Nylon Calculus: How long will the Cleveland Cavaliers’ win streak continue?
The Cleveland Cavaliers extended their win streak to 12 games with a blowout victory over the Chicago Bulls on Monday night. Per Basketball-Reference.com, their 12-game win streak is tied for the second-longest in Cavaliers history. The franchise record is 13 straight wins, which the team managed twice during LeBron’s first tenure.
Over the last 12 wins, the Cavaliers have upped their level of play dramatically. Using my player value metric, Player Impact Plus-Minus, as the measuring stick, the average Cavalier has been 2.4 points per 100 possessions better over the current win streak than in the first twelve games of the season.
As this graphic illustrates, the improvement in the team so far has come from a dramatic increase in efficiency across the board. The Cavaliers have gone from playing like a 26.2 win team over their first 12 games to a 59.5 win team during their win streak.
Evaluating the streak
To evaluate the streak and project forward, I am using my in-season game projection model. The model is trained off historical game data, and accounts for rest, travel, team strength, and matchup. Since I began using the model to predict outcomes, I have been able to correctly identify the winner in about 71 percent of games.
My model gives the Cleveland Cavaliers a very good chance at tying the franchise record for consecutive wins against the Sacramento Kings. However, the Cavaliers have a mixed schedule coming up. Including the Kings game, my model has the Cavaliers as the favorite in only 6 of their next 10 games. The Cavaliers have about 1 in 5 odds of matching the Celtics’ win streak of 16 games.
Unlike the Celtics’ win streak, the Cavaliers have a much tougher schedule to fight through if they hope to extend the streak into the high teens and beyond. The return of Derrick Rose and how the team integrates him back into the rotation could put the streak at risk. Rose has rated well below replacement so far this year per my Player Impact Plus-Minus metric. On top of that, the team has been 21.2 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench.
Next: Nylon Calculus -- The 2017-18 NBA season at the quarter mark
Regardless of how the team uses Rose, this win streak serves as a reminder of how good a LeBron James led team can be when they turn it on. A true test will come against a Pacers team on the road and a 76ers team looking for revenge with the Cleveland Cavaliers on a back-to-back.