Welcome to the Friday edition of FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s winning tournament line-ups for the four game slate managed to put up scores of 399 FanDuel points as a monster night from Joel Embiid (64.4) combined with some big time nights from under-owned guys like Lonzo Ball (52.6) and Caris LeVert (54) set up winning big dollar take downs!
Over the first 50 NBA regular season slates it has taken 381.7 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Over the first 50 NBA regular season slates it has taken 381.7 FanDuel points on average to take down a GPP which means on a $60,000 salary cap, we need 6.4x per player to take down a big time tournament in FanDuel NBA!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and give you a sample line-up as an example of what our core roster build could look like using the analysis we lay out in the coming pages!
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks:
Welcome to a solid eight game Friday FanDuel NBA slate where we have another night of big time injuries that should open up some early value and must have spots to build around!
Jamal Murray ($6,000): The Nuggets and Magic take the court tonight in a high scoring, fast paced game littered with injury news that opens up usage/value across the board. This game has a 218 total and is projected to be the second fastest paced game on the slate so it is a spot I intend to have heavy exposure to in GPP’s considering the price point for many of these players!
Jamal Murray got the Mike Malone treatment last game, only playing 22 minutes, continuing the volatile nature of rostering him this season which we are all too familiar with here at Picks and Pivots! The match-up tonight is simply too good to pass up as the Nuggets see the second largest pace boost of any team on the slate and will take on a Orlando team ranked 29th in DvP and 27th in Def-Eff this season against opposing PG’s.
In fact over the last two weeks, opposing point guards have put up 40 or more FanDuel points in six of their eight meetings and 50 or more in four of those eight games against Orlando! This is a dream spot for Murray and the price is simply too cheap relative to his upside in a fast paced game environment like this.
On the other side of this game, Elfrid Payton ($8,100) is a great play on paper but the inflated price point and absence of Evan Fournier may actually make him a sneaky fade as I expect he will be a popular target today! This season, Elf has actually seen a 5% usage decrease with Fournier off the court (in 50 minutes of sample size) and that number jumps to 9% when you also take Terrence Ross off the court! If you stretch this over the last two seasons, the numbers normalize a bit more with the larger sample size but Payton still only sees a 1% usage bump in that scenario with a FP/M decrease so the absence of Fournier in this spot may not give him the bump most would expect at this inflated price point!
Darren Collison ($6,000): My favorite game of the night for stacking is Cleveland/Indiana as we get two teams with tight rotations, obvious usage targets and the added benefit of two teams that rank in the bottom half in the league in defensive efficiency!
Collison has always been a relatively steady producer but this year we are seeing way more volatility from him which make him an intriguing tournament play as his ceiling his higher than most would likely realize. In fact when these two teams met earlier this season, Collison had one of his best games of the season with 45 FanDuel points against the Cavaliers.
Interestingly enough, Myles Turner sat out that first meeting with Cleveland and is listed as questionable for tonight so we could see a similar game script here tonight but what adds even more intrigue to me is that the Pacers back-up point guard, Cory Joseph, is also listed as questionable which means that Collison could get all the run he can handle against a Cleveland defense ranked 20th in DvP and Def-Eff against the position!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks:
Nicolas Batum ($6,400): Shooting guard is surprisingly solid in the mid-range today so I think you can go a variety of different routes depending on if you want to build off a stack at your core or move to some one-off’s. One player that stands out to me as still too cheap is Nicolas Batum who is back to playing 35 minutes a night as he has in his last three games and is putting up double-digit shot attempts while contributing rebounds/steals that add to his fantasy upside. The match-up tonight with the Bulls is a good one as they rank 20th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff so Batum makes for a great mid-range play on this slate that I expect will be over-looked due to the plethora of players around him in the same price range.
Gary Harris ($6,900) and Will Barton ($7,200) are two players I would look to build around tonight if you want additional exposure to this Denver/Orlando game as they are both locked into 30+ minutes a night and will take on a Magic team ranked 29th and 24th in Def-Eff guarding the SG/SF spots. It will be interesting to see if the Nuggets choose to go small again tonight with Barton starting at SF but regardless of his starting status, this is a Denver team right now that is leaning on both these guards to carry the load offensively and with the pace increased expected, I think you can stack both of these players together for tournaments!
Arron Afflalo ($3,500): With the injury to Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross being sidelined, the Magic are going to be super thing on the wings and although we have seen price hikes for most of the Magic, Afflalo has stayed at minimum price which could make him an elite value assuming he gets the start at the SG position! With Fournier playing 30+ minutes a night and now on the bench due to injury, Afflalo should see a major spike in minutes with no other real guard/wing depth behind him and that opportunity is simply too good to pass on tonight in one of the highest scoring game environments on the slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Plays:
Small Forward is an interesting position on this slate as we once again have to decide between Giannis, LeBron and Kevin Durant without Stephen Curry on the court. On the last slate, Durant was overwhelming chalk (rightfully so) at near 50% ownership in GPP’s while Giannis/Lebron were roughly 15% owned on the same slate. On that slate dropping down to Durant gave you a $2k price savings but tonight the price on KD has risen to $11k making this a much harder decision.
My hope is that people just blindly follow the Durant without Steph narrative after he dropped 66 last game which means we could get LeBron/Giannis at a fraction of the ownership again tonight. Do not get me wrong, the match-up for Kevin Durant ($11,100) is exceptional as he will take on a Pistons team ranked 30th in DvP and 28th in Def-Eff but the big difference for me when deciding which stud SF to use is that I prefer to use the Pacers instead of the Pistons as a correlating game stack when using LeBron James ($12,000).
For every reason we love Durant without Curry on the floor (massive usage, FP/M etc), we can say the same things for King James who has a 32% usage rate while putting up 1.6 FP/M over the last two weeks. James crushed in this match-up earlier this season against Indiana when he put up 57.7 FanDuel points and has every bit the massive ceiling that KD has – if I am getting him at an ownership discount in a batter game stack, then simply hit the lock button and move on!
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,800) As I mentioned, one of the reasons I am leaning LeBron tonight is that I love the Pacers correlation as the price points (other than Victor Oladipo) are insanely reasonable and we know that Indiana plays a super tight rotation where the starters log major minutes and soak up all the usage.
If you look back at the first meeting between these two teams (when Turner was out), the starting five all played 30+ minutes and only Cory Joseph (questionable tonight) logged 20+ minutes off the bench. In that game Bojan racked up 29.9 FD points which would exceed 6.2x value at this price point and the Pacers SF steps into this game with 26+ FD points in each of his last two games. Bojan is locked into double-digit shot attempts every night with 30+ minute security in the highest projected scoring game of the night which makes him an ideal pairing with King James at the same position!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Plays:
DeMarcus Cousins ($12,000): I do not care what the price is for Boogie tonight – he is the lock lock lockity lock of the flipping night and I do not care if Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing and Wilt Chamberlain were available on this slate for minimum price, I would still lock in Cousins.
First things first, Anthony Davis remains questionable for tonight which means Boogie will carry a 40% usage rate and 1.6 FP/M into this meeting after his 78.4 FD point performance last game. Please Brow, sit out again tonight – rest up, feel better – stay away.
Why do I want this so badly? Let’s see – this match-up just happens to be against the Sacramento Kings – the ultimate revenge narrative for our good friend Boogie! Since “leaving” Sacramento, Cousins has taken on his previous team twice and put up 65.6 and 79.6 FD points in those meetings!
Thew 79.6 FD point outing is important to note as that happened earlier this season, when he logged 41 points and 23 rebounds and that was without AD on the court so if Davis misses again you are legit fading an 80 point Boogie game. Don’t do it.
Domanatas Sabonis ($4,800): If Myles Turner misses tonight’s game, you simply hit the lock button on Sabonis at under $5k as the starting center for Indiana. In this same match-up earlier this season, Sabonis racked up 15 points, 12 rebounds and 38 FD points against the Cavs which would be nearly 8x value at this price point. This is a free square people – take it and move on!
Marvin Williams ($4,400): This is the second straight slate I have written up Marvin Williams – life is weird sometimes. Tonight the spot is even better than it was on Wednesday as we now have a Hornets team that will be without Cody Zeller AND Frank Kaminsky tonight meaning Marvin will get ALL the minutes he can handle at PF against a Bulls team ranked 28th in Def-Eff versus opposing PF’s. When given the minutes, Marvin has crushed in this match-up, putting up 45 FD points in 38 minutes of action last season and at only $4.4k he gives you the salary flexibility to lock in BOTH Boogie and LeBron tonight while not sacrificing upside!
FanDuel NBA – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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PG: Jamal Murray ($6,000)
PG: Darren Collison ($6,000)
SG: Nicolas Batum ($6,400)
SG: Arron Afflalo ($3,500)
SF: LeBron James ($12,000)
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,800)
PF: Domanatas Sabonis ($4,800)
PF: Marvin Williams ($4,400)
C: DeMarcus Cousins ($12,000)
Slate Overview: BOOGIE REVENGE! That is my slate overview. Ok fine – I can elaborate – you start your roster with Boogie then work in your favorite game stack (could be Denver/Orlando) but I prefer the Indiana/Cavs stack as I can pair the Pacers value with LeBron relatively easily. Good luck tonight and dear Anthony Davis – take the night off fella!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!