Brewers Corey Knebel: Top-Tier Fantasy RP in 2018?

Corey Knebel burst onto the scene last season for the Brewers and emerged as one of the more dominant RP in MLB. But, has he ascended to the top-tier status?

The fantasy discussion on relievers varies owner to owner. As the game has evolved into bullpen warfare, RP are taking on increased value. Last season, Corey Knebel entered the season as an intriguing set-up man for the Brewers. But, no one could have guessed that Knebel would blossom into one of the best closers in baseball.

But, did he do enough to warrant being considered as an elite RP option in 2018?

Corey Knebel’s breakout came out of relative nowhere but he has long been lauded as a potential “closer in waiting” since being drafted by the Tigers in 2013. Once acquired by the Brewers in 2015, Knebel showed flashes out of the bullpen immediately.

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He posted a 3.22 ERA over 50 innings that season, but took a step back in 2016, posting a 4.68 ERA over 32 innings. However, he did battle an oblique injury to start that year.

Entering 2017, Neftali Feliz was ticketed as the closer. Feliz predictably did not last long in the role , yet Knebel came out of the gates blazing. He posted no higher than a 1.46 ERA over his first 24 innings and assumed the closing duties in May.

From there, he took off. He ended the season with a 1.78 ERA/39 SV/126 K/1.15 WHIP over a league-high 76 games. To put how dominant Knebel was in context, he surrendered only 15 runs all season and no more than six runs in any month.

No one could barrel up Knebel either. Righties only posted a .205 AVG/.295 OBP against him and lefties struggled even more so,.156/.288 OBP. He posted 17% LD and 21% Soft contact rates as well, furthering how well he threw the ball last season.

A major key to his success was that he saw a 2 mph increase to his fastball. Knebel already possessed a solid fastball. he sat at the 95 in 2016, but the uptick and his ability to attack hitters up in the zone with it, was what the doctor ordered.

With elite fastball velocity, nasty curveball, and funky delivery, Knebel all of a sudden has everything fantasy owners look for in a premier RP selection.

With all the positives, it also important to look at few red flags in his peripherals. For one, Knebel’s flyball rate climbed to 45% last season. He only surrendered six HR, but he will have to be careful to navigate Miller Park again.

Another “concern”, is that Knebel posted an incredible 92% LOB (or Strand rate) last season. That basically means that he was able to strand 92% of runners on base last season. That number will predictably drop, which will drive up the ERA some.

All things considered, the positives largely outweigh these red flags. The raw stuff has never been in question and even improved last season. His batted ball rates have continued to stay solid, and last season we saw what his improved arsenal can do when in concert.

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Knebel deserves top-5 consideration heading into 2018. There are of course the big three in Jensen/Kimbrel/Chapman, but after that, Knebel is right there. He is a prime target after the top three go, yet can produce the results that owners salivate over.

Corey Knebel is legit.