Nylon Calculus: Russell Westbrook is not the problem

The Oklahoma City Thunder are currently 8-11, tied for ninth in the Western Conference. Their poor record overstates their early season struggles, but fans still want to find a scapegoat. In spite of an underwhelming (for his standards) start to the season, Russell Westbrook does not deserve all the blame.

First, Oklahoma City’s main issue is their offense; they are second in defensive efficiency but only 22nd in offensive efficiency this season. Westbrook is admittedly shooting terribly (49.6 true shooting percentage, the lowest since his sophomore year), but the Oklahoma City offense is still significantly better with him on the floor, as it has been for the past few years:

People call Westbrook a ballhog and criticize his often ill-advised shot selection, but the stats suggest he’s still a massive boost offensively. On-off stats may be noisy, but it’s hard to argue against seven consecutive years of positive impact. For reference, here’s the same graph for James Harden:

Westbrook’s current season is slightly worse than his previous three, but it’s still quite strong and in the same realm as Harden’s top seasons as well. Clearly, the OKC offense benefits from having Westbrook on the floor.

One criticism of the Westbrook-led offense is its dependence on isolation plays, typically one of the least efficient play types. The Oklahoma City Thunder currently iso more often than any team since Synergy started tracking the data:

But this isn’t just because of Russell Westbrook. This is the natural result when combining Carmelo Anthony, Russell Westbrook, and Paul George (ranked second, third, and seventh respectively in total isolation plays over the past three seasons) on the same team. If anything, Westbrook deserves credit for being the only one of the three to improve his isolation efficiency since last year:

Westbrook’s shot selection has actually improved this season (as expected, given his new star teammates). Last season, 30.7 percent of his field goal attempts came from the restricted area, and 30.7 percent came from mid-range. This year, 38.7 percent of his field goal attempts are coming from the restricted area, and only 23.1 percent are coming from mid-range. He’s shooting better shots; they just aren’t falling:

I’m skeptical Westbrook just suddenly became a worse shooter this offseason. Perhaps he just needs time to adjust to his new teammates. In the first season of the Miami Heat Big 3, LeBron’s true shooting percentage went from 55.5 percent in the first 19 games to 60.6 percent for the remainder of the season. Similarly, Dwyane Wade’s true shooting percentage went from 54.7 percent in the first 19 games to 59.0 percent for the remainder of the season. We’ll likely see something similar with Westbrook, so let’s not write off the former MVP in the first quarter of the regular season.