FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Tuesday November 28
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday’s winning tournament teams scored just under 370 FanDuel points driven primarily by monster outings from Andre Drummond (70.4) and LaMarcus Aldridge (64.5) who were between 5-10% owned on a slate dominated by guys like Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons!
Over the first 39 NBA regular season slates it has taken 379.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 39 NBA regular season slates it has taken 379.9 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Welcome to another injury filled slate where we still are awaiting injury news and thus only have Vegas data for three of the five games tonight. At first glance, this is an UGLY slate filled with low(er) totals and slow(er) paces as only one team tonight (Bulls) sees a pace increase compared to their season average!
Jeff Teague ($7,300)/ Tyus Jones ($5,300): The big injury news we are waiting on in this Minnesota/Washington game is the status of Jeff Teague is who is game time decision with an Achilles injury which if he were to sit out would mean another start for Tyus Jones!
Jones has been a revelation these last two games, racking up 33 and 51 FanDuel points on the back of 11 steals over those two games and would once again be an elite value even at this slightly elevated price point! Tim Frazier is actually a pretty solid defender on the other side of this match-up, ranking in the top 20 in DRPM this season at the position, however we know one thing with Minnesota – they play a tight rotation and the starters are locked into 30+ minutes a night! On a five game slate like tonight, building around that minutes security in what should be a close game makes for an ideal core with either point guard!
Tim Frazier ($4,900): If Jones does not get the start, Frazier makes for a logical pivot at the same price point as the new starting point guard for Washington with John Wall now on the shelf! However this may be a bit of a trap play as Frazier is not a high usage player, in fact he only has a 15% usage rate this season with Wall off the court which is insanely low for a point guard. In fact over his three previous starts this season he has logged only 21-23 FanDuel points per game which would not even make 5x value at this price point. Let other’s go this route tonight and we can look elsewhere for our PG!
Eric Bledsoe ($7,000): No player on the slate has a better individual match-up than Bledsoe as he will take on the Kings and De’Aron Fox who is ranked dead last among all qualifying point guards in defensive real plus/minus rating! Over the last two weeks we have really seen Bledsoe flourish in this Bucks offense, sporting a 30.3% usage rate and putting up 1.1 FP/M while putting up double-digit shot attempts in each of his last eight games. Bledsoe at this price point affords you a safe floor for cash games with one of the highest floors of any player at the position so he makes for a priority play for me at first glance!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards:
Bradley Beal ($8,300): With John Wall on the shelf, the rest of the Wizards are going to be core plays in the short-term on many slates until their prices fully adjust to their increased roles with Bradley Beal teetering on the edge of that already with a price point that forces you to think. From a pure metrics perspective, with Wall off the court, Beal sees a 6.3% usage boost – leading the team with an elite 37.2% usage rate while putting up 1.13 FP/M.
The issue I have with Beal is the price point as he will need to eclipse 50 FanDuel points to return GPP value, a number he has failed to reach yet this season with Wall off the court. The other problem today is the match-up as Beal is going to have Jimmy Butler defense all over him, the highest rated SG from a DRPM perspective in the NBA this season. From a raw points perspective, I certainly understand the appeal of Beal on this slate as he has relatively safe cash game value but with the likely high ownership and capped upside, this could be a spot for a strategic fade!
Devin Booker ($7,100): It looks like after a two game absence we will have Devin Booker back on the court tonight which would provide us a nice high upside pivot off Beal at the Shooting Guard position. The Bulls/Suns game is BY FAR the highest paced game of the night so building a core around this game may be a great GPP strategy in an NBA game only DFS players could love!
Booker is an elite volume scorer with 20+ shot attempts in five of his last eight games who puts up over 1 FP/M this season and comes at a $1.2k discount to the more popular Beal making him an intriguing GPP pivot in a fast paced game against the Bulls tonight!
Justin Holiday ($5,500): No team on the slate sees a bigger pace increase than the Bulls tonight, in fact they are the only team that sees a positive pace boost on the night which makes them an interesting GPP stack. The Bulls right now are playing a relatively tight 8-9 man rotation with their starters locked into major minutes and we saw this script play out on Sunday with Minnesota where a starting unit all playing major minutes against the Suns could crush value as a team stack! The Suns are ranked 29th in DvP versus opposing SG’s on the season so the match-up could not be much better for Holiday who has double-digit shot attempts in 9 of his last 10 games!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Denzel Valentine ($6,200): Valentine is coming off one of his best games of the year with a 14 point, 13 rebound, 7 assist game against the Heat and takes the court in the best game environment of the night. What I love about the Bulls stack on this slate is that they are all very reasonably priced in the mid-range so it is easy to stack them and maximize your exposure to this game! Valentine has hit GPP value in two of his last four games while playing 36 minutes or more in three of his last fives games which gives him a combination of minutes security and match-up upside to make him an elite GPP target!
Otto Porter ($7,300): If you choose to play the Bradley Beal fade in GPP’s, you cannot ignore Washington altogether and will need to get your exposure elsewhere as there is simply too much usage with John Wall off the court to avoid this spot! Porter sees a 5% usage bump with Wall off the court and is coming off 51 point game against Portland his last time out so the upside is clearly there and he will likely match-up with Andrew Wiggins who has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any SF on the slate!
LeBron James ($12,000) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800): Not to bury the lead here, but the two clear top dogs on this slate reside at this position and the question is do you roster one over the other or can you make the case to fade them both entirely? The reality is, at these price points we would need a 70+ point performance to pay off value and off the cuff, I am not seeing the obvious value plays that make paying up for either stud SF a wise investment tonight. LeBron will be on the tail-end of a back to back after playing 31 minutes last night and Giannis has only eclipsed 60 FD points one time since the calendar flipped to November. I will never argue with rostering either of these elite talents but on this slate, my gut is to go with a more balanced roster approach and let others chase these elevated price points!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
Lauri Markkanen ($6,900) and Markieff Morris ($5,200): Power Forward is an interesting spot on this slate as we do not have a single player priced above $7k and a variety of solid options all in jammed in this $5-6k price point. Markkanen and Morris are the two players that jump out to me within this roster build to expand on the foundation we have already started to create at the other positions.
Markkanen’s price is getting to a point where his recent game log may scare some people away but tonight against a Suns team ranked 30th in DvP versus opposing PF’s, we could see him return to the 30-40 FD points mark he was routinely hitting before this cold streak!
Markieff is perhaps my favorite play at the position as he is now finally off his minutes restriction and will be tasked with a significant portion of the offensive load for the Wizards with John Wall out. Looking over the last two seasons, no player on Washington sees a bigger usage boost than Morris with Wall off the court as his 7% usage boost puts him at 29% with a FP/M of production! At this price point tonight and with 30+ minutes, it is only a matter of time before we get the Markieff breakout game and on this short(er) slate, I am willing to roll the dice tonight!
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500): Center is the one position on this slate that feels loaded with options so sorting through and making the right investment will be critical to your success on this slate. KAT is coming off one of his best games of the year with 32 points and 12 rebounds and tonight will take on a Washington Wizards team he averaged 50 FD points against in two meetings last season! From a DvP perspective, all the elite centers on the board draw less than ideal match-ups so I will side with the player with the most minutes security in Towns who unlike players like Hassan Whiteside, is essentially guaranteed for 35 minutes a night and with a good amount of Wizards exposure in this build, I love the correlation that running it back with KAT brings me!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Eric Bledsoe ($7,000)
PG: Tyus Jones ($5,200)
SG: Devin Booker ($7,100)
SG: Justin Holiday ($5,500)
SF: Otto Porter ($7,300)
SF: Denzel Valentine ($6,200)
PF: Lauri Markkanen ($6,900)
PF: Markieff Morris ($5,200)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500)
Slate Overview: The biggest decision you will have to make tonight is how you intend to treat LeBron and Giannis and whether their price points are worth the investment. Without a ton of obvious elite value this slate is setting up at first glance to be a more balanced roster build with a core focus on the Bulls (yikes) who see the biggest pace boost and best possible team match-up against the Suns!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!