FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots – Saturday December 2

Welcome to the Saturday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

Friday’s winning tournament teams fell just below 400 FanDuel points as big night’s from Paul George (61) and Stephen Curry (50) mixed with elite value plays like Alec Burks (38) were at the foundation of winning tournament line-ups on this night.

Over the first 43 NBA regular season slates it has taken 381.7 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!

As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks – Early Slate

Normally I am not the biggest fan of these FanDuel NBA weekend split slates but I actually like how today’s three game early and five game main slate are set up so I plan on playing both! What does that mean for YOU, the Picks and Pivots reader? Well my friend, go get your cup of coffee and sit back and dive into TWO Picks and Pivots slates with me to kick off your weekend!

Kyrie Irving ($9,200): When looking at this small slate, the very first thing that jumps out at you is the Celtics 113 team total which is the highest of any team in action across both slates as this is a 10 point increase over Boston’s season long average! Add in the fact that the Celtics see the biggest pace boost on the slate and you will not be shocked to see a match-up with the Suns as the key reason!

The biggest “issue” with this spot is the blow out risk as evidenced by the 13 point spread with this contest being in Boston but on this slate I think the right strategy is to stack up four Celtics players as the core of your build because the match-up is simply too good to ignore with Kyrie having by far the best possible one to exploit!

On the season, the Suns are ranked 30th in both DvP to opposing PG’s and in Defensive Efficiency and have been routinely shredded by starting PG’s, giving up at least 35 FD points to every single starting point they have faced over the last two weeks (Reggie Jackson put up 33.7 last game in only 22 minutes so I am willing to round-up for this exercise).

In that same two-week period, Kyrie has really taken a massive step forward in his role in the Celtics offense, sporting a 35% usage rate and putting up 1.3 FP/M and has the ability to completely break this slate wide open in this match-up. The price point is reasonable enough that you can fit him in easily and I see no reason to even think about the fade here.

Dennis Schroder ($8,200) and Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,600): The real question at PG for me is which guy are you taking for your second PG spot alongside Kyrie. The Celtics/Suns game may have a bit more star power but this Hawks/Nets game looks to be DFS gold as you have the highest scoring game (219 total), the fastest pace game and only a 4 point spread so after you are done building in your Celtics studs, go ahead and start stacking this game!

As impressive as Dinwiddie has been for the Nets, I have a hard time passing on the Hawks PG in this spot as Atlanta sees the second highest pace boost on this slate and without Dwayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala AND John Collins today – the Hawks simply have no other choice but to lean on Schroder!

If you take all three of those guys off the court this season, Schroder sees a 6% usage bump, leading the team with a 37% usage rate and 1.36 FP/M and now gets to take on a Nets team ranked 25th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff versus the PG position. These teams played very early in the season and Dennis put up 37.8 FD points which frankly feels like his floor in this spot and I would make the point to lock in Schroder here, finding that little extra salary to move off Dinwiddie if given the choice.

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks – Early Slate

When you step back and look at this slate it becomes obvious that the Nets/Hawks game and the Celtics players are the first places to start and I think how you intend to treat the Suns and the third game, Dallas/Clippers, is what will separate you from the herd today.

The Dallas/Clippers game is one I am just ignoring on this slate as both teams see a pace decrease and outside of Lou Williams ($8,000), what do you really even want here? Williams at $8k is a complete stay away for me in this spot and I will let the crowd chase after him and Austin Rivers in this ugly match-up!

Devin Booker ($6,500): I just simply hate picking on the Celtics defense, especially when I know Marcus Smart is going to be chasing Booker around today but if you are stacking Boston (like I intend to), it makes all the sense in the world to bring it back with the highest usage/volume player on the Suns in the hope this game stays close.

Now let’s also take a minute to remember the last time Booker stepped foot in Boston to take on this Celtics team. It was March of last season, Booker was carrying the load with Eric Bledsoe off the court and Booker had a pretty decent DFS game by all accounts I believe.

Let’s see – Booker shot 21 of 40 that day, with another 24 of 26 from the line scoring SEVENTY real life basketball points that day on his way to a 96.5 FanDuel points outing. Listen, I am not going to sit here and pretend like another 96.5 FD point day is coming, that would be greedy – but I will take even 75 or 80 today if Booker wants to take it easy!

Kent Bazemore ($5,600) This man burned me in his last game, choosing to Baze significantly less than more, but I am not going to jump off when he has a fast paced match-up against the Nets staring at him. The Nets rank 27th in SG-Eff on the season and with Collins off the court, Bazemore is going to be tasked with carrying even more off the offensive load today for Atlanta. Bazemore is a fantasy point per minute producer, locked into 30+ minutes and in one of the best game environments on the slate so he is an easy plug and play at a reasonable price to get me more Hawks exposure!

FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks – Early

DeMarre Carroll ($6,300): With the pending return today (likely) for both Allan Crabbe and Rondae Hollis- Jefferson, the Nets should be getting two key cogs back into their starting line-up that will crush the value of some of the value wings we have been using here over the last few days. Rather than try to sort through that mess, you can get your Nets exposure by locking in one of the most consistent players at the position with Carroll who just simply puts up his 30-40 FD points each night in this offense and moves on.

The best place to attack Atlanta this season is on the wing as they rank 27th in DvP and 30th in Def-Eff to opposing SF’s and Carroll already put up 33.6 FD points in this match-up earlier this season which would return 5.3x at this price point. Carroll is not a player that going to necessarily “break the slate” with a 50-60 FD point outing but his consistent production makes him a great core play on this slate that builds you a steady floor and allows you the salary flexibility to take chances elsewhere.

Jaylen Brown ($5,900): Brown is coming off back to back poor games, logging only 17 and 7 FD points but gets the DFS version of chicken soup with a match-up against Phoenix that seemingly cures all. We have seen this season how Brown excels in this pace up spots putting up between 31-42 FD points against teams like the Nets, Hawks and Warriors so this is seemingly the perfect game environment to get back on track for Brown.

The mid-range at small forward is pretty loaded today as you can easily pivot to Allan Crabbe ($6,000) or Taurean Prince ($5,700) if you are building multiple line-ups today as all four of these players should be steady choices with the ability to rack up 30-40 FanDuel points in their respective match-ups so I have no issue using this position as your mix/match spot when trying to find ways to be different!

FanDuel NBA – Top power Forward and Center Plays – Early Slate

Marcus Morris ($5,000): Marcus Morris revenge! Morris gets to take on his former Suns team today – a squad he spent three years with before moving to Detroit where he faced the Suns four times and averaged 35 FanDuel points per game against them!

If you do not think revenge matters, check out this quote from Peter Forsberg of ESPN.com:

"Even with Phoenix next on the schedule, Marcus Morris didn’t want to talk about the Suns. “Honestly, I’m tired of talking about Phoenix. I’m in Boston, I was in Detroit. It’s evident what’s going on over there. The players, I have a great relationship with, it has nothing to do with them. It’s the ownership and things like that. I think they could be a lot better. The way they treat their players, what players go through, some people think because you’re paid a certain amount, everything else shouldn’t matter. I think they don’t do a great job there.”"

Over the last two weeks, Morris actually has the second highest FP/M production on the Celtics, putting up 0.97 FP/M and even coming off the bench we really do not see his role change much as he is seemingly locked into 25 or so minutes a night.

Ersan Ilyasova ($5,600): With John Collins out tonight, I would fully expect to see the Ghostface Illya enter the starting line-up for the Hawks after dropping 40 FanDuel points in his last outing with Collins banged up. Ersan is a volatile DFS player due to his streaky shooting but when given the volume, he has the ability to be an elite fantasy producer and with the Hawks front court decimated by injury he is going to get all the run he can handle tonight against a Nets team ranked 26th in DvP and 27th in Def-Eff to opposing PF’s.

Al Horford ($7,700): I would expect Aron Baynes to draw the start at Center tonight as he did against the Sixers so we can match-up with the Suns big bodies, which will shift Horford to PF where he excelled last game with 42 FanDuel points and now will take on a Suns team ranked dead last in DvP and Def-Eff against opposing PF’s – All the Big Al for me today!

FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview

Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.

PG: Kyrie Irving ($9,200)

PG: Dennis Schroder ($8,200)

SG: Devin Booker ($6,500)

SG: Kent Bazemore ($5,600)

SF: DeMarre Carroll ($6,300)

SF: Jaylen Brown ($5,900)

PF: Ersan Illyasova ($5,600)

PF: Marcus Morris ($5,000)

PF: Al Horford ($7,700)

Slate Overview: I am essentially turning this three game slate into a two game slate, ignoring the Clippers and Mavericks and putting all my focus on stacking four Celtics with Devin Booker and then filling in with Nets/Hawks players. This is a fun slate to play and I think you can make multiple variations off this same core strategy if you are looking to play multiple line-ups!

Now on to the Main Slate!

FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards – Main Slate:

Lonzo Ball ($7,000): Although we are still waiting on some injury news, the game that stands out to me tonight is the Lakers/Nuggets which has the highest projected pace on the slate and a TON of value to build around which makes it easy to pay up for the stud of your choice (more on that later).

Lonzo is a player I use often in GPP formats as his ability to rack up stats across multiple categories gives him massive DFS upside and that was no more evident than in his last game against this very same Nuggets team when he dropped 11 points, 16 rebounds, 11 assists and 50.7 FanDuel points and now will take on a Denver team that will be without Nikola Jokic inside? This is by far my favorite PG play for tournaments tonight as the price point has significant profit potential in this fast paced game environment.

Jamal…. No, don’t do it Brian.

Jamal Murr – NO, Brian stop it!

Jamal Murray ($5,100): Brian, you said you were done. You said it!

Ok fine fine, Rajon Rondo ($4,800): No you know what – FORGET IT! I am playing Jamal Murray again and you can all go fly a kite! I know what I said – I was done with him after burning me for the umpteenth time this season but how can you not just LOVE this match-up against the Lakers! With Paul Millsap out, Nikola Jokic now out and Wilson Chandler questionable, the offensive usage is going to fall to the Nuggets back-court and they will take on a Lakers team ranked 24th in Def-Eff this season.

Listen, I can totally understand the pivot to Rondo for a few hundred bucks cheaper who played 28 minutes last game and had a vintage Rondo performance with 37 FanDuel points on the back of 13 points, 8 rebounds and 11 assists. It is the smarter play and I am sure I will go there as well, but if you don’t think I am going to have Jamal Murray exposure then you my friend have not been reading Picks and Pivots long enough. I am a stubborn donkey who likes burning money but one night, ONE NIGHT – Jamal Murray is winning me a GPP. Don’t @ me with your Jamal Murray hatred – I am ALL IN! (Ok not really, but maybe).

FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Plays – Main Slate

Will Barton ($7,200): The price for Barton is getting up there but with so many injured on Denver, it is going to be the Will Barton show here offensively for the foreseeable future. Although Barton came off the bench last game, he played 35 minutes after the injury to Nikola Jokic and shot the ball a team leading 19 times on his way to 49.9 FanDuel points against the Bulls. The only issue I see in this spot is that Barton could draw KCP defense but the sheer volume and fact that Denver sees such a massive pace boost make him a scary GPP fade considering his scoring upside.

Kentavious Caldwell Pope ($6,300): There was a time last season that KCP was routinely priced in the $4k range at SG for the Pistons but since coming over to the Lakers this is a player who has seemingly taken his fantasy game to new levels flashing 40+ FanDuel point upside rather routinely.

KCP always seems to excel in these fast paced game environments and we saw him put up 39.5 FD points against this very same Nuggets team then they met a few days ago marking is third 40 point (with rounding) FD performance in his past five games.

Shooting Guard is the deepest position on this slate, which is interesting considering it is only a five game slate and this is usually an ugly position but we have a ton of players jammed in this $5-7k price range that make for viable plays. Gary Harris ($6,400) actually leads the Nuggets in usage at 32% this season with Jokic/Millsap/Chandler off the floor and is putting up 1.2 FanDuel points per minute and makes for an interesting pivot off Barton in this spot.

FanDuel NBA -Top Small Forwards – Main Slate

Lebron James ($12,100) or Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,400): It feels like these two are always on the same slates together and tonight we have a decision to make – are we paying up for one, both or neither?

I know it is a scary proposal but I think tonight is the night to fade both of them as the price points are getting too expensive considering the match-ups we have. Both the Cavs and Bucks are double-digit home favorites and they also see the two largest pace decreases of any teams in action as they take on the Grizzlies and Kings. There is another superstar I think we need to make the point to pay for tonight and LeBron and Giannis become secondary plays on this short slate from my perspective.

Juan Hernangomez ($4,000): I know he burned me and many others last game, but with Wilson Chandler questionable tonight, we have another potential starting spot for Juancho in an undermanned Nuggets attack. At this point the story is on repeat – no Millsap, no Nurkic and potentially no Chandler – the usage/output is going to have so come from some where and the Nuggets outside of Will Barton are all priced at levels that makes them elite value fill-ins. I have no issue going right back to the well with Hernangomez here at lower ownership as recency bias will keep people off him today!

Darius Miller ($3,600): Miller is one of those guys that seemingly nobody ever talks about, but I find myself using him often as a punt SF play and I can tell you on the last slate he was on he was under 1% owned in the $4 Clutch Shot. I really do no understand why as this is a player locked into solid minutes, having played 20+ minutes in every game since November 14th and has hit GPP value (6x) five games over that nine game span – this is not game log chasing, this is a player with a clearly defined role and production that the pricing has not caught up to.

FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:

DeMarcus Cousins ($10,700): This is the stud to pay up for tonight, plain and simple. With Anthony Davis injured and unlikely to play tonight you simple lock in Boogie against Portland and move on. Without AD on the court this season, Boogie sees a 4% usage bump leading the team with a 38.1% usage rate while putting up just under 1.6 FP/M. These two teams met earlier in the year and Cousins dropped 39 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks and 63 FanDuel points and now we get The Brow off the court – lock city kids.

Ben Simmons ($10,400): Fading LeBron/Giannis and using the value in the Lakers/Denver game will allow us one more stud to pair with Boogie and Simmons is that guy for me as the Sixers have the highest team total on the Main Slate at 109.8 against the Pistons. Simmons has already taken on this Pistons team once this season and amassed a triple double, logging 21 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists for 49.4 FanDuel points and should be well positioned to be one of the top raw point performers on this slate tonight.

Kenneth Faried ($5,200): One last Nugget tonight! Same old story – no Millsap, no Jokic and Mike Malone simply has no choice but to ride Faried on the interior for Denver. Faried showed the kind of 30+ FD point upside he has last game when he racked up 14 points and 13 rebounds against the Bulls and as long as he gets the minutes, should be able to easily hit value again tonight.

If you are looking for a pivot at PF, you could also pair Simmons with Dario Saric ($6,500) or Tobias Harris ($6,500) on the other side of this game. The match-ups are not overly ideal as both the Sixers and Pistons rank top 10 in defending the PF position but with this being the second highest paced game on the night and having a 5 point Vegas spread, it makes for an interesting pivot off the likely more popular (and volatile) Faried.

FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview

More from FanSided

PG: Lonzo Ball ($7,000)

PG: Jamal Murray ($5,100)

SG: Gary Harris ($6,400)

SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($6,300)

SF: Juan Hernangomez ($4,000)

SF: Darius Miller ($3,600)

PF: Ben Simmons ($10,400)

PF: Dario Saric or Tobias Harris ($6,500)

C: DeMarcus Cousins ($10,700)

Slate Overview: The Main Slate breaks down as follows for me – Lock in Boogie, stack the Nuggets/Lakers and get some exposure to the Sixers/Pistons game which may be over-looked even though it has a high total/projected pace. Enjoy these two slates today and have a great Saturday!

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks

Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!