Welcome to the Sunday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Saturday’s winning tournament line-ups pushed over 415 FanDuel points as we got some massive scores from the games biggest stars like Anthony Davis (56) and James Harden (62.4) but also some of the days best value plays put up GPP winning performances as T.J. McConnell (53.9) and Kyle O’Quinn (50) btoh dropped 50 burgers at bargain price points!
Over the first 37 NBA regular season slates it has taken 380.4 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 37 NBA regular season slates it has taken 380.4 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA -Top Point Guard Picks:
For once we have a Sunday NBA slate that is not broken into two mini-slates which is a positive but the reality is we have an underwhelming three game slate with a TON of injury news still left to sort out. We head towards a 3:30PM EST tip-off with questionable tags around three big pieces – Jeff Teague, Devin Booker and Hassan Whiteside – which could lead to massive usage changes and unexpected value opening up if any of these players are ruled out!
Tyus Jones ($4,500): With Jeff Teague ruled out last game due to an Achilles injury it was Aaron Brooks who got the “start” however only logged 13 minutes compared to Jones 32 minutes of action so do not be fooled by the starting designation here. Jones played well against the Heat, logging 33.2 FanDuel points on the back of 4 steals and would deliver greater than 7x value at this price point with a similar effort.
Looking over this slate there are only two teams with expected pace increases – the Grizzlies and the Timberwolves – so I think the smart play here is to lock in as much exposure to these teams as you can! The beautiful thing about Minnesota is that they play with one of the tightest rotations in the NBA, as they have 5 players log 30+ minutes last time out and no single bench player (if you count Tyus as the starter) logged more than 18 minutes. Assuming Teague is out again today, then the Minnesota PG is an exceptional value play and can be used in all formats!
Antonio Blakeney ($3,100): Point Guard is by far my least favorite position today and I think punting at both spots is the preferred roster build which will allow you to stock up at every single other position! Blakeney is not a player on a full slate we would normally consider but on a three game slate he represents a nice salary saving option that will come with low ownership! Blakeney has hit 6x value in two of his last three games and most impressively has been a high volume shooter off the bench for Chicago with 14 and 12 shot attempts in those games!
The point guard position in general feels over-priced with guys like Spencer Dinwiddie, Goran Dragic and Mario Chalmers all priced in the $7-$8k range and frankly I struggle to see the “must have” upside with any of these three players. If the roster build works then I would not complain with taking your 30-35 FD points but I truly do not see any of these players single handedly winning you a GPP and I think the salary can be better used elsewhere!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,800): So let’s see – a player locked into 35+ minutes a night, on a team getting a massive pace boost and facing a team ranked 28th in DvP against the position – yes please! Without Jeff Teague on the court this season, Wiggins is the starter who seems to benefit the most with a 2.3% usage bump and a team leading usage rate of 27.4% while putting up just under a fantasy point per minute.
The Wolves and Suns met earlier this season and not surprisingly we saw Minnesota employ their usual starter heavy rotation as all five starters logged 30+ minutes and EVERY SINGLE STARTER put up 30+ FanDuel points in that game! Stacking four Minnesota players with Andrew Wiggins at the core of it will be at the heart of my roster build today as he not only carries a safe cash game floor but added upside with Teague off the court!
Tyreke Evans ($7,700): No team on this short slate sees a bigger pace increase or projected point boost than the Memphis Grizzlies who will take on the Brooklyn Nets today and are currently projected for 109 points which is 9 points higher than their season average.
The beautiful thing about Memphis is that without Mike Conley on the floor, this becomes a very simple team to break down for DFS purposes. Over the last two weeks, it is incredibly clear that this is a two-man fantasy show as Marc Gasol (31.1%) and Tyreke Evans (29.8%) account for the majority of the team’s usage and are both logging over 1.1 FP/M. What I love about Evans from a DFS perspective is that he has a massively high ceiling due to his steals potential and in a fast paced game like this against Brooklyn, it should give him the game environment to thrive in!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Jimmy Butler ($9,000) sits atop the Small Forward pricing today and with the salary savings we get at PG, there is really no reason not to allocate your cap to him today at a relatively weak position. Butler thrived in this match-up just a few weeks ago, putting up 25 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 42.7 FanDuel points and on a short slate like this, has the raw point potential to be an elite play in any format.
T.J. Warren ($7,900): If Devin Booker is forced to miss this game, Warren will be the de-facto #1 offensive option for the Suns and frankly will become the only way this game stays close as he will need to carry the load for Phoenix against Minnesota. Warren, like Butler, thrived in this match-up earlier this season as he put up 35 points, 6 rebounds and 47.2 FanDuel points and pairing these two gives you the highest raw point potential at an otherwise ugly SF position.
If you are looking to save some money, the one player I would have interest in is Dillon Brooks ($4,900) who continues to start and log major minutes for the Grizzlies with 32+ minutes in three of his last four games. The game environment is ideal for getting as much Memphis exposure as possible but the reality is outside of Evans/Gasol the rest of these options are low usage secondary players and should only be used as “last man in” kind of plays!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
Taj Gibson ($5,600): At this point I am starting to feel like a broken record as Gibson, like all the other members of Minnesota played 30+ minutes and logged 30+ FanDuel points against Phoenix last time out, specifically scoring 36.4 in Gibson’s case. The Suns are ranked 29th versus DvP against PF’s so Gibson feels like an easy plug and play at this price point!
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($7,200): The more I look at this slate the harder it becomes to find the pivot plays to really differentiate yourself from the field with only three games to choose from. The Nets on the surface feel a tad bit over priced considering their match-up with a slow-paced Memphis team which is exactly why I expect them to be over-looked tonight! RHJ actually performed quite well in this spot last year, playing 48 minutes and logging 56 FD points against Memphis which would equate to just under 1.2 FP/M of production. RHJ will likely be ignored as the highest priced PF on the slate so this is a good spot to pivot off the field that will likely use Taj Gibson as over-whelming chalk!
Marquesse Chriss ($3,700): Chriss is the definition of a GPP play and the recent game logs will certainly do him no favors but it is worth noting the success he had earlier this year against Minnesota. In 26 minutes of action, Chriss racked up 13 points, 7 rebounds and 5 blocked shots for 39.4 FanDuel points which would simply crush value at this price point. Chriss will likely re-enter the starting line-up tonight after a match-up based benching last time out and makes for an interesting GPP dart throw tonight!
Marc Gasol ($9,200) or Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800): Let’s be clear here – Marc Gasol is going to be the overwhelming chalk tonight in a great spot against the Nets. Gasol is putting up 31% usage and 1.3 FP/M over the last two weeks and now gets to take on a Nets team ranked 28th in DvP versus Centers. It is going to be so hard to move away from him in this spot considering the price discount you get compared to KAT but this actually makes Towns an interesting lower owned GPP play!
We saw a similar situation last night with Joel Embiid and DeMarcus Cousins play out and Embiid was over twice as highly owned than Boogie and I could see a similar situation play out today which would make the more expensive Towns the intriguing GPP play! Towns has failed to top 40 FanDuel points in any of his last five games (again suppressing his ownership) but it is worth noting he put up 43.4 FanDuel points against this Phoenix team earlier this season after putting up 45+ in both contests last season!
As scary as it is, Gasol is THE strategic GPP fade to make on this slate if you truly want to pivot off the field and although it could sink you quickly, moving to KAT could be the lower owned play that makes all the difference!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Tyus Jones ($4,500)
PG: Antonio Blakeney ($3,100)
SG: Tyreke Evans ($7,700)
SG: Andrew Wiggins ($6,800)
SF: Jimmy Butler ($9,000)
SF: T.J. Warren ($7,900)
PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($7,200)
PF: Marquese Chriss ($3,700)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800)
Slate Overview: On a three game slate like this, I would play light/smart and do not be afraid to take chances in GPP’s to try to separate yourself from the field. Ultimately many of the plays I have laid out like Jimmy Butler, Tyreke Evans and Andrew Wiggins will be super popular but if you can pick 2-3 pivot spots you could truly find a path to move past the field!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!