Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday across FanDuel and Fantasy Draft while breaking down our PlayLine strategy!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Friday Night’s NBA DFS slate was loaded with superstars and boy did they ever deliver as James Harden (73), Russell Westbrook (67) and Kevin Durant (65) were the top three scoring options on the night. Overall we had ten players that scored 50 or more fantasy points on the night setting up for a massively high scoring night across all contests!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Top Guard Plays
Back to back MONSTER slates is one heck of a way to kick off your Christmas vacation and as after a massive Friday night we get right back into it with another 12 game slate on Saturday. As a point of housekeeping, there is no NBA on Sunday as the league preps for its Christmas Day slate but I will put out the Christmas Day Picks and Pivots article on Sunday so you have plenty of time to research and prep before Monday without having to try to cram it in on Christmas morning as you get dirty looks from your family!
CJ McCollum ($14.6K/$7.4K): The Portland/Denver game stack was a gigantic letdown last night as Portland simply could get nothing going and the picture I have chosen here for this page is rather symbolic as without Damian Lillard on the floor – this is what it pretty much looks like for CJ McCollum every time he touches the ball!
McCollum was highly popular last night and although he saw the expected uptick in usage/volume, he shot poorly from the floor and fell flat with only 22 FD points on the night! I say this all the time after a player duds in a popular spot – but if the logic and rationale that made him popular is still relevant than why wouldn’t you go RIGHT BACK TO IT while everyone else jumps off?
Is Damian Lillard still out? Yes! Does McCollum still see a massive usage boost with him off the floor? Yes! Tonight he gets one of the best match-ups on the board as Portland is in the fastest pace game environment on the slate and see the largest pace boost of any team in action!
I am sure people will see the dud last night and the match-up with KCP defensively and it will deflate his ownership but keep in mind that CJ put up 33 FD points against the Lakers the last time they met and that was with Dame on the court. I want as much exposure as I can get to the fastest pace game on the slate and if you are building around Portland, then McCollum is the clear #1 target!
Lonzo Ball ($13K/$7.5K): As I mentioned the Lakers/Blazers game is the fastest projected pace game on this slate, even more than Indiana/Brooklyn which in of itself should be a track meet, so I want to find as many ways to stack this game as I can.
The beauty of stacking this game is that the prices are all in a reasonable mid-range price point so you have the ability to stack all the core pieces in this game easily and still work in 1-2 high-priced players into your build.
Ball just continues to improve and where he was earlier a GPP only play, it is safe to say he is generating a relatively safe cash game floor putting up 35+ fantasy points in each of his last five games.
What I LOVE about the Lakers right now is we are seeing Luke Walton play a Timberwolves style rotation – meaning the starters are all logging major minutes while the bench picks up the scraps. Last night for example, the Lakers played four of their starters 34 or more minutes, including Lonzo who played 37 minutes against the Warriors. I love the correlation of using Lonzo/McCollum together in this fast paced game environment between two banged up teams playing a tight rotation right now!
NBA DFS – Guard Pivot Plays:
The one play that I have a ton of early interest in tonight is John Wall ($16.4K/$9.5K) who was seemingly back to normal health, logging 32 and 33 minutes and was walking into an elite match-up against the Brooklyn Nets. After lock, news leaked that Wall would be on a 25 minute limit in this game and he ultimately only saw 16 minutes of court time as the Wizards got the doors blown off them in Brooklyn.
Tonight Wall gets another elite match-up, perhaps the best one a PG could ask for as the Wizards take on a Magic team ranked 30th in DvP and 26th in Def-Eff against the PG position! This is a spot where game log watchers and those who got burned may jump off, but if we can keep our eyes open for news today that Wall will be back to 32-33 minutes this evening, then he has the potential for a massive bounce back outing at home.
PlayLine Play: Wall is one of the key plays in the PlayLine $1M Perfect Line challenge tonight and I think because of the uncertainty around his minutes you can stagger your three free entries and strategically look to project him with limited minutes or conversely look for 30+ minutes and 35-40 point upside!
The biggest injury news I am tracking tonight is in Memphis as Marc Gasol looks doubtful to play which when you combine that with Mike Conley being off the floor, makes this an elite spot to go all in on Tyreke Evans ($14.4K/$8K). With Gasol AND Conley off the court this season, Evans has a team leading usage rate of 33% while putting up 1.3 FP/M. and would be in line for all the usage/volume he can handle against a banged up Clippers squad.
Speaking off the Clippers, Milos Teodosic is due back tonight after resting on Friday but I think you still have to give strong consideration to Austin Rivers ($10.1K/$6k) who has put up 56 shot attempts in his last three games while sporting a 31% usage rate over the last week. The Clippers right now are a two-man offensive show as Austin Rivers and Lou Williams are taking all the shot attempts and soaking up all the usage and while I think a stack of both is firmly in play, Rivers at the cheaper price point in both formats gives you similar exposure/upside at a better point per dollar play!
Last but not least, do not overlook the Nuggets tonight who get one of the biggest pace boosts of any team in action tonight as they take on the Warriors. Gary Harris ($12.8K, $6.5K) returned to the line-up last night after a one game hiatus and played his usual 30+ minutes, logged 30+ fantasy points and remains of the steadiest fantasy plays in NBA DFS this season. The Nuggets are playing an insanely tight rotation right now with a seven man rotation so loading up on a Nuggets core tonight makes for a viable strategy in any format!
NBA DFS – Top Forward and Center Plays:
Kyle Kuzma ($12.6K/$6.8K) and Brandon Ingram ($12.4K/$7.1K): As I mentioned, the Lakers/Portland game has the highest projected pace and the price points on the key players in these tight rotations are simply too low considering how much run they are getting. Last night the Lakers played Lonzo Ball, KCP, Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram between 36-43 minutes each and with the injury to Brook Lopez, the Lakers frontcourt is going to be a spot we look to load up on each and every night until the price points dictate a pivot.
Kuzma is simply playing out of his mind right now, putting up 51 and 55 fantasy points in his last two games without Lopez on the floor and at this price point is an absolute lock for me as a one-off play and as a core piece in a game stack. Ingram has the best individual match-up as Portland is weakest at defending the wing and has put up 43+ FD points in two of his last four games which would put him at GPP multiplier value on FantasyDraft!
Nikola Jokic ($13.7K/$8.3K) remains priced at a bargain level considering his upside and coming off a 50 spot last night should be a popular target at Center tonight against Golden State! The Nuggets right now are playing a seven man rotation, running the offense through the Joker and the fact he has played 35 and 36 minutes in his last two games should give us all the confidence we need that he is back to full health. This is a player that is routinely priced above $10k on FanDuel so we should pounce on the discount while we can but be aware that Golden State loves to go small in these match-ups to try to force opposing big men off the court but with the Nuggets down to such a small rotation, I could see the Joker forcing the Warriors to play it more straight up.
If you are looking for value tonight, take a look at Brandan Wright ($6.3K/$3.5K) who looks to be in line for a starting assignment with Marc Gasol doubtful to play. Wright is now back healthy after nursing a groin injury and at a minimum price point with plenty of court time expecting guarding DeAndre Jordan, it would seem like a virtual lock he could at least hit value on this slate. Wright is only Center eligible on FanDuel so I am not sure I want to burn that spot with him in that format and would much rather use him on FantasyDraft as his near minimum price can be used at F/C or Utility to open up better plays across the rest of your roster!
NBA DFS – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up:
G: CJ McCollum ($14,600)
G: Lonzo Ball ($13,000)
G: Tyreke Evans ($14,400)
F/C: Nikola Jokic ($13,700)
F/C: Kyle Kuzma ($12,600)
F/C: Brandon Ingram ($12,400)
Util: Gary Harris ($12,800)
Util: Brandan Wright ($6,300)
FanDuel Sample Line-Up:
PG: Lonzo Ball ($7,500)
PG: Austin Rivers ($6,000)
SG: CJ McCollum ($7,400)
SG: Tyreke Evans ($8,000)
SF: Brandon Ingram ($7,100)
SF: Andre Igoudala ($4,400)
PF: Kyle Kuzma ($6,800)
PF: Jordan Bell ($4,500)
C: Nikola Jokic ($8,300)
Slate Overview: My initial take on this slate is we have another LOADED guard position to sort through and on a site like FantasyDraft I would look to exploit the multi-position/utility format to get as many guards as you can into your line-ups. The Portland/Lakers game is my favorite game stack on the board as you can easily stack the key plays listed here plus Jusuf Nurkic (great GPP play) and still have enough salary left over to grab 1-2 other high-end plays!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis.