Rangers Agree to Deal with Mike Minor: Fantasy Fallout

The Rangers signed top reliever Mike Minor on Monday. With news that he may join the rotation, what can we expect from him for fantasy in 2018?

The Texas Rangers have had a busy week to start the winter. First, they signed Doug Fister which I wrote about here. They are still in the running to sign Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani. It was announced on Monday that the Rangers agreed to terms with Mike Minor.

Minor spent five years with the Atlanta Braves as a starting pitcher, averaging a 4.10 ERA, 1.266 WHIP and 8-7 record. He then missed 2015 with shoulder problems and subsequent surgery and was unable to recover in time to join the Royals in 2016 but shined for them in his age-29 season.

In 77.2 innings, he posted a 2.55 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9. At the end of the season, he finished 32nd among all qualified relievers on the Player Rater. While he went undrafted, owners were looking for all the bullpen help they can get. He was owned in close to 33 percent of leagues at one point.

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Looking at the Rangers bullpen, they could use Minor as their go-to reliever. Roster Resource lists Alex Claudio as their closer with Jake Diekman and Keone Kela as the set-up man. With his starter experience, he could be a long reliever like Chris Devenski or Chad Green. But the Rangers seem to have another plan in mind.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweeted that the Rangers plan to have Minor in their rotation if and when he signs. That changes things a bit. The Rangers are clearly in need of starting rotation help as well.

Cole Hamels will lead the rotation with Martin Perez, the recently signed Doug Fister, Minor and Matt Bush rounding out the rotation. If the Rangers somehow land Ohtani, I think Bush goes back to the bullpen as the team’s closer and Minor moves down to the No. 5 spot. That will hurt his value some. He may lose two to three starts as a result.

It will have been four seasons since Minor took the mound in the first inning. In his time with the Braves, he finished between a 19 and 23 percent strikeout rate and six to eight percent walk rate. Those numbers put him inside the top-50 starters from last season. Can he post similar numbers all this time later? The Rangers are hoping.

While he did get a first-pitch strike over 60 percent of the time, Minor did not induce a lot of swings and misses. He had a career-high 11.3 swinging strike rate and 48.6 swing rate in his first season as a starter. Minor relied heavily on his ground ball rate and low HR/FB rate to get batters out.

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I think Minor could benefit as a starter with the Rangers. As for fantasy, unless you’re in deep mixed or AL-only leagues, I wouldn’t look to draft him. He may be better off as a streaming option if the matchup is right. Though, if he starts the season strong, I wouldn’t be opposed to adding him off the waiver wire.

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