FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Wednesday November 29
Welcome to the Wednesday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning tournament line-ups fell just short of 400 FanDuel points as we got monster nights from the games biggest stars as LeBron and Giannis both topped 60 while lower owned players like Kevin Love, Devin Booker and Derrick Favors all went for 50+ FD points to set up some big time GPP winning teams!
Over the first 40 NBA regular season slates it has taken 380.3 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 40 NBA regular season slates it has taken 380.3 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Welcome to a big time 10 game slate on Wednesday where we have a few potential blow out spots and some key injuries to monitor throughout the day which will significantly change the outlook of this slate. The Warriors Big Two of Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry are both questionable to play but considering they practiced on Monday, I will for the sake of this article assume they play and when the Warriors are at full strength, I tend to look elsewhere! We have other big names with injury tags including Kemba Walker, Victor Oladipo and DeMar DeRozan which could open up big time usage for other players and it will be critical to watch this during the day!
T.J. McConnell ($6,400): The one player I failed to mention above is Ben Simmons who left the game Monday against the Cavaliers with a sprained ankle and although x-rays came back negative, he remains questionable for this game with the John Wall-less Wizards. Of all the players with injury questions, Simmons feels like the one we could prepare for sitting out as a team like the Sixers is simply not putting one of their franchise cornerstones on the court for a relatively meaningless regular season game if they are even remotely less than 100%.
Assuming that holds, we would likely see McConnell slide back into the starting line-up at point which is where he was over the weekend against Orlando when he dropped 54 FanDuel points on the back of 15 points, 13 assists, 7 rebounds and 3 steals. We saw last night that opposing PG’s can attack the Wizards back-court with Wall out as Tyus Jones dropped 30+ FD points in his start against them so McConnell has a match-up we can certainly exploit and we know he has the multi-category upside we covet in tournaments.
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,800): The Dallas Mavericks see the largest pace boost of any team on the slate tonight as they face off with the Brooklyn Nets in Dallas which puts DSJ in an exceptional spot tonight at this price point. Brooklyn is doing an incredible job competing considering how depleted this roster is and Kenny Atkinson deserves some serious accolades for the job he is doing, but for those of us playing DFS we know the drill by now – the Nets play at a lightning pace and give up fantasy points in bunches to essentially every position.
The Mavericks rookie has failed to see 30+ minutes of action in recent games which has brought the price down to a sub $6k level but what has not fallen off with DSJ is the sheer volume of shot attempts as he has put up 14 or more shot attempts in each of his last four games. Over the last two weeks, Smith Jr. has a 31% usage rate which is not only the top mark on the team but also a 4% increase over his season average and this is the perfect match-up to align his talent, usage and depressed price point for GPP upside!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards:
Bradley Beal ($8,300): If you are reading this article then I want you to ask yourself – were you one of the people who flocked to Bradley Beal at 40% plus ownership in GPP’s even though the match-up against the Minnesota wing defenders was brutal? If you were lucky/smart enough to have faded his 21 FD point dud or if you are still reeling from the wasted bankroll, simply forget what happened yesterday and go ALL IN TODAY.
There is nothing better in tournaments than going back to a guy who was massive chalk and busted the night before especially on a 10 game slate like this where everyone has a plethora of options to pivot to. Every reason you liked Beal yesterday still applies – massive usage blah blah blah without Wall – yes, none of that changed. What DID change however is the match-up as he goes from facing one of the best defenders in Jimmy Butler to being matched up with J.J. Redick, who has one of the worst DRPM ratings of any SG on the slate.
Want proof? These two teams played already one time this season and in that game Beal dropped 48.2 FD points against the Sixers and Mr. Redick while John Wall was on the court so tonight this is an ideal spot to go back to the player everyone and their mother touted yesterday and will now jump off.
Wayne Ellington ($3,500) DFS is a funny game for those of us who simply love the research as I know for me personally, digging into players and trying to uncover someone who may be overlooked is the primary enjoyment I get out of the game. Yesterday, I was looking to find value and came across Ellington who has crushed 6x value in three of his past four games and was going up against a Cleveland team that has struggled against SG all year. As I normally do in DFS, I had two line-ups last night which build off the same core and simply have 1-2 pivots and come lock I was staring at 100% Wayne Ellington at 3-4% ownership. I watched as the Heat got dismantled and was all set for Wayne Ellington garbage time and promptly watched him come in – brick a three, then air ball his next and I went to the fridge for another beer.
The underlying data here suggests I should give Wayne a second chance as he has 11 games this season with 6 or more three-point attempts and in those 11 games he has hit 5x value in 8 of them while going for 7x in 5 of those contests. Tonight he takes on a New York Knicks team giving up the most three-point attempts per game while also giving up the 6th highest three-point % in the NBA so the match-up seems ideal for this to be a volume night for Ellington that he could crush once again in. Considering that he was under 5% owned on a small slate last night and put up a dud, Wayne could be 1-2% owned tonight and provide massive returns….or he could dud and I will get angry tweets, either way – I have beer.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Plays:
Robert Covington ($6,200): As you can tell, I am very hopeful that Ben Simmons sits tonight as I am looking to get some serious Sixers exposure this evening with Sir Covington high on my list of targets against the Wizards. This game has the second highest projected pace (although no spread yet) so I love looking at Covington in these game environments and considering that the Wizards have struggled all year with opposing wings (as evidenced by their 29th DvP ranking versus SF), this is the perfect spot to fire him up tonight.
These two teams squared off in the first game of the season and Covington delivered with 43 FanDuel points which would return nearly 7x profit at this price point and it is worth noting he dropped 50+ against them in their final meeting last season so the upside is clear for him in this spot with or without Simmons but he would see a significant boost if the rookie were to miss this game. We all know that Joel Embiid becomes a usage monster with Simmons off the court but it is worth noting that over the last two weeks, no player sees a bigger FP/M boost (over 0.3) than Covington! I love this spot for him tonight and the price point is simply too cheap to ignore!
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($4,300): Even with his return to the bench with Markieff Morris back in the fold, I think Oubre makes for an interesting value play with John Wall being off the court as he has seen 24 and 31 minutes the last two games with Wall out and has put up 26.7 and 31.8 FanDuel points which would give him 6-7x value at this price point! What has really stood out to me with Oubre in these two game is the volume of shot attempts as he has put up 12 and 14 shot attempts in each of the last two games and with the minutes/volume he is seeing in a big time pace up spot, I have no issue using Oubre as a high ceiling value play tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900): Watching the Cavaliers/Heat last night we saw a mobile big man with the ability to stretch the floor in Kevin Love absolutely dominate the Heat interior putting up 50+ FanDuel points in limited minutes and seemingly getting whatever he wanted both inside and outside while Hassan Whiteside and company looked on helplessly. The Heat now have to travel on a back to back to NY and face one of the most uniquely talented mobile big men in the NBA in KP and he is under $9k – yes please!
I got a great question on Twitter yesterday from a reader asking me what things I look for when picking players and I re-tweeted it and asked my followers to respond as well which brought some fantastic responses. One of them particularly stood out to me – to paraphrase, it was keep it simple, WATCH the games and see what match-ups you can exploit. This point is particularly relevant tonight as we just saw what a player like Kevin Love could do to Miami and have the chance to exploit the same match-up tonight with Porzingis!
Dario Saric ($5,700) One last Sixer! Saric is locked into 30+ minutes a night and has put up 6x value in two of his last five starts including one of those games where Simmons sat out against the Magic! If Simmons is ultimately ruled out I assume most will flock to Joel Embiid, but with another Center I want, I love the idea of targeting the other Sixers starters like TJ, Covington and Embiid and getting my exposure to this game environment that way!
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900): As great of a play as Joel Embiid is, there is simply no way I can pass on Boogie under $11k versus Karl-Anthony Towns defense. This is a crazy great smash spot for Boogie who has already dominated this exact match-up earlier this season when he logged 74 FanDuel points against this same Minnesota squad! The Pelicans have the third highest team total on the board and considering that Minnesota and KAT are ranked among the worst in the league at defending the Center position, this is simply a spot where you do everything you can to lock in Boogie against a Minnesota team that is playing on the tail end of a back to back and the third game in four nights!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
More from FanSided
- LAST CHANCE: $250 Guaranteed Bonus for Your Week 1 College Football Bet at DraftKings and FanDuel!
- MLB Rumors: Justin Verlander has a clear suitor, but it comes with a catch
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
PG: Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,800)
PG: T.J. McConnell ($6,400)
SG: Bradlet Beal ($8,300)
SG: Wayme Ellington ($3,500)
SF: Robert Covington ($6,200)
SF: Kelly Oubre Jr. ($4,300)
PF: Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900)
PF: Dario Saric ($5,700)
C: DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900)
Slate Overview: We get a massive ten game slate tonight and with a number of injury concerns we will have to keep our eye on the news but this is setting up to be a slate with a variety of elite game environments we can target. The Washington/Philadelphia game looks like one of my favorite spots right off the bat and I plan to use Boogie and KP in essentially every build I make! Good luck today all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!