Padres Hunter Renfroe: The next Jonathan Schoop or Rougned Odor?

Padres’ outfielder Hunter Renfroe has more home runs (30) than walks (28) in his short Major League career. Can he sustain that ratio and still be a Major League regular?

I know Hunter Renfroe doesn’t play second base, but the similarities in the high-power and low-walk profile of the trio are striking.

With 4.1 WAR, the Orioles Jonathan Schoop had a fantastic season, finally harnessing his power with 32 home runs, 105 RBI and a .293 AVG, despite only walking 5% of the time. In Texas, Rougned Odor, another walk-shy player, finished the season with -1.0 WAR. He went deep 30 times but hit .204 while striking out 162 times. Renfroe’s season was somewhere between the two.

In an 11-game cameo at the end of the 2016 season, the Padres’ outfielder looked sensational. Renfroe hit four home runs with 14 RBI and a slash line of .371/.389/.800. It was a small sample, but he had already gone deep 30 times that season in Triple-A hitting over .300 with 105 RBI.

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The former first-rounder was an exciting sleeper on draft day, taken with an ADP of 218 as the 68th outfielder off the board. But, like many rookies, he was unable to live up to the hype.

In 2017, despite hitting 26 home runs, Renfroe offered only replacement level production. The 25-year-old slashed .231/.284/.467 while striking out 140 times to just 27 walks.

He became too reliant on pulling the ball (50% compared to going to the opposite field just 19% of the time). He benefited from an advantageous 18.7% HR/FB although the .275 BABIP was well below his career average.

Following a 20-game stretch of 14-for-68 (0.219 AVG), the Padres optioned Renfroe to the minors. The comments by Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune summed up the situation:

"Hunter Renfroe began this season hoping to contend for the National League Rookie of the Year award. With six weeks left, he received the first demotion of his young career."

In Triple-A, Renfroe took the opportunity to work on his fielding, on-base skills and hitting the ball out of the park; three elements that Padres manager Andy Green demanded improvement.

When he was recalled from the minors, for coincidentally another 11-game stretch at the end of the season, Renfroe again looked like a superstar, hitting six home runs (including three in one game) with .980 OPS.

On the whole, the season was disappointing. Power is far more plentiful these days, so Renfroe was one of 74 players with at least 25 home runs. Only five of the 74 walked less than the Padres’ outfielder although Renfroe went deep at a better per-game rate than either Schoop or Odor.

One of the biggest surprises was the widening of the gap in his platoon splits. In the minors, he had always hit left-handed pitchers well, and last season he continued with 1.077 OPS, but he slumped to just a .202 AVG (.636 OPS) when a right-hander was on the mound.

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Barring any blockbuster trades, Renfroe should be the Padres’ right fielder on Opening Day, and then the rest is up to him. It is difficult to consistently be productive with a 29% strikeout rate and a growing inability to hit right-handed pitching. He will enter the season with the opportunity of emulating Schoop’s breakout or Odor’s disappointing season.