the beginning.

Scooter Gennett, of course, needs to prove that his pull-centric ways are here to stay. But, there is a lot to like in his game moving into 2018 with the Reds. His profile, consistency, home ballpark, and surrounding cast could propel him to another career-best season.

Next: Astros Evan Gattis: Full-time DH in 2018?

At worst, he offers a 20 HR/80 RBI type of line. The AVG will surely come down, yet as long as he finds a spot in the order behind Votto, the counting stats will be there.

Believe in Scooter.