Rays Blake Snell is a Fantasy Sleeper for 2018
By Bill Pivetz
The Rays may look like they are rebuilding but they still have a good starting rotation. One name to keep tabs on is Blake Snell.
The Tampa Bay Rays may be looking up in the standings throughout the 2018 season. After the Yankees getting Giancarlo Stanton and the Rays trading Evan Longoria, things may not go well this year. Though, the team has a solid starting rotation (for now) and one pitcher with a breakout season waiting is Blake Snell.
Snell made his debut in 2016 and made 19 starts. He finished with a 6-8 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.618 WHIP. He also posted a 9.9 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 in 89.0 innings. While he didn’t blow anyone anyway, fantasy owners wanted a piece of Snell last season.
He had a 232.2 ADP, 24th round pick in standard ESPN leagues. Those owners who kept him throughout the season were rewarded with decent ratio stats and a good strikeout rate based on his innings pitched.
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Snell pitched in 129.1 innings, posting a 4.04 ERA, 1.330 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9. He went 5-7 and threw seven quality starts in 24 appearances. Most of his starts early in the season went just five innings as he eclipsed 100 pitches in that span.
Snell became more effective late in the season by going seven innings with the same amount of pitches. Increasing his stamina will help not only his longevity but relieve some of the pressure from the bullpen. And what fantasy owner doesn’t like more innings and strikeouts from their pitchers?
He finished as the No. 98 starting pitcher on the Player Rater. Snell lost control in his second season, seen by his 36.7 Zone percentage in 2017. He had four percent fewer first-pitch strikes. While Snell did increase his ground ball rate, his HR/FB rate almost doubled between seasons.
Pitching in the American League East will do that to a pitcher but his ability to keep the ball on the ground will help limit the opposing batters’ damage. Then again, pitching to Aaron Judge and Stanton multiple times a season will undo any progress he made. Just look at his batted ball rates, 18.8 soft, 48.4 medium and 32.9 hard-hit rates, all regressing from 2016.
The Rays lost Alex Cobb to free agency and are still shopping Chris Archer. If he is traded, the rotation will look a lot different with Snell moving up to the No. 2 spot, behind Jake Odorizzi. He will get closer to 30 starts if he stays healthy but you can’t predict injuries.
As of now, Snell is a decent pitcher as a high SP5. He can reach a strikeout an inning but still needs work on his control and lowering his walk rate. The power in the AL East will keep his ERA above a 3.50 but seeing as how the 20th-lowest ERA in the league last year was a 3.54 (Aaron Nola), he is more than worth a 24th round pick. I would move him up to the 21st round, behind Robbie Ray.