Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Wednesday’s DFS slate was filled with some big time performances from some of the games biggest stars as players like Chris Paul and Giannis Antetokounmpo exceed the 60 FD point mark while elite value plays like Mario Hezonja dropped 41 FD points at near minimum price for a short-handed Magic squad!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Top Plays and Slate Strategy:
Welcome back everyone – appreciate all the feedback on the new format as we look to expand past FanDuel and offer up DFS advice across a variety of platforms including Fantasy Draft (FD) and PlayLine. For those of you looking to try a new site, I have really enjoyed playing on Fantasy Draft over the last few days and feel free to join via my referral link for 10% rake back!
Looking over this five game slate there is a clear strategy that jumps out to me tonight across all platforms as this is setting up to me a perfect Stars and Scrubs kind of night!
It all starts with LeBron James ($20.3k on Fantasy Draft and $12.6k on FanDuel) who gets dropped into an elite game environment tonight where Cleveland has the highest projected team total and sees the largest pace boost of any team on the slate in the fastest game of the night against the Lakers. The spot simply could not set up better for LeBron as the pace of this game elevates the ceiling he has and with 60+ FD points in four straight games he is giving you a minimum 3x value on a site like Fantasy Draft where we need roughly 3.5x per player to win a GPP.
Kristaps Porzingis ($18,500 on FD and $10,200 on FanDuel) may not be the highest priced player on the slate but one could argue he may be the best point per dollar stud to roster after dropping over 66 fantasy points against the Lakers his last time out which would give you target 3.5x value on FD and 6.5x value on FanDuel.
As great as LeBron’s match-up is, KP’s is every bit as good as the Knicks see the second highest pace increase on the slate versus the Brooklyn Nets. These two teams met earlier this year and Porzingis put up 30 points, 9 rebounds and over 50 fantasy points and frankly the Nets have nobody that can possibly match-up with him.
Kevin Durant ($21,900 on FD and $11,900 on FanDuel) may not have the sexiest match-up on the board as the Warriors take on a slow-paced Mavericks team but this play is less about the match-up and has everything to do with the Warriors situation. We all know Stephen Curry remains out but we also have news that tonight Draymond Green is doubtful which means that this is the all KD show tonight for Golden State.
With both of those guys off the court this season, Durant not shockingly leads the team in usage at 34% while putting up 1.5 FP/M. Durant has put up no fewer that 21 shots in any of his last four games, flashing one of the steadiest cash game floors with clear 70+ point fantasy upside as a result of the injuries to the other Warriors stars.
On a site like FanDuel, rostering all three of these guys will leave you only $4.2k per player while on Fantasy Draft you are left with $7.8k per player which in both cases may seem like you are going to be scraping for GPP darts but we already have some elite value plays we can utilize to make this roster build work.
On PlayLine tonight – all three of these studs are part of the $1M Perfect Line-up contest and my recommendation would be to project them aggressively, especially with LeBron and Porzingis who are in massive pace up spots so projecting them for 5-6 points above their season long scoring average is an ideal strategy. Haven’t tried PlayLine yet? Free games for real money are still going on – sign up now!
NBA DFS – Top Value Plays:
Let’s be honest, telling you to play the top three guys on the slate is not exactly earth shattering news and in order to make it work you are going to have to go bargain hunting to separate yourself from the pack on this slate!
The injuries to guys like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia and Nick Young not only vault the status of Kevin Durant as a must play but it opens up the necessary value to go full on Stars and Scrubs. Jordan Bell ($6,700 on FD and $4,300 on FanDuel) is the top value play on this slate as he will likely start again at Center again after racking up 11 points, 6 rebounds and 25 fantasy points which would exceed 3.7x on FD and 5.8x on FanDuel. This season with Curry/Draymond off the court, Bell is a fantasy point per minute player and will take on a Mavericks front-court that is ranked 21st in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff against opposing Centers this season. Just plug Bell in, eat the chalk and move on!
Omri Casspi ($7,100 on Fantasy Draft and $4,100 on FanDuel): Casspi will likely start at Power Forward again tonight in place of Draymond Green after logging 25 minutes and putting up 25+ fantasy points against Portland. Casspi is an elite play in a format like Fantasy Draft as you can slot him in to your Utility spot but the choice on a site like FanDuel becomes much tougher as his SF eligibility would require you to pivot off a LeBron/Durant stack. If you want to use him on FanDuel, then he is best utilized as a high/low play with either LeBron or Durant if you are looking for a more balanced roster construction. On Fantasy Draft however he is a key cog in my Stars/Scrubs line-up build.
Yogi Ferrell ($8,900 on FD and $4,700 on FanDuel): With the injury to Dennis Smith Jr., Ferrell becomes one of the best value plays on the board and playable in all formats as the starting PG for the Mavericks. In his last two games, Yogi has played 32 and 35 minutes while averaging nearly 28 fantasy points on a site like FD which would exceed 3.1x value at this price point.
In his last two games, Ferrell has put up 11 and 15 shot attempts while continuing to rack up assists/steals and I love the idea of pairing him with a guy like Kevin Durant to build some correlation in this Mavs/Warriors game.
Wes Matthews ($8,900 on Fantasy Draft) is a play I like much more on Fantasy Draft (although he is certainly playable at just over $5k on FanDuel). The Mavericks without Smith have become really easy to break down as the offense/volume is essentially boiled down to 3-4 key players with Matthews leading the charge with 15 or more shot attempts in three straight games.
Matthews has put up 28 or more FD points in three straight games (3.1x value) against tough defenses like the Spurs, Minnesota and Milwaukee so I am not worried about a match-up on paper against a Warriors defense that has been top 10 in defending the SG position. The Mavericks are going to need Wes to carry the offense tonight if they plan to keep pace with Dubs so stacking Yogi/Matthews with Durant and the Golden State value plays is a great core build tonight!
NBA DFS – Top Fades and Pivot Plays:
Point Guard tonight lacks any clear “must play” and although I expect people will look to rationalize using guys like Reggie Jackson, I think pivoting off him and utilizing someone like Ish Smith ($7,400 on Fantasy Draft and $3,900 on FanDuel) is a great GPP strategy and salary saver in a Stars and Scrubs line-up. Smith is locked into 20+ minutes and absolutely smashed in this spot versus Atlanta earlier this season when he put up 30 fantasy points in only 18 minutes of court time! The Hawks are ranked 26th in Def-Eff and are dead last in DRPM rating at the position so this is a great spot to exploit with a near minimum priced player who has put up 27 shot attempts in his last two games.
Lonzo Ball is a player I love to utilize in DFS due to his GPP winning upside and he was a core play for me on Tuesday and helped me take down ona GPP on Fantasy Draft! If there is one thing I have learned with a player like Lonzo is that you jump off when everyone else jumps on. Game log watchers will see the 40-50 point outings this past week and likely look to pair him with LeBron in game stacks but this a player who has legit 10-20 point floors so playing the strategic fade tonight and hoping this is a bad Lonzo night (with LeBron hopefully locking him down) that gives you an advantage over the field!
On Fantasy Draft I can avoid Center tonight but on FanDuel I need to decide how I want to approach this position as the best plays would require me to spend up and pivot off my LeBron/Durant/KP core. Brook Lopez ($4,300 on FanDuel) is my preferred option on this slate as he is one of the few bargain centers locked into consistent minutes and has 22+ fantasy points in four straight games. With the Cavs lacking a true center, Lopez could actually match-up well against a guy like Kevin Love who can play out on the perimeter and we saw Lopez routinely tasked with guarding KP on Tuesday when he would flash to the top of the key!
NBA DFS – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FanDuel Line-Up:
PG: Yogi Ferrell ($4,700)
PG: Ish Smith ($3,900)
SG: J.R. Smith ($4,300)
SG: Marco Belinello ($3,800)
SF: LeBron James ($12,600)
SF: Kevin Durant ($11,900)
PF: Kristaps Porzingis ($10,200)
PF: Jordan Bell ($4,300)
C: Brook Lopez ($4,300)
Fantasy Draft Line-Up:
Guard: Yogi Ferrell ($8,900)
Guard: Wes Mattnews ($8,900)
Guard: Ish Smith ($7,400)
Forward/Center: LeBron James ($20,300)
Forward/Center: Kevin Durant ($21,900)
Forward/Center: Kristaps Porzingis ($18,500)
Utility: Jordan Bell ($6,700)
Utility: Omri Casspi ($7,100)
Slate Overview: This slate is clearly setting up to a be a great Stars and Scrubs slate in my opinion as the value we have on Golden State and in the Dallas back-court gives us the ability to lock in three top end studs today in all formats! Keep an eye on the news as if more value opens up it could help facilitate this process even more as the day goes on and we lead up to 7:30PM EST lock!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!