FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Thursday November 30
Welcome to the Thursday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning tournament line-ups pushed well over 400 FanDuel points as we had some monster nights from the games biggest stars like Russell Westbrook (65.7) but it was an epic performance by Aaron Gordon (78 FanDuel Points) at 4% ownership that really broke the slate and was the key cog in taking down some big time tournaments!
Over the first 41 NBA regular season slates it has taken 381.1 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 41 NBA regular season slates it has taken 381.1 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
After a brutal DFS night for me personally last night, I am quite eager to get back on the wagon tonight as my ALL IN approach on Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis felt really good at lock when both were only 10-15% owned and then went sour really quickly when both left the game with an injury. That is how DFS goes sometimes and it is part of why we hate it on given nights and love the fact we can instantly turn around and immerse ourselves in an entirely new slate.
Tonight’s five game slate is an interesting one in that we have a handful of superstars we are going to have to pick between and not a ton of overly enticing Vegas data to work with! In fact there is only one team on the slate that actually sees a pace increase tonight while all the other teams are either neutral or projected to play in slow down spots.
Kyrie Irving ($8,200): As I mentioned, there is only one team projected to see a pace boost tonight and that team is the Boston Celtics, as they take on a Philadelphia team that will be without Joel Embiid this evening. Kyrie’s production this year has made him a cash game staple as he has averaged 38 FanDuel points per game this season at a price point just a hair over $8k. Irving has already played the Sixers once this season and put up 35 FanDuel points in that meeting which frankly feels like his floor in this match-up, especially without an elite big man guarding the middle like Embiid.
Kyrie has exceptional usage/volume as he has put up 20 or more shot attempts in three of his last five games and as the floor general for the only team with a projected increase in pace, this is a great spot for Kyrie to push towards his DFS ceiling in GPP’s with one of the safest floors of any player on the slate!
Dennis Schroder ($7,400): If you are looking for a pivot off Kyrie tonight look no further than the Hawks point guard who gets an elite match-up against the Cavaliers porous defense tonight. With Mike Muscala already ruled out and now Dwayne Dedmon out for the Hawks, Schroder leads the team in usage rate at 31% while putting up 1.07 FP/M. Schroder has already faced this Cavs team once before this season and dropped 39 FanDuel points in that games which would exceed 5x value at this price point tonight!
Jamal Murray ($5,100): Murray is a Picks and Pivots favorite as his volatility makes him the perfect GPP play and his price point sets up perfectly to return a profit at just a shade over $5k. After a stretch of games where Murray seemed to lose his grip on the starting role and fail to play more than 25 minutes, he has played 36 and 29 minutes over his last two games while racking up 31.2 and 14 FD points in those games (again showing his GPP volatility).
Murray gets an exploitable match-up against a Bulls team ranked 26th in DvP versus the position and it is worth mentioning (as I always do with Murray), that he continues to put up a tremendous volume of shot attempts with 30 over the last two games. With Wilson Chandler and Paul Millsap off the court, Murray leads the team in usage this season and it is reasonable to expect that shot volume we have seen the last two games will continue for Murray which gives him the kind of GPP upside we are searching for on a five game slate.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Kent Bazemore ($5,100): As we mentioned, the Hawks will be without Dedmon and Muscala tonight and over the course of the season it is interesting to note that no player on Atlanta sees a bigger pace boost in that scenario than Bazemore at 4.2%. Bazemore over 171 minutes in that scenario is leading the team in FP/M with 1.2 and now gets to take on a Cavs team that is ranked 26th in DvP against the position.
Bazemore flourished in this match-up earlier this season, logging 14 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists and racking up 43.3 FanDuel points which would be nearly 8.5x value at this price point. It is rare that Kent Bazemore is an all-in play for DFS but the situation sets up perfectly for that tonight and his salary allows you significant flexibility elsewhere.
Alec Burks ($3,600) With FanDuel raising the minimum price to $3,500, finding these value plays is a bit more difficult with so many of these lower tier options now jammed together but Burks is a player that stands out to me as a result of his recent production.
Burks has now put up double-digit shot attempts in five of his last six games and has put up 20 or more FD points in five of his last seven games and has hit 6x value in four of his last seven games which makes him an intriguing GPP option this evening.
In the same game, I expect Lou Williams ($8,000) to be a popular option with the injury to Blake Griffin as Sweet Lou is the clear #1 option now and his 35% usage rate with Blake off the court backs up the fact he should be in store for some massive DFS nights. I think people are going to be in a rush to roster him tonight with the Blake news fresh in their minds but I look at this as a great fade spot for two reasons – first, the match-up with the slow-paced Jazz is who rank top 5 in DvP to both guard positions is about as tough as we could ask for.
Secondly, at this price point Lou needs a 50 burger to pay off value and many will see the game logs where he did just that in his last game and jump right on but it is worth noting that Williams shot a scorching 57% in that game over 21 shot attempts and considering Williams is a career 42% shooter, we can reasonably expect some regression here! I will look to play the fade here and wait until the price drops a bit, the match-up gets better before I ride the Lou Williams train!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Lebron James ($12,000) or Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800): On a five game slate like this, I think you simply need to make room for one of these guys as raw points tend to be critical on smaller slates like this one. The question tonight is which stud do you want?
For my money, LeBron checks all the boxes as he has the better match-up (Portland is quietly the 6th best team in terms of DvP), is playing at an almost unfadeable level right now and is coming off a game where he got ejected. Have you seen angry LeBron play basketball? Yeah, this is a SCARY fade tonight.
Both LeBron and Giannis have faced their opponents earlier this season with James logging 55 FD points against the Hawks and Giannis dropping 66, however that game for the Bucks was before they acquired Eric Bledsoe and with the usage drain that has meant for the Greek Freak, I simply would rather spend up for King James this evening.
Juan Hernangomez ($4,000): With Wilson Chandler already ruled out, we can expect Juancho to stick in the starting line-up for another game after logging 28 minutes and 22 FD points in his previous games which would easily exceed 5x value at this price point. Considering that match-up was against the Jazz and now tonight he gets to take on a Bulls team ranked 20th in DvP versus SF’s, this is a match-up where we could see easy 6x upside and the price point allows us to spend up on multiple stars within this roster build!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Ben Simmons ($9,900): With Joel Embiid off the court tonight, we all know the drill by now – the Sixers become even more the Ben Simmons show and priced under $10k after a 65 FD point game last night, he is going to ne insanely popular. The match-up with the Celtics is a brutally difficult one as they have elite wing defenders that can slow him down and we saw him only get 30 FD points when these two teams met earlier in the season. The case can certainly be made for a GPP fade but I think there is enough value on this slate to easily fit him in alongside LeBron/Giannis and that kind of GPP upside is tough to pass on tonight and it makes a great correlation play with Kyrie as our top PG!
Kenneth Faried ($4,000): . Faried is volatile GPP option who flashed 28 FD point upside in 31 minutes against Memphis before dropping back to only 18 points in 23 minutes against the Jazz. Tonight’s match-up with the Bulls is one where I think we could see the ceiling game again and it is possible we get a reduced ownership on Faried than what we have seen as Faried is now the “old value.”
If you are not familiar with this concept in DFS, it is one of my favorite, as we tend to fall in love with the value of the day and I think tonight we will see ownership flock to the Sixers front-court value in Amir Johnson and Richaun Holmes with everyone well aware that Joel Embiid is out. The Celtics are not a defense we want to attack heavily so this feels like a sport where the Sixers value plays become “bad chalk” and we can gain an edge on the field by pivoting off them and using a player like Faried instead!
Kevin Love ($7,800): Has Kevin Love stopped scoring on the Heat yet? My goodness! Love is coming off a MONSTER 55 FD point performance in only 25 minutes of court time against Miami and now gets to take on a Hawks team without Dedmon and Muscala in the middle? Whoa baby – this price point is entirely too low considering the upside and I love the idea of pairing James/Love tonight with some Hawks exposure on the other side to stack this game in GPP’s!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Kyrie Irving ($8,200)
PG: Jamal Murray ($5,100)
SG: Kent Bazemore ($5,100)
SG: Alec Burks ($3,600)
SF: LeBron James ($12,000)
SF: Juan Hernangomez ($4,000)
PF: Ben Simmons ($9,900)
PF: Kenneth Faried ($4,000)
C: Kevin Love ($7,800)
Slate overview: With some early value already apparent in Denver, I think you can easily build rosters with LeBron/Giannis AND Ben Simmons and still have a relatively balanced roster tonight.
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis.