We’re back with another installment of Nylon Notebook, looking at a few different statistical storylines from around the NBA. All statistics are current through Dec. 6.
Tyreke Evans has found a 3-point shot
It’s been a disappointing starts to the season for the Memphis Grizzlies but the resurgence of Tyreke Evans has been one of the few bright spots. He struggled to find a fit in three-and-a-half seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans and but earned himself an opportunity in Memphis with a dozen or so reasonably strong games with the Kings at the end of last season.
Evans has quietly been terrific on offense for Memphis, averaging 21.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists per 36 minutes, on 47.5 percent from the field and 43.0 percent from behind the 3-point line. The outside shooting is a career-best mark by a wide margin and his accuracy off the dribble has been driving it. More than half of his 3-point attempts have been pull-ups and he’s leading the league in accuracy among players with at least 50 attempts.
This may seem like an absurd aberration for a player who was a career 29.5 percent 3-point shooter coming into this season. However, Evans has been trending upwards over the latter part of his career. Research has shown it takes about 750 attempts to measure a player’s true 3-point percentage, or to be certain that a player’s shooting has truly improved. Over his last 310 attempts (his last season-and-a-half in New Orleans, the handful of games in Sacramento last year, and the beginning of this season in Memphis), Evans is shooting 39.0 percent on 3s. He would have to make 22.5 percent of his next 440 attempts for this 750-shot sample to fall back to his previous career average.
Evans may not be quite as good a 3-point shooter as he’s shown so far so this season but he’s clearly made some significant improvements over the beginning of his career. Evans is a free agent this summer and, at 28, he’s unlikely to be of much use to Memphis moving forward unless their fortunes change dramatically. He could be a very appealing trade target later this winter.
What’s different for Al Horford on the glass?
Al Horford has been absolutely phenomenal for the Celtics on defense this season, helping hold together what has been the league’s best defense for most of the season. Not everything he’s doing shows up in his individual statistics but his improvement on the glass is noteworthy. Through 24 games, Horford’s defensive rebound percentage was 22.4 percent, the highest it’s been since 2012-13.
The difference for Horford has been mostly in conversion — he’s getting roughly the same number of rebound chances per 36 minutes, meaning the difference may not have much to do with macro positioning. But his rate of converting rebound chances into actual rebounds is much higher this season.
We’re nearing the point in the season where early trends begin to stabilize and Horford is still in the 95th percentile in conversion rate among players with at least 5.0 rebounds chances per game this season. It’s looking more and more like a real change in his approach on the defensive glass and it’s a huge variable for Boston’s ability to stay elite at that end of the floor.
Utah slowing things down
One of the most fun developments over the past few weeks has been the resurgence of the Utah Jazz offense. After struggling out of the gate, and staring down the void of the NBA Draft lottery when Rudy Gobert went down with injury, they pulled together and found a movement heavy solution to create good shots in his absence. Behind some perhaps unsustainably hot shooting they put together a multi-week stretch of very elite offense and have kept themselves afloat in the Western Conference playoff race.
Interestingly, they found offensive efficiency not by pushing the pace and exploiting scattered defenses, but by slowing things down and running defenses ragged in the halfcourt. The data below from Inpredictable shows how their tempo changed.
Utah’s stretch of hot offense was driven by a surge in efficiency in halfcourt setttings — after defensive rebounds and made shots by the opponent. In both cases their average possession length increased, by more than a full second in cases after they rebounded an opponent’s miss.
Next: Nylon Calculus -- The 2017-18 NBA season at the quarter mark
Their 19.1 average possession length after opponent makes since Gobert returned is the fifth-longest in the NBA and means they’re shooting, on average, with about five seconds left on the shot clock. Their efficiency has dropped precipitously in those instances. It’s only been three games but bringing that number back up is going to be key to their continued success.