Nylon Calculus: Kyle Lowry is an underrated star leading an underrated team

For the past several seasons Kyle Lowry and the Toronto Raptors have seemingly embodied each other. Forgotten above the border and under LeBron James’ shadow, both Lowry and the Raptors have been simultaneously respected yet not really taken seriously by mainstream media and fans after four consecutive solid regular seasons leading to underwhelming playoff results. When Lowry resigned with the Raptors for three years and $100 million last summer, some were skeptical of the deal because it meant Toronto was stuck on the dreaded “treadmill” — good but never a serious title contender.

Turns out, the Raptors have been better than ever in the early going thus far. Much has been made about the impact their young role players have had and how much they’ve “modernized” their offense by moving away from an iso-ball offense and towards a more pass-friendly, pace-and-space one:

Those changes have made a clear impact. Toronto’s SRS — a Basketball-Reference.com stat which takes into account margin of victory and strength of opponents — of 6.74 ranks third in the league and atop the Eastern Conference, and is a notable step above where they’ve been during the past four seasons of the Lowry/DeRozan era. Credit Head Coach Dwane Casey and GM Masai Ujiri for taking this team with the same talented, but flawed core, to a new level this year.

They’ve gone from “Run of the Mill Eastern Conference Playoff Team” in 2014 and 2015 to “Non-Serious LeBron Challenger” in 2016 and 2017, and their performance early on in 2018  puts them closer to the level of the 2017 Spurs, 2016 Thunder and 2015 Clippers — legit Conference Finals-caliber teams who in a non-GSW era could be realistic title contenders.

Through all of Toronto’s success, Lowry has been the catalyst. Though DeMar DeRozan is a more skilled scorer and has greatly improved his all-around game, earning him more praise among some fans, the Raptors have historically performed worse with him on the court. The Raptors have been an average of 8 points per 100 possessions better with Lowry on the court in 2016 and 2017, although it’s been closer to even so far in 2018 as the Toronto bench has stepped up. RPM isn’t the best stat to use this early in the season, since it’s very noisy, but Lowry is quietly in the top 10 among all players again — third among point guards — and his mark of 4.66 is right around where it’s been the past five seasons. If you put a lot of stock into RPM, Lowry has been a no-brainer top-15 player in the NBA in terms of impact:

Outside of RPM, Lowry’s box-score stats have dipped slightly this year. He’s playing more off the ball and shouldering less of a load on offense, leading to a scoring average of just 16.2 points per game. Kyrie Irving has had somewhat of a breakout year in Boston and is probably a safe bet to pencil in as the starting point guard for the East in the All-Star Game (unless Biebs steps it up), but Lowry still belongs within the ranks of the top Eastern Conference point guards.

Beyond being the best player on one of the top teams in the conference he leads the group in RPM and is behind only Irving in BPM. What he lacks in scoring volume he makes up for in efficiency and rebounding.

Slightly concerning is that Lowry is the oldest of the group, and some indicators like his career-low free throw, block and steal rates could suggest he won’t perform at this level for too much longer.

Next: LeBron's path to the top goes through Houston

Of course, until Lowry and the Raptors achieve meaningful playoff success — which would probably entail knocking off or at least seriously challenging the Cavs or Celtics — they won’t fully get the respect they’ve earned in the regular season. I do think the playoff knock on Lowry is a bit overstated, as he’s performed worse but far from terrible in the postseason in his career (he has a career playoff BPM of +2.3 and had two 35-point performances against the Cavs in 2016), and the Cavaliers have mastered the art of peaking in the postseason. But if the Raptors keep up their current production, they could present a challenge LeBron James hasn’t seen in the East in a very long time.