Yankees Aaron Hicks: Believing in the breakout in 2018?

Aaron Hicks posted a career-best season for the Yankees in 2017. But, can fantasy owners believe in his breakout heading into next season?

The Yankees had a tremendous 2017 campaign thanks to key contributions from their young core, and contributions from role players. One of the biggest surprising contributors was the career-best season posted by Aaron Hicks. But, can fantasy owners trust Hicks in fantasy in 2018?

Aaron Hicks looked very much like a prospect bust, as he has never hit the ceiling that scouts had projected. He was sent to the Yankees prior to the 2016 season, and his debut was uninspiring, .217/8 HR/31 RBI/.617 OPS over 123 games.

Hicks still had a role with the team, but no one would have guessed that he would supplant Jacoby Ellsbury in center as the starter, and turn in a .266/15 HR/52 RBI/10 SB/.847 OPS line in the process. Outside of the steals, he posted career-high numbers across the board and was key in stabilizing the Yankees’ outfield.

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No one would argue that Hicks in stellar with the glove, but that never helped fantasy owners. The offense he showed, however, made him one of the best waiver wire finds, and he is locked in as the starter in center for New York in 2018.

Digging deeper into his batted ball data, the immediate stat that jumps off the page is the 6% improvement in his walk rate.

His K rate stayed at 18%, but the patience was tremendous, and why he moved all the way to the top of the order.

His 16% LD rate is lower than what fantasy owners would hope, but his 40% FB rate plays well at Yankees Stadium, as did his 43% Pull rate. He sqaured the ball up well too last season, posting a career-high 30% Hard contact, along with a 50% Med contact rate.

In terms of trusting Hicks, it is important to also note that his numbers were surely suppressed by him being plagued nearly all of the second half with two oblique strains. He was well on pace to post a .260/20 HR/60 RBI/15 SB type of line.

There are some concerns with his splits, he posted a .240/10 HR/33 RBI/.816 OPS versus righties, and a .312/5 HR/19 RB/.903 OPS versus lefties. Clearly, he is going to face more righties being a switch hitter, which will help his power but hurts his AVG. Yet, his AVG versus lefties certainly helps offset some of the AVG blow.

His home and away splits are a similar story, .248/12 HR/28 RBI at home, and .287/3 HR/24 RBI on the road. The power, of course, plays in his home bandbox, yet once again, the decent production on the road helps offset some of the dropoff.

Aaron Hicks will never hit the ceiling that fantasy owners and the Twins hoped for, but he has shown enough with the Yankees that he is worth a selection in fantasy drafts next season.

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His home ballpark plays well to his skillset, he is showing more patience at the plate and will have a prime spot near the top of a solid lineup. The counting stats will be there, as should something near a .260/20 HR/60 RBI/12 SB/80 R/.800 OPS line.