NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday December 18
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday across FanDuel and Fantasy Draft while breaking down our PlayLine strategy!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Sunday’s Picks and Pivots plays set us up for a nice day across all contests as four of the top five scoring plays on the slate were in the core of our line-up build! LeBron James (60), Bradley Beal (44), John Wall (43) and Mario Hezonja (47.5) all put up massive days at the core of our build. The one player we did not have, Nikola Vucevic (60) was able to match the output of LeBron as he capitalized on a game environment without Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Top High Priced Guards:
Looking over this Monday NBA DFS slate we have a TON of injuries right off the bat which open up a variety of early value plays and set up this slate for a clear Stars and Scrubs roster approach!
Ben Simmons ($17.5K on FD and $9.9K on FanDuel) is only guard eligible on FantasyDraft but you can make the argument that he is one of the best “pay up” plays on the board as we already know that Joel Embiid will miss tonight’s game against the Bulls which puts Simmons in an increased usage spot! With Embiid off the floor this season, Simmons sees a 5% usage increase however even at this reduced price this could be an interesting fade as in his last three games without Embiid, he has failed to top 50 fantasy points which is a mark he will need in order to achieve value at these price points.
Lonzo Ball ($13.4K on FD and $7.3K on FanDuel): Although we are still waiting on Vegas data for this game, the Warriors/Lakers game is the clear top spot to build around in my opinion as it has by far the fastest projected pace by more than 5 possessions and the Warriors/Lakers see two of the largest pace boosts of any teams in action tonight.
Lonzo has put up 43 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games which would exceed 3.2x value on FD and he gets to take on a Golden State team he just logged 15 points and 10 assists against for 37 FD points. The multi-category upside makes Lonzo one of my favorite tournaments plays and in this fast paced game environment he has a massive ceiling at a reasonable price point!
Kris Dunn ($12.4K FD/$7.5K FanDuel): Dunn is a great example of a player where we can take advantage of a price difference between sites as he we get him at a price point on FantasyDraft that feels entirely too low! Dunn comes into tonight’s game with the Sixers having hit at least 3x value in four of his last six games and this Philly/Chicago contests has the second fastest projected pace on the slate which makes it a great game environment to attack!
The Sixers rank 24th in DvP versus the PG position and Dunn steps into this game with double-digit shot attempts in each of his last seven games. Over the last two weeks, Dunn has a team leading 29.1% usage rate and has put up 1.24 FP/M and in a pace up spot like this we could see him approach his 50 fantasy point ceiling tonight!
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Damian Lillard ($16.4K/$8.7K) is an elite player that is priced at a not so elite level and I think on this slate he has some sneaky upside in a match-up against a Minnesota team that will likely be without its best on ball defender in Jimmy Butler. Lillard has put up 43-44 FD points in each of his last three meetings with this Minnesota squad and has 50+ fantasy points in four of his last seven outings!
PlayLine Play: Lillard is one of the key plays in PlayLine’s Million Dollar Perfect Line-Up challenege today as we will need to accurately predict his point total tonight! Lillard has put up 30 or more actual points in three of his last six games and this looks like a game where I think we can aggresive in our stat projections for Dame!
NBA DFS – Top Value Guards
Jamal Crawford ($6.9K/$3.5K): Keep an eye on the injury status for Jimmy Butler tonight who is listed as questionable for this tilt with the Trail Blazers. Butler was not able to complete a full practice on Sunday due to a back injury and it is completely realistic to think that Minnesota will opt to play it safe tonight and rest Jimmy Buckets.
Remember a few weeks back when Jeff Teague was forced to miss a few games and Tyus Jones stepped into the starting line-up and immediately played 30-35 minutes a night? That’s the Timberwolves way kids – the starters play all the minutes they can handle and if Butler is out and Crawford draws the start then he is going to be in every single line-up I make. Without Butler on the court this season, Crawford has a 26% usage rate which would be third on the team while putting up just under a FP/M of production!
Yogi Ferrell ($9.7K/$4.8K): Dennis Smith Jr. could potentially return to the Mavericks starting line-up tonight but if he is forced to miss this game, Yogi Ferrell could find himself in another smash spot against a Suns team ranked dead last in DvP and Def-Eff against the PG position this season!
Ferrell has put up two monster outings against the Spurs over the last week, dropping 32 and 44 FD points which would put him at or above 3.3x value at this price point while playing 30+ minutes a night. If DSJ was to return it would take him out of consideration but because of the uncertainty, Ferrell may be off people radar as they start their roster builds today – do not make that mistake, keep him on your short list at guard and keep an eye on the news as the spot would set up perfectly for him to crush value at this price point!
NBA DFS – Top High Priced Forwards and Center Plays:
Kevin Durant ($22.1K/$12K): With so much value already open on this slate, I see no reason not to start every single roster tonight with Kevin Durant. The Warriors see the largest pace boost of any team on this slate (scary huh?) and will be without Stephen Curry AND Draymond Green tonight which means it’s the All KD show! With Curry and Green off the court this season, Durant sees a 5% usage bump and is averaging over 63 FD points over the last three games with those two off the court. The price may be high but with so much value to utilize tonight, just lock him in and move on!
Karl-Anthony Towns ($16.7K/$10.7K): The price on FanDuel is more than fair but the price on FantasyDraft is simply thousands too low and he needs to be a lock in your FD line-ups tonight. Towns has put up 54+ fantasy points in five straight games which would return over 3.2x value at this price point and now we get the added benefit of having Jimmy Butler potentially missing this game! With Butler off the court this season, KAT sees a 3% usage boost and with his most recent form he makes for a scary fade as the upside continues to be massive for him each and every night.
Brandon Ingram ($12.1K/$7K): I have already mentioned the massive pace increases in this Warriors/Lakers game and if you are building around Durant, I love the idea of running it back with Lonzo and Ingram on the Lakers side. Looking at game logs is something as DFS players we are forced to do in many cases as we cannot watch every single game as they unfold, but if you have watched the Lakers play at all in recent weeks, you are seeing an elite talent that has seemingly taken the next step in his development.
Ingram has put up 40 or more fantasy points in two of his last four games and will face off with a Golden State team he dropped 50 FD points against just a few weeks ago on the back of 32 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 combined blocks/steals. The price point is reasonable considering the GPP winning upside that Ingram possesses and he makes for a great one-off play or a core piece in any Golden State/Lakers stack!
NBA DFS – Top Value Forward and Center Plays:
Jordan Bell ($8.5K/$4.7K): No Draymond = All the Bell! The Warriors forward/center is a multi category fantasy monster who should continue to shine with Draymond off the court as he has in his most recent games. In the last two games with Draymond and Zaza Pachulia off the court (also ruled out for Monday), we have seen Bell start alongside Omri Casspi and Durant and has put up between 25-30 fantasy points which would return 3-3.5x value at this price point!
Casspi ($8.1K/4.5K) will likely start at the PF position tonight alongside Bell and after putting up a 40 burger against Dallas in his last game should be a popular value target tonight! In the Warriors last game, I used the Durant/Casspi/Bell trio in all my line-ups and they responded with over 135 fantasy points against Dallas – now factor in the same injury scenarios and a game environment where Golden State sees the largest pace boost and this trio becomes a great core stack again tonight!
With the injury to Joel Embiid and the fact Trevor Booker is out 2-3 weeks, we can go back to the front-court value in Philadelphia with Richaun Holmes ($7.9K) or Amir Johnson ($7.2K). Holmes is the preferred play between the two on FantasyDraft as he has put up 32+ fantasy points in two of his last three games but on FanDuel where you can only use Holmes at Center, you can easily pivot to Johnson who put up 30 fantasy points the last game that Embiid missed.
The Golden State/Philly forward value is a core spot for me tonight as if you start with 2-3 of these players, you can easily stack 2-3 studs in your line-up without having to sacrifice much else across the rest of your roster!
NBA DFS – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up
G: Damian Lillard ($16.2K)
G: Lonzo Ball ($13.4K)
G: Jamal Crawford ($6.9K)
F/C: Kevin Durant ($22.1K)
F/C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($16.7K)
F/C: Jordan Bell ($8.5K)
Util: Omri Casspi ($8.1K)
Util: Richaun Holmes ($7.9K)
FanDuel Sample Line-Up
PG: Damian Lillard ($8,700)
PG: Lonzo Ball ($7,300)
SG: Jamal Crawford ($3,500)
SG: Justin Holiday ($4,800)
SF: Kevin Durant ($12,000)
SF: Omri Casspi ($4,500)
PF: Jordan Bell ($4,700)
PF: Amir Johnson ($3,500)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,700)
Slate Overview: With all the value in the Golden State and Philly frontcourts, you simply lock 2-3 of those guys in and build around the 2-3 studs you want tonight. Anytime you have this much value to start the day (with more likely to come – ie. Jimmy Butler sitting) you can lock in on a Stars and Scrubs roster build and start to prioritize which studs you want to build around!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!