FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Friday December 1
Welcome to the Friday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s Night’s winning tournament line-up fell just below 400 FanDuel points as the winning line-ups chose to pay up for both LeBron/Giannis and used elite value plays like Alec Burks (53.9), Amir Johnson (27.2) and Ersan Ilyasova (39.6) to build a stars and scrubs line-up that crushed value!
Over the first 42 NBA regular season slates it has taken 381.3 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 42 NBA regular season slates it has taken 381.3 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
At first glance tonight on this eight game slate, there are some pretty clear things we can identify relatively quickly to help guide our roster build. First off, of the 16 teams in action only 5 of them see a neutral or positive pace boost so we are looking at a ton of games/teams with slow paces and low totals that will help us narrow down our build.
Most notably we have two games, San Antonio/Memphis and Chicago/Sacramento that I think we can just cross off and make this as six game slate as all four of those teams are projected to score less than 99 points with game totals of 193 or lower and they all see the biggest pace decreases on the board which is amazing considering how slow these teams play to begin with.
Stephen Curry ($9,700) and Elfid Payton ($7,200): When you isolate this slate to six games, it becomes pretty clear there is one game that stands above and beyond the rest in terms of the base Vegas data as the Warriors and Magic have by far the highest game total at 227 which is 12 points higher than the next closest game. Additionally, this game has by far the highest projected pace with these two teams seeing the biggest pace boost over their season numbers of any teams on the slate.
Anytime you can take the Warriors and put them in a game environment where they see a point AND pace boost, you simply have to take notice and think seriously about making them a part of your core build.
The issue everyone will point to here is the 11 point spread and the “blow out risk” which is absolutely in play considering the pedigree of Golden State on any given night and because of that I would only recommend playing the Warriors as a core if you intend to stack/run it back with Magic players in the hope this game stays close. With the game being in Orlando I feel much more confident in the game staying close and want to get as much exposure as I can here.
There was some big injury risk with the Warriors coming into this game but late Wednesday almost all the big names were upgraded to probable with one exception – Klay Thompson – who remains questionable. Over the last two seasons with Klay off the court, Curry sees an 8% usage boost and is putting up 1.5 FP/M and now gets to face a Magic defense ranked 29th in DvP versus PG’s and 27th in Def-Eff versus PG’s. This is an elite match-up for Curry and I am sure there will be some rumblings that he isn’t fully healthy which is jus fine with me as an unhealthy” Curry just put up 40 FD points against the Lakers so if that is his floor stepping into an elite match-up like this priced under $10K, I am good to go!
Payton on the other hand is coming into this game on the up-swing with 46+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games which would put him right at our target GPP value at this price point and he makes for the perfect correlation play with Curry on the other side. Elf is one of my favorite kind of DFS GPP plays as his ability to contribute across categories gives him a massive ceiling and we are seeing his minutes and usage tick up significantly in the most recent games which sets him up perfectly for this spot tonight. In their lone home game against Golden State last season Elf put up over 45 FD points with 23 points, 10 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals and it is that kind of multi-category upside we are banking on again tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Alec Burks ($3,600): One of the things I truly have come to love about writing DFS articles each day is the back and forth across social media with our readers as the almost always good-natured ribbing makes for some fun trash talk as we see if my picks or the readers takes were correct each night. Last night I whiffed (for like the third straight time) on Jamal Murray and I swear I am done with him (until the next match-up I like) and my strong stance against Amir Johnson chalk night was met with some Twitter fun as he hit 4x value in like 30 seconds so I will happily take my L’s on both of those.
But this is my column and gosh darnit I am going to take a big fat victory lap on my boy Alec Burks who put up a flipping 50 burger at minimum price last night. Yes, I wrote him up yesterday and clearly I am a genius (ignore the Jamal Murray, Kent Bazemore, Juan Hernangomez picks – I got Burks right and frankly that is all I plan to remember)!
In all seriousness, a ton of sharp people around the industry I read and listen to where on Burks yesterday as well and although I am sure the ownership will be massive after last night, this feels like a spot you just eat the chalk and move on! Prior to his 50 burger last night, Burks had put up double-digit shot attempts in five of his last six games and had put up 20 or more FD points in five of his last seven games and has hit 6x value in four of his last seven games so this is not some isolated game we are chasing – there is a very real pattern of DFS output and if Rodney Hood is out again it only adds to the upside as Burks showed last night. Eat the chalk and move on – also you are welcome – and sorry for Jamal Murray.
Nick Young and/or Patrick McCaw ($3,500): Thank you FanDuel for pricing these guys the same so we can easily mix and match based off the news we get on Klay Thompson. With Klay being questionable and not practicing yesterday, this feels like the perfect spot to give the Warriors SG his first night off and with that would mean a starting assignment for either Swaggy or McCaw.
Over the last two seasons with Klay off the court, Young sees the biggest usage boost (3%) behind Curry and has put up just under a fantasy point per minute of production which gives him massive upside if he draws the start here.
The lack of minutes for Young with all the Warriors injuries makes me think that McCaw is more likely to draw the start as he did two games ago against the Kings where he played 33 minutes and racked up 43 FanDuel points in a game where both Curry and Durant were out so if Klay sits tonight I think we could see McCaw re-enter the starting line-up and either way the news breaks we can have this position covered!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Kevin Durant ($10,100) and Jonathan Simmons ($5,100): Let’s start here as I think you can absolutely pair these two guys and build off the same Magic/Warriors stack we already talked about throughout the article to this point. If you are stacking it up, then this route makes a ton of sense tonight! My only “issue” with Durant is the price relative to his upside – at $10k it is worth noting he has yet to go over 60 FD points this season and has only gone over 50 FD points in 4 of his 17 games this year. I would reserve Mr. Durant for GPP game stacks only as he will likely be the more popular Warriors option due to the Curry “hand injury” scaring people off him and will look to play the fade game otherwise!
Simmons has been inserted into the starting line-up and with Terrence Ross now sidelined his minutes are about as locked in as they can be after playing 33 and 34 minutes the last two games. I would only look to utilize Simmons in a game stack as the price feels a tad bit too high considering the fantasy output we have seen from him this year and his low usage rate however he has flashed 30-40 FD point upside earlier this season so the potential is there if this game turns into a shoot-out
Paul George ($8,500) and Jimmy Butler ($8,100): The Thunder and Timberwolves square off tonight so we have the ability to pair the next tier of SF’s against each other tonight in a game that should stay close (4 point spread to open) with two high usage, high volume stars that come at a significant discount to Durant at the top of the SF pricing.
These two teams have already played twice this season so it is an easy game to get a handle on what to expect as we saw George put up 40+ FanDuel points in both outings while Butler has put up 30 and 40 FD points across the two games. Locking in the 30-40 FD point base for both of these players is an interesting pivot off the higher priced KD and gives you exposure to one of the better secondary game environments of the night!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Aaron Gordon ($7,900): Wait, what? So let me get this straight – last game out Aaron Gordon goes for 40 points, 15 rebounds, 4 steals and 78 FanDuel points and his price goes up….$200? I am no algorithm expert but this feels like a mis-price to me considering that performance and now he walks into a massive pace up environment?
I suppose the FD pricing group heavily weights the defense of Draymond Green and admittedly this is a tough match-up for AG as he only got 23 FD points in their first meeting and he failed to top 25 FD points in his two meetings with Golden State last season so this is no slam dunk play by any means but AG is coming into this game playing some of his best ball with 38+ FD points in three of his last four meetings so I am more than happy to ride the hot hand here!
Kelly Oylnk ($4,900): With Hassan Whiteside out for a few weeks, the Heat will need to rely on Kelly O a bit more than they normally do as was shown last game against the Knicks when he put up 11 shot attempts for 18 points and 26 FD points which would return 5.3x value at this price point. Olynyk has shown this season that when given the run he can crush value as he put up 6x plus value in four of the Heats first six games of the season so the upside is absolutely real in this spot and he could exploit a Hornets front-court that would have trouble guarding him at the perimeter.
Jerami Grant ($3,600): Grant is an intriguing punt play who is locked into steady minutes off the Thunder bench having played 20 minutes in back to back games and hit for 6x value in his last outing against the Thunder due to his blocks/steals upside. In the first two meetings against the Wolves this season, Grant has played a significant role off the bench racking up 18.8 FD points (5.2x value) and 21.9 FD points (6.1x) which makes him one of the safer punt plays to build around tonight!
Nikola Vucevic ($7,900): Targeting centers against the Warriors this year has been a hit or miss DFS endeavor but Vuc was able to rack up 35 FD points in only 26 minutes against the Warriors in their first meeting! The minutes seem to be a bit more routine for the Magic center in recent games as he has played 30 or more minutes in each of his last 3 games while putting up a solid 33 FD points or more in his last six outings!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Stephen Curry ($9,700)
PG: Elfrid Payton ($7,200)
SG: Alec Burks ($3,600)
SG: Patrick McCaw ($3,500)
SF: Paul George ($8,500)
SF: Jimmy Butler ($8,100)
PF: Aaron Gordon ($7,900)
PF: Jerami Grant ($3,600)
C: Nikola Vucevic ($7,900)
Slate Overview: Breaking this eight game slate down to a six game slate it becomes much easier to manage and also makes the Warriors/Magic game stand out that much more. The Magic are priced fairly across their starting line-up so they make for an easy stack option you can pair with the higher priced Warriors stars. Assuming Klay Thompson sits out we could get the benefit of some minimum priced value to boot so keep an eye on this news and react as needed!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!