Welcome to the Monday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s winning tournament line-ups ended just over 350 FanDuel points as winning rosters used the Spurs value that opened due to multiple players resting as guys like Dejounte Murray (44.7) and David Bertans (34.8) far exceeded value at their bargain price points and allowed you to pay up for some of the slates biggest stars like James Harden (56.3) and Jimmy Butler (53.6).
Over the first 46 NBA regular season slates it has taken 380.1 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 46 NBA regular season slates it has taken 380.1 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.3x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Kemba Walker ($7,800): After missing two games due to a shoulder injury, Walker practiced in full on Sunday and is expected to re-join the Hornets on Monday just in time for a juicy match-up with the Orlando Magic. The Hornets have the second highest implied total on the slate, projected to score 9 points higher than their season average while seeing one of the largest pace boosts of any team in action.
From a pure match-up perspective, this spot against the Magic is ideal for opposing PG’s as the Magic rank 29th in both DvP and defensive efficiency against the position. These two teams met earlier this season and Kemba racked up 34 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds and 62.2 FanDuel points and now we get Kemba at home where he averages 3-4 FD points more than his road average. The fact Walker has missed a few games and his injury tag on FanDuel may keep him off of people’s initial radar today but at just under $8k, Kemba has elite upside and makes for one of my favorite tournament PG’s on the slate!
Darren Collison ($5,900): Speaking of teams that struggle against the PG position, the Pacers will take on a Knicks team ranked 27th in DvP and 24th in Def-Eff that Collison has already excelled against this season. In their earlier match-up, Collison racked up 15 points, 10 assists, 5 rebounds and 39 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.6x value at this sub $6k price point.
The Knicks will be without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. tonight for the second straight game so this is a patch work Knicks team that we can attack with the opposition but I believe we need to be tactical with who we choose as there is the potential for a blow out with the Knicks which makes some of the pricier plays like Victor Oladipo a risky investment.
The Knicks struggled to contain Elfrid Payton on Sunday in a similar game script, allowing him to get 36 FanDuel points on the back of 15 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals and I could see a similar output from Collison tonight which would give you exceptional point per dollar value!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Devin Booker ($7,000): The Suns/Sixers game has the highest game total (227.5), the highest projected pace of any game on the slate and pits two teams against each other that see two of the top three pace boosts of any teams in action tonight!
Booker will match-up against a Sixers team that is ranked 23rd in DvP and 24th in Def-Eff and has put up 47+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games. Over the last week, Booker has put up a massive 37.5% usage rate while logging 1.25 FP/M and has put up 23 and 29 shot attempts in his two previous high-scoring games. With the fast pace environment and sheer usage/volume, Booker presents us an opportunity to grab another 40-50 FanDuel point game for only $7k which gives us massive profit potential!
Nicolas Batum ($5,500): For every reason we like Kemba Walker tonight – high scoring game, fast paced environment – all the same would apply to his back-court mate in Nicolas Batum. The Magic rank 30th in DvP and 29th in Def-Eff and after playing 32+ minutes in back to back games, I think we can confidently fire back up Batum in this spot with his depressed price point.
The game log watchers may skip over Batum due to his spotty production but we are finally seeing the minutes and usage tick up for the Hornets guard as he played a season high in minutes and put up 14 shot attempts, the second most of any game this year in his last outing.
If you are looking for a pivot play in the same price range, JJ Redick ($5,700) is coming off back to back 32 FanDuel point outings and will take on a Suns team ranked 28th in DvP against SG’s and allows you to build a stack around the high scoring Sixers/Suns game!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks:
Jonathan Simmons ($5,600) and Courtney Lee ($5,500): The more I went through roster builds breaking down this slate the more I liked the balanced roster approach as the $5-$6k price point is loaded with options that have match-ups that only further boost their profit potential tonight!
As we have mentioned the Hornets/Magic game is one of the highest projected scoring spots on this slate and looking at the defensive charts, the best place to attack Charlotte is on the wings as they rank 22/23 against opposing SG’s and SF’s from a DvP perspective this season. Simmons is locked into a starting role and massive minutes for the Magic as he has played 37 and 38 minutes the last two games while putting up 14 and 18 shot attempts in those contests! In those contests, Simmons has averaged 29 FD points which would exceed 5x value at this price and give us a player with a solid floor to build around in a match-up where we could see him approach his ceiling game!
Lee on the other hand is stepping into an unfamiliar role on the Knicks as an offensive focal point with Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. both off the floor tonight. Lee steps into tonight’s game with 33 and 37 FanDuel points per game over his last two outings which would hit 6x value in both instances and in fact, Lee has hit 33 or more FanDuel points in four of his last six outings so this trend is something we should capitalize on while the price is reasonable.
Lee has always been known as a complimentary scorer, but we are seeing in this recent trend how his defensive stats are pushing him into GPP value as he has racked up 2 or more steals in four of his last seven outings and when combined with his usage/volume on the offensive end, it gives him the ability to simply crush at this price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks:
Ben Simmons ($10,500): My man let me down on Saturday but I am willing to forgive and forget as good DFS players do and go right back to the well tonight because Simmons gets the best match-up a fantasy player could ask for when the Sixers take on the Suns! The Sixers have the highest team total on the board at 118, 10 points higher than their season average and see the largest pace boost of any team on the slate. This looks like the perfect spot for a monster Simmons outing and I am hoping his dud over the weekend keeps people from targeting him as with players like Giannis, LeBron and Boogie (without AD) on the slate, Simmons may be the forgotten stud to pay up for! I am all-in on this spot as there is simply nobody to match-up with Simmons on the Phoenix side and correlating him with Booker on the Suns side could result in a winning tournament strategy!
Ersan Illyasova ($5,600): With all this talk about Sixers/Suns and Hornets/Magic we have yet to mention the Hawks and Nets, one of the fastest paced games on the slate between two teams that like to push the ball and play defense, sometimes. This game just happened over the weekend and we saw Ersan enter the starting line-up for Atlanta with injuries to the Hawks front-court and although he struggled with his shot, going 3-11, this is a spot I think we jump right back on tonight! The Nets rank 25th in DvP and 28th in Def-Eff versus opposing PF’s and with Dwayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala and John Collins all OUT, Ersan will continue to be a focal point of this Hawks offense in an elite game environment tonight!
Enes Kanter ($6,600): What if I told you that you could roster a center tonight that has hit 6x value in three of his last four games, will take on a team in Indiana ranked 30th in DvP and 28th in Def-Eff versus the center position and will get a 6% usage boost with the team’s two best offensive players off the court? Would that interest you?I cannot believe I am saying this but Enes Kanter is a lock play for me in all formats tonight for every reason I listed out above, making him another mid-range play with significant GPP upside tonight and can be used in all formats/roster builds!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Kemba Walker ($7,800)
PG: Darren Collison ($5,900)
SG: Devin Booker ($7,000)
SG: Nicolas Batum ($5,500)
SF: Jonathan Simmons ($5,600)
SF: Courtney Lee ($5,500)
PF: Ben Simmons ($10,500)
PF: Ersan Ilyasova ($5,600)
C: Enes Kanter ($6,600)
Slate Overview: Looking over this slate, I went into my roster build prioritizing Ben Simmons as my one stud to build around and locked in guys like Enes Kanter, Kemba Walker and Devin Booker as my “second tier” plays I wanted as my core. This left me building the remaining roster in the $5k-$6k range and I believe there are some great plays with ample profit potential that makes his relatively balanced build one that I really like early on in the day! Good luck tonight all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!