To say Kris Dunn’s rookie season was disappointing would be an understatement. Not only did he finish with more shots than points for the season, there were times when he just looked flat-out overmatched on the court. When you compound this with the fact that Dunn was already 23 by the season’s end, his prospects looked even worse. By the end of his first season, Dunn looked like one of the biggest busts in a draft that was pretty miserable as a whole. When the Chicago Bulls received him in the Jimmy Butler trade, there was some small hope that he’d live up to the potential he showed at Providence but really, he couldn’t help but feel like a throw-in.
Fast forward to the first third of the 2017-18 NBA season, and suddenly the prognosis on Dunn is looking a lot better. He looks far more confident on the court than last season, and he’s established himself as the clear first option at point guard for the Bulls. Along with the surprising rookie season of Lauri Markkanen, he’s given Bulls fans considerable cause for optimism after the misery that ensued this summer after the Butler trade.
Read more: In search of the perfect stat line.
Now, to be clear, none of this is to say that Dunn is suddenly an All-Star. If you look at his stats for the entirety of the season, it would probably seem like he has improved only a little bit.
Efficiency is still a problem, as he’s averaging 12.8 points on 12.3 shots a game. Likewise, he could stand to do a lot better on free throws. Dunn only gets to the line 1.8 times per game and is shooting just 63.2 percent on those shots. Finally, his offensive box plus-minus is a -1.9. Dunn is getting better, but he hasn’t fixed every aspect of his game, to say the least.
So, why is there still such cause for celebration with Dunn’s game? Well, part of it is because he’s developed the most valuable skill in today’s NBA: a 3-point shot. After shooting just 28.8 percent on 3s as a rookie, Dunn has climbed up to 41.7 this year, despite an increase in attempts per 36 minutes from 2.0 last season to 2.9 now.
More importantly, though, some of Dunn’s poor numbers seem more reflective of his poor start to this season rather than where he is right now. Early in the year, Dunn looked better but still struggled with consistency, as shown in efforts like the 1-for-11 performance from the field against the Thunder. There was also a more recent game against the Heat, where he failed to hit a shot from the field, and scored just two points for the game. There were nights when Dunn would have it going, but other nights when he’d looked like the same lost rookie he was in Minnesota.
That’s why the events of the of the last seven games are such a big deal for anyone following Dunn’s career. In those games, Dunn has scored at least 15 points in all but one and put in a career-high 24 in a loss to the Phoenix Suns. Dunn is doing all of this while also showing an incredible uptick in passing skills. Over the aforementioned seven-game stretch, Dunn has tallied eight assists or more in four games and has never dipped below five.
He’s also become one of the most adept ball-hawks in the league, as he’s recorded at least three steals in five of his last eight games, and for the season, he’s third in the league in steals per game at 2.0, and first in steal percentage at 3.5 percent. Considering Dunn’s calling was always his defense, this is a great sign.
Does this mean Dunn will become an elite point guard? It’s too early to say. We don’t know if his current hot streak will prove sustainable, or if he’ll ever be able to turn into a league-average free-throw shooter. That being said, Dunn’s considerable improvement is the most pleasant NBA surprise that hardly anyone is talking about.
Next: Dunn isn't the only young guard showing growth in the central division.
After his rookie season, Dunn looked like an all-time disaster of a lottery pick. Now, he looks like a competent NBA point guard with the potential to evolve into something far greater. For the Bulls fans, who were miserable on draft night, this is as positive a development as they could have hoped for.