Clint Capela is enjoying a career year and should be an All-Star

Just about everything has gone right for the Houston Rockets this season. The excellent play of James Harden allowed the team to thrive when Chris Paul was injured in the first game of the season, and since CP3’s return to the lineup, the Rockets are 14-0, and are currently atop the NBA at 25-4. It’s safe to assume each member of the Rockets’ high-powered backcourt will earn an All-Star nod. But you may be surprised to know there’s another Rocket with a decent shot at earning a trip to Los Angeles this February — their hyper-athletic big man, Clint Capela.

Capela has been a quality player joining the Rockets’ rotation in 2015-16, but he’s always been thought of as more of a role player than a centerpiece. That said, he’s taken his game to a new level, and while he’s not usually the name we associate with All-Star honors, his case is stronger than ever. Capela is averaging career highs in points, rebounds and blocks, while also leading the NBA in field goal percentage at 69.4 percent. Where he really shines, however, are the advanced numbers. He’s third in Defensive Box Plus-Minus, sixth in PER and second in Win Shares per 48 minutes, trailing only his teammate, Harden (though Paul would be ahead of him if he qualified).

Just about every advanced metric in existence tells us Capela is one of the most valuable bigs in the league. So, will he be rewarded with an All-Star nod?

It’s hard to say. For one, the Western Conference has no shortage of quality front-court players. Kevin Durant is a lock for an All-Star selection and so is LaMarcus Aldridge. While the Pelicans have been floating around .500, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are both putting up ridiculous numbers, and will likely earn spots. Figure that in the backcourt CP3, Harden, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are all locks, and the final guard spot will be either Damian Lillard or Jimmy Butler. That’s 10 spots filled already. Blake Griffin would have been a lock if he hadn’t gotten inured, but there’s still the likes of Paul George, Draymond Green, Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic and Marc Gasol (although the Grizzlies’ poor record will hurt Gasol’s case quite a bit). It’s a crowded field, and at least one deserving player will end up missing out.

Whether or not Capela gets in will depend of a variety of factors. The first is whether or not the Rockets keep winning. If it’s All-Star time, and the Rockets are something wild like 41-6, it’s going to be hard to deny them three All-Stars. If they still have a better record than the Warriors at that point, it will be hard to justify the Warriors having four All-Stars while the Rockets would just have two. Remember, three years ago, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver both earned All-Star nods because they played on an absolutely lights out Hawks team. When a team plays extremely well, voters like to reward them with as many All-Stars as possible. Admittedly, this year the format is switching to a system where players are drafted by other players. That could alter the dynamic, but probably not; if anything, players might be more willing to reward someone for being on a winning team.

Beyond that, there’s a question of how hyper-efficient Capela has been versus the obvious limitations of his game. Yes, Capela has a higher Defensive Box Plus-Minus than Draymond Green, but the fact still remains if you were choosing a player as your defensive anchor, Draymond gets taken for his versatility. Likewise, doubles up Paul George in win shares per 48 minutes, but George is a more complete player who carries far more weight on his shoulders. Finally, he has a slightly better PER (and a much better team record) than Jokic and the Nuggets, but Jokic is a much more foundational big man, whereas Capela is a complimentary piece.

What Capela is doing is extremely impressive, but it’s at least partially due to his fortunate circumstances. He plays on the best 3-point shooting team in the league and the incredible spacing his teammates create for him allows him to avoid double-teams and be dominant in the post. Additionally, there’s the CP3 effect. Before this season, DeAndre Jordan had lead the league in field goal percentage for five straight years. This year, it’s Capela. There’s no denying playing with the most precise passer in the league has done wonders for Capela’s finishing around the rim.

Capela still brings a lot to the table in his own right, but it’s worth noting he’s been given the perfect situation to succeed. Whether or not he should get an All-Star nod over a player with a more fleshed-out game who plays in more difficult circumstances will be a tough decision for voters.

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I’ll be honest, in spite of all of that, I’d like to see Capela make the All-Star game. He’s a ridiculously fun player to watch, and he’s the type of high-flying 5 All-Star games were made for. Furthermore, while Capela is helped by his situation, he also contributes to the Rockets dynamic considerably. He’s a stifling defensive big, and he adds some inside ferocity to the Rockets’ shoot-the-lights out style.

Plus, let’s be honest, it’d be more fun to reward Capela for thriving as the third-best player on a great team than to give a reputation-based nod to, say, Paul George while he slogs through an unremarkable season on a disappointing team. If Kyle Korver was an All-Star three years ago, I say Clint Capela should be one now.