Welcome to the Christmas Day edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday on FantasyDraft and helping you build your best core line-up on any site you look to play on!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Saturday Night’s NBA DFS winning line-ups were built in the “secondary” range of superstar plays as our Picks and Pivots core play, Tyreke Evans, led all scorers on the night with 64.75 fantasy points! The late news that Giannis Antetokounmpo would be out pushed me and many other towards Khris Middleton who did not disappoint with 47.75 fantasy points and a key high owned player on many winning teams for this slate!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – How to Attack the Guard Position:
First and foremost – Merry Christmas to all the Picks and Pivots readers out there. I truly enjoy writing this column each day, interacting with many of you over social media and getting to share my ideas and insight with each of you about DFS! I appreciate all the feedback and support you have shown to me and Fantasy CPR and I hope you have an amazing holiday with family and friends.
The NBA is giving us quite the Christmas present today with a five game slate LOADED with the biggest stars which means we have some tough choices to make in our roster build.
James Harden ($21,600 on Fantasy Draft): The trick to this slate in my opinion is making sure you anchor your line-ups to the correct 1-2 studs and filling in around them. The guard position at the top comes down to whether or not you are taking Russell Westbrook or James Harden and frankly, this is the easiest decision to start with as The Beard without Chris Paul on the floor is going to be the first player in every line-up I make on Christmas Day!
Against the Clippers, Harden reminded everyone what a DFS force he can be as the primary ball-handler as he racked up 51 points, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, 3 steals and 73 fantasy points, which also happens to be his second straight 70+ fantasy point outing!
The Rockets without CP3 and Clint Capela (questionable for this game) essentially ran a five man rotation as three starters played 40+ minutes each and if you look at the last week without the guys on the floor, in 71 minutes of court time, Harden is sporting an absurd 46% usage rate while putting up 1.8 FP/M.
Come on people – after Santa and his well-groomed beard drop off the presents, we get to sit back and watch The Beard play some hoops – I am all in on the Christmas Day Beard Narrative!
LeBron James ($21.3K): If a Chris Paul-less James Harden is priority #1 than LeBron James is number 1A for me on this slate and is going to be the second stud I lock into all my line-ups on this Christmas Day slate!
LeBron steps into this game with 60+ fantasy points in nine straight games, sporting a 34% usage rate and 1.6 FP/M output over the last two weeks. The reason I am going LeBron over Kevin Durant here is that LeBron is showing a FLOOR of 60 fantasy points, playing perhaps the best basketball of his career, while we have seen KD put up 35 fantasy points in two of his last three outings.
As I mentioned, you simply NEED to jam in 1-2 studs on this slate and picking the wrong one could be the death-blow to your chances of cashing. Durant has shown a floor recently that introduces simply too much risk so if picking between the two, I will take The King who has an elite floor and is playing at a sky-high level right now. National TV, on the road, Christmas Day – yeah, its LeBron by a landslide.
NBA DFS – Top Mid-Range and Value Guards
UPDATE: The injury to Lonzo Ball opens up some critical value on this slate, making the Lakers the perfect place to lock in some value plays around our Harden/LeBron combo. We already know Brook Lopez is OUT, as is Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram is questionable to play which puts Jordan Clarkson ($9K) in an elite spot as he gets a 6% usage bump and leads the team with a 34% usage rate with those three off the court. Do not overlook Tyler Ennis ($6K) at minimum price who could end up drawing the start so Luke Walton keeps Clarkson on the second unit. We may not know before lock so stacking both is a potentially viable option in case Ennis draws the start with Clarkson soaking up all the usage on the second team!
Eric Gordon ($13.2K/$5.6K) is a play I am far more likely to utilize on FanDuel where we have to roster two shooting guards than on FantasyDraft where I have more flexibility but considering his expanded role with CP3 out and the fact he comes into this game with 30+ FanDuel points in three straight games, he makes for a solid mid-range play in any format.
On FantasyDraft, I am finding myself looking to go more forward/center heavy in my builds as I believe there is better point per dollar value at those positions, which means we will have to dig deep for value for our remaining two guard positions!
Jerryd Bayless ($7.2K) has entered the starting line-up for the Sixers due to an injury to JJ Redick, playing 33 and 23 minutes as the starter for Philadelphia and gets a favorable match-up against the Knicks in the earliest game on the slate.
One strategy note – with this slate starting at noon EST and covering games that do not start until 10:30PM EST you have no choice but to play late swap on FanDuel. On FantasyDraft, the slate will lock at noon so I think strategically you should only look to “question marks” in this first game and load up the sure fire locks in the later games.
We will have the news on Redick prior to lock, meaning we will know if Bayless is a viable option but we have already seen this is a player who has put up 20+ FD points in three of his last four games and has hit 3x value on FD in two of his last three games. At $7.2K on FantasyDraft he is one of my favorite punt plays at a relatively weak guard position!
Nick Young ($6.4K on FD): As many of you know, I have moved all my DFS action to FantasyDraft so my primary focus has been on that site and the one thing I have noticed playing there is that finding punt value is significantly harder than on FanDuel. On this slate it becomes even more of a challenge as we simple NEED to jam 1-2 studs into our line-up which means taking some value shots we may not normally want to.
If I am going to drop down to extreme punt territory, I want to get a player with massive upside, not someone I am hoping can simply “claw their way” to value in 20 minutes. Swaggy P in a nationally televised match-up against the Cavs for an undermanned Warriors team feels like the perfect GPP dart throw on this slate. Young is going to play his 20 minutes a night and against a Cavs team ranked dead last against SG’s this season, this is a spot where you could seem him approach 25+ FD points which is has hit three times over the last two months, so the “upside” is there as a low owned tournament difference maker!
NBA DFS – Solid Mid-Range Value at Forward
When building my roster on FantasyDraft what stood out to me was that we have an incredibly solid mid-range tier at forward which means I will look to utilize those plays to fulfill my remaining forward and two utility spots!
Paul George ($12.4K) and Carmelo Anthony ($11.5K): The recent lackluster play has taken the prices for Russell Westbrooks sidekicks down to a level on FantasyDraft I think we need to price enforce on this slate. With a match-up against the Rockets, this is a great pace up spot for the Thunder and if you are fading Westbrook for Harden, I love the strategy of stacking PG13 and Melo as a correlation play in the hopes that Westbrook takes a “back seat” in this outing.
George is coming off one of his best games in recent weeks, dropping a 50 burger against the Jazz after putting up 33 and 35 FD points in his previous two games. At this price point, George only needs 37 FD points to hit value which means there is ample profit potential here and the he reminded us of his 50 point ceiling on Saturday night.
Melo has been putting up 30 fantasy points a night as the obvious third wheel in this offense and the price point on FanDuel is certainly still too high, but when you look at the choices on FantasyDraft in this price point, its rare you get a player putting up nearly 20 shots a game in his recent outings at this mid-range price point.
Ryan Anderson ($9.3K) and Trevor Ariza ($10.3K): The injury to Clint Capela has resulted in the remaining Rockets starters logging MASSIVE minutes in a shortened rotation and although I expect people will look to go the Nene route for value, we may not have definitive news on Capela’s status prior to lock so I think you can target the same match-up here with guys we know will play regardless of Capela’s status.
Ariza’s game log is simply fascinating – this guy has now played 40+ minutes in FIVE straight games – that kind of minutes security in the price range is VERY valuable. Ariza has been a solid 25 FD point per night play but has also flashed near 50 point upside in the right match-ups as he did versus the Lakers two nights ago.
Anderson is certainly more volatile but has shown his upside with 33 FD points in two of his last five games, racking up double-doubles in both those contests. Anderson has historically been a better shooter on the road, so with this game being in OKC, I think we can roll him out with confidence as a high upside value play who would get an additional boost if Capela is ruled out!
NBA DFS – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up:
G: James Harden ($21,600)
G: Jerryd Bayless ($7,200)
G: Nick Young ($6,400)
F/C: LeBron James ($21,300)
F/C: Paul George ($12,400)
F/C: Carmelo Anthony ($11,500)
Util: Ryan Anderson ($9,300)
Util: Trevor Ariza ($10,300)
Slate Overview: First off – enjoy your Christmas Day – take some time to really enjoy spending time with family and friends and if you get a chance to kick back and enjoy some NBA then all the better.
As I am sure I will get the “Where is the FanDuel Line-Up” question on Twitter – One of the reasons I failed to write-up much on FanDuel today is that I have ZERO interest in playing late swap there today – the slate spans 10+ hours and I can tell you I am not going to be monitoring my phone for news when I could be watching my kids open presents. You can certainly apply the same line-up logic to FanDuel as I have laid out here however (trust me, I tried) but I will be locking in my FantasyDraft line-ups early and enjoying my Christmas.
Have a great Christmas Eve and Christmas Day and I hope you all get memberships to the Jelly of the Month Club!
Next: FanDuel NFL Week 16 Picks
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!