NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 14 Top Picks and Plays

CINCINNATI, OH – DECEMBER 04: Giovani Bernard NFL DFS

NFL DFS Breakdown: Week 14 Top Picks and Plays:

Top Projected Team Totals (as of 12/8): New England – 29, Los Angeles (Chargers) – 26.25, Kansas City – 26.25, Los Angeles (Rams) – 25, Pittsburgh – 24.25, Houston – 24

Underpriced Value Plays:

Giovani Bernard – CIN (RB) – DK

It was announced today (Friday), that running back, Joe Mixon, has been ruled out after suffering a concussion on Monday night. With Jeremy Hill on the IR, Giovani Bernard will act as the starting running back. Gio will fall into a positive matchup and potentially a favorable game script, as Cincinnati is a 6.5 point favorite. Gio will be highly owned, but will provide safety through his workload and pass game usage. It’s also important to note that three of the Bears’ top defensive players, Adrian Amos, Pernell McPhee, and Eddie Goldman, are doubtful for Sunday.

Josh Gordon – CLE (WR) – FD

Speaking of chalk, Josh Gordon is expected to be mega chalk, as he’ll draw an advantageous matchup against the Green Bay secondary. Gordon was tasked with a difficult matchup last week in his return, but most importantly, he was targeted 11 times. It was a quite shocking that he was able to play as much as he did, but he should be set for a big game this week as he faces a Packers defense that has allowed 5.8 PPR points above opponent average to wide receivers (@beerswater).

NFL DFS Exploitable Matchups:

BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 27: Running Back Lamar Miller

Lamar Miller – HOU (RB)

While Lamar Miller has been fairly inefficient all season, his workload will be fairly secure, as running backs, Alfred Blue and D’onta Foreman, will be absent on Sunday. Houston will play host to the San Francisco 49’ers this week, who rank 20th in run DVOA and 30th in total DVOA (FootballOutsiders). Houston has seen the line move in their direction, and Lamar Miller could benefit from a positive game script, at home.

Travis Kelce – OAK (TE)

In what could turn into a shootout, Travis Kelce figures to be in for a big day. Not only is Kelce a focal point in the offense, but he’ll have a favorable matchup against Oakland who rank 27th in DVOA against tight ends. This total was hit by a group earlier in the week, causing it to rise to the 49 that it now sits at. Both offenses are set up for success this week, so Kelce may benefit from a back and forth game.

NFL DFS – Changes in Workload:

Stephen Anderson – HOU (TE/WR)

Stephen Anderson will be another hot commodity this week, as the injury bug that plagued the defense, has now hit the offense. Both C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Bruce Ellington were placed on IR, and Braxton Miller is questionable with a concussion. It looks like Houston will get Will Fuller back, but there should still be plenty of work for Anderson, who saw a season high, 12 targets last week. Anderson has the ability to split out wide and play wide receiver, as well as on the line as a tight end. This versatility will be needed given Houston’s injuries.

NFL DFS – Hot Takes:

Houston and San Francisco combine for over 50 points

This total looks appetizing to me and apparently to others as well. The total opened at 43, and now sits around 45. In addition, Houston has also seen some backing, with the line moving from -1 to now around -2.5, or even -3 in some shops.

More from FanSided

As I’ve touched on, Houston should be able to move the ball against a 49er defense that ranks 30th in total DVOA. With the injuries to the Houston offense, fantasy production should be condensed and thus a bit more appealing for DFS. This offense also looks to get Will Fuller back, who has been out with a rib injury. All signs point to Fuller playing this week and it will be needed. Not only does Fuller have the big play potential needed when looking for a game to go over, but he also draws the attention of the defense, thus helping free up some coverage on Hopkins. Fuller’s speed has to be account for by safeties and Hopkins could benefit.

On the other side of the ball, Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center for the 49’ers and should provide the offensive push back to help this game get over the total. While they didn’t put up a touchdown last week, Garoppolo had some impressive drives, in a tough environment. Houston has allowed 20 points, or more, in each of their last six games. The injuries to Watt and Mercelius are apparent, and a revitalized 49er offense could serve to benefit.

Maybe the most important factor is the pace to which this game should be played.

Per @fboutsiders, SF/HOU is the only game on the main slate with two teams that rank in the top 10 in neutral pace. That game has seen the O/U increase by 1.5 points, the biggest jump of the week so far.
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) December 7, 2017

Each offense should get plenty of opportunities, and if they’re efficient, we could see a lot of points scored.

Next: Week 14 NFL GPP Plays

Best of luck in your NFL DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all your fantasy news and DFS analysis!