Welcome to Fixtures, Flyers and Fades! We are here to help you cash in FanDuel EPL DFS with all the best tips, picks and analysis for December 9 2017 Premier League slate.
What a week! Last weekend was a healthy profit and the midweek Champions League slates were fantastic for me. A Lukaku/Pogba goal/assist took all my lines into the green on Tuesday. My decision to fade Sevilla and go all in on Liverpool killed it on Wednesday. Sevilla played out a 1-1 draw with Maribor while Liverpool ran out 7-0 winners against Spartak Moscow.
Now that the UCL group stages are over we are in for a bumper few weeks of Premier League action as we head into the holidays. That kicks off this weekend with an interesting six game slate on FanDuel on Saturday.
Only one of the ‘big six’ are in action so your lineups will feature some unfamiliar names. This is a fantastic opportunity to take advantage of punters limited EPL knowledge. Inevitably they will gravitate to teams and players they know. There will also be a lot of ‘game logs’ picks. A little bravery this weekend could see you do very well in GPP play.
I break down this column into three categories: Fixtures are those you need to build your lineups around. Flyers are the gambles and the punts; cheaper or lesser known players in great positions for a break out game. Fades are those you need to avoid; I think who you choose to fade in soccer DFS is more important than in any other DFS sport.
I’ll be on Twitter @davidgatesports to chat through lineups from 9:00am ET. Happy to give advice with any surprises on the team sheets. There is not a ton of bargain basement value projected so if some appears on the team sheets you are going to need to know about it.
FanDuel EPL: Fixtures
Open up the slate and you will see Tottenham’s attacking trio at the top. Harry Kane (13500), Dele Alli (11000) and Christian Eriksen (10500) are the only players that hit the 5 figure price point. They are in the ONLY game on the slate that is projected to have over 2.5 goals. The matchup is good and fading them is not an option this week.
Saying all that I don’t love them. They are expensive and will be as chalky as chalk can be. Alli and Eriksen have nit been playing well and Spurs are in a slump. They are also playing at home where they have only scored nine goals this season. Man City have scored 28 at home. I will be using them but only in 50% of my lineups.
I am far more excited about the Burnley v Watford game. Richarlison (9500) is a top play for me this week. His last two weeks have been disappointing but that was against Man Utd and Spurs. Burnley give up more shots than any other team in the EPL. Pairing him with Abdoulaye Doucouré (9500) is a solid play.
I have two other fixtures this week. Johann Berg Gudmundsson (6000) is now a fixture in the Burnley side and has been very consistent in recent weeks. His price is probably 1.5-2k cheaper than it should be. My goalkeeper this week is Mat Ryan (5000) who had only conceded 9 goals for the season before he ran into the Liverpool goal machine last week. Huddersfield have only scored 5 goals in their last 13 Premier League games. Book him in.
FanDuel EPL: Flyers
Burnley are the team I am going to use as value in my Tottenham stacks. Chris Wood (8500) should start again for the Clarets and I love him this week. Watford have conceded the most goals from headers (7) in the EPL. The big striker should get his chances on Saturday.
Two other player than can help you get the Spurs trio in your lineups are Scott Arfield (4500) who should start for the injured Robbie Brady. Phil Bardsley (5500) will likely be at right back again and has been very good in DFS in his two starts.
To continue exposure to that game I will be using the Watford full backs Kiko Femenia (6000) and Marvin Zeegelaar (5000). The way Watford use their full backs gives them some nice upside on a slate where goals will be hard to come by.
The other team I want a piece of is Crystal Palace. That means Christian Benteke (8500) and Wilfred Zaha (9500). They both have a string of underwhelming game logs but some of that is due to playing two away games in a row. The side has an average of 9.9 shots a game on the road but that rises to 14.9 at home.
I will be watching the Tottenham sheet for who they play in defense. With Toby Alderweireld injured and Davinson Sanchez they could give a start to summer signing Juan Foyth (4000). He started in the Champions League on Wednesday and did a good job.
FanDuel EPL: Fades
Every casual EPL DFS player will be using Jamie Vardy (9500) and Riyad Mahrez (9500) on Saturday. They are the only other big ‘names’ outside of the Spurs trio. I expect their ownership to be +30% as they represent better value than Kane/Eriksen/Alli. I just don’t think they have the upside in this game for that kind of ownership. Playing them in cash in not a terrible idea but I think fading in the GPP has more pros than cons this week.
There are two games where I will be fading every outfield player. West Brom v Swansea is all kinds of ugly. The game is projected by bookies as 1/2 odds to be under 2.5 goals. You probably weren’t looking at any West Brom forwards but I would avoid Tammy Abraham (9000) whose price has actually gone up despite not scoring in the last six weeks.
The Huddersfield v Brighton & Hove Albion game is actually expected to worse. Again, I think people will gravitate to Pascal Gross (8500) and Aaron Mooy (8500) as they have been consistent DFS performers. They may get some good auxiliary stats but they have virtually no goal/assist upside.
One player I often use that I am giving a big fat fade to is Xherdan Shaqiri (8000). After watching hi coast through the game at Liverpool a few weeks ago it seems clear his heart is not in games that they will lose.
FanDuel EPL: Lineups
Note: these are sample lineups and are not optimized. The only guarantee I can give you is that I will playing them too. I will also have some lines that are not here. Best thing is to take some of these picks and build your own lineup – especially in GPP – as lineup sharing only reduces the amount you can win.
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Lineup 1: Tottenham & Burnley stack
FWD: Kane – Tottenham Hotspur
FWD: Wood – Burnley
MID: Ericksen – Tottenham Hotspur
MlD: Arfield – Burnley
MID: Gudmundsson – Burnley
DEF: Bardsley – Burnley
DEF: Kabasele – Watford
GK: Ryan – Brighton
Lineup 2: Watford & Crystal Palace stack
FWD: Richarlison – Watford
FWD: Benteke – Crystal Palace
MID: Zaha – Crystal Palace
MlD: Doucoure- WAtford
MID: Loftus-Cheek – Crystal Palace
DEF: Femenia – Watford
DEF: Zeegelaar – Watford
GK: Ryan – Brighton
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