Nylon Calculus: 10,000 simulated NBA seasons
With the NBA regular season over 25 percent complete, the final standings are beginning to take shape. The remainder of the season can be simulated using a model to find all the fun, weird results that are possible. Here are a few, based on simulating the NBA for 10,000 seasons:
The Rockets finish with a better record than the Warriors
Entering the 2017-18 season, it seemed inevitable that the Warriors would once again dominate and sleepwalk their way to the one seed in the Western Conference. While the Warriors have been close to how good they were expected to be, the Houston Rockets are trying to give them a run for their money.
Out of the 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, the Rockets finished with a better record in 41.6 percent. In simulations, the Rockets on average won 62.1 games while the Warriors won 63.0 games. With how good the Rockets have looked upon Chris Paul’s return, there is reason to believe that this gap will only shrink. The Rockets have a real chance to pass the Warriors.
The Knicks or Pacers win more games than the Thunder
Over the summer, both the Knicks and Pacers sent their franchise stars to the Thunder. Both trades were considered wins for the Thunder at the time, especially their deal with the Pacers. The Thunder have really struggled to make their “big three” work, stumbling to an 8-12 record. Meanwhile, both the Knicks and Pacers have exceeded expectations due to breakout campaigns from Kristaps Porzingis and Victor Oladipo.
Currently, my in-season wins model projects the Knicks to win 41.1 games, the Pacers to win 41.0 games and the Thunder to win 46.2 games. This model accounts for preseason expectations, which is partly why the Thunder’s projection is still good relative to their current win-loss record.
Based on my simulations, the Knicks have a 22.2 percent chance of winning as many or more games than the Thunder. The Pacers have slightly lower odds, having a better record than the Thunder in 18.6 percent of simulations.
The Cavaliers finish with a better record than the Celtics
Brad Stevens is seriously a wizard, and Danny Ainge is a mastermind. Despite losing Gordon Hayward within the first five minutes of the season, the Celtics currently project to win 57.1 games. The Cavaliers have not had as much success, though there have been some positive signs recently with Dwyane Wade anchoring the second unit. The Cavs currently project to win 48.4 games.
In simulations, the Cavaliers finished with a better record than the Celtics in just 5.3 percent of theoretical seasons. The true challenger to the Celtics for the one seed right now is the Raptors, who finished with a better record in 40.3 percent of simulations.
The Jazz finish with homecourt advantage for the playoffs
The Jazz may have lost Gordon Hayward to the aforementioned Celtics this summer, but they have kept right on fighting. They currently sit at 10-11 and project to 41.3 wins total, though their early season schedule has been relatively easy.
Despite that, the Jazz finished with a top-4 seed in the Western Conference in 5.6 percent of simulations. If they can survive until Rudy Gobert returns from a bone bruise to his right knee, the Jazz have a chance to finish with a higher seed than last season.
The Spurs win fewer than 50 wins
As often cited when analysts talk about the Spurs decades of success, they have not won fewer than 50 games since the 1998-99 season, which was shortened by the lockout and only 50 games long in total. While they have stayed above water without Kawhi Leonard, the 50 win streak is in serious jeopardy. Currently, the Spurs project to win exactly 50.0 games.
Per my simulations, the Spurs finish with fewer than 50 wins 48.9 percent of the time. A coin flip to decide if one of the longest current streaks in the NBA lives on another year. The return of Kawhi Leonard in a few weeks should help bolster the Spurs’ odds of making it to 50 for the 19th straight season.
Next: Nylon Calculus -- NBA players on the bubble and the Moses rebound
The Bulls break the all-time losses record
The Bulls are truly a horrible team right now. They currently project to lose 64.5 games, making the playoffs zero times in 10,000 simulations of the remaining season. The tank is fully engaged. In 1972-73 the Philadelphia 76ers managed to lose 73 games, setting the all-time losses record. The 2015-16 76ers came close to matching it, but they only lost 72 games.
The 2017-18 Bulls are the current leaders in the tank house, and are dangerously close to joining the handful of worst teams ever. In 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, the Bulls tied the all-time loss record in 0.2 percent of simulations and set it in 0.08 percent. Those are minuscule numbers for now, but the possibility grows ever closer as the Bulls play worse and worse.