Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Friday night’s winning line-ups were largely driven by two of the games biggest stars who had monster nights as DeMarcus Cousins (83) and Russell Westbrook (73) were the top point scorers on the night. The mid-range was really where the difference was made on this slate as players like Dwight Howard (59), Otto Porter (53) and Dennis Smith Jr. (52) rounded out the top five scoring plays of the night!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
I introduced this first look format yesterday and I think for NBA DFS it makes sense to keep utilizing it to help set the stage for each slate. There are some big time injury news items that impact this seven game slate and I think it is important to have that context before we dig in much more!
Stephen Curry looks like he will return today against the Memphis Grizzlies, although there has been no official confirmation, the expectation is he should get the green light to return from his ankle injury. The match-up against the Grizzlies basically cements this is a good “wait and see” spot for Curry as no team sees a bigger point and pace decrease on this slate than the Golden State Warriors. The return of Curry puts an end to the run of super usage Kevin Durant and not surprisingly, every Warriors play sees a usage decrease with their star guard back on the guard. With a slow-paced game on tap for Golden State, a 13 point favorite, and the usage spread that comes with Curry’s return, this is a game that I will likely avoid entirely.
DeMarcus Cousins and the Pelicans will take on the Knicks at home in a game with the highest implied total and the second fastest projected pace. After a monster 83 point outing last night, I expect Boogie to be the “go to” stud on this slate as LeBron James sees a pace down match-up with the Utah Jazz and Kevin Durant has to share the court once again in a pace down spot with Memphis. The interesting thing about this match-up tonight is that the Knicks are actually one of the best teams at defending opposing Centers, ranking 6th in DvP and 3rd in Def-Eff. In his last three meetings with Enes Kanter (all as a member of the Thunder), Boogie has put up 46, 52 and 61 fantasy points which means he would only meet value in one of those three contests at nearly $20k of salary on FantasyDraft. I am certainly not saying that Cousins is a bad play but the combination of recency bias (big game last night) and lack of other clear superstar, may lead Boogie to be over-owned tonight!
Overall on this slate, it is interesting to note that ten of the fourteen teams in action see a neutral or pace decrease tonight with high-scoring teams like the Warriors and Cavaliers seeing two of the biggest point decreases on the slate. At first blush, this looks like a slate where we can easily identify the handful of teams in the elite game environments and if we are not going to pay up for the highest priced stars, can we build a balanced roster we feel good about in the mid-range?
NBA DFS – All Eyes on Lillard
The biggest news I am watching on tonight’s slate is the status of Damian Lillard who was expected to re-join Portland last game before getting a late day downgrade to questionable and was ultimately ruled out. Lillard steps into today with another questionable tag and unlike Thursday night, we get the “benefit” of an earlier start time against the Hawks, just 30 minutes after lock, so the hope is we have a definitive answer on Lillard before we lock our teams in for the night!
Assuming Lillard is ruled OUT, this is a spot I plan on attacking heavily as Atlanta ranks 24th in DvP and 27th in Def-Eff as a team. If we look back at the previous game with Lillard out (versus Philadelphia) we saw that the entirety of the Portland offense ran through three players and this would be the trio I would look to build around tonight!
C.J. McCollum ($14.2K) led the team with a 34.7% usage rate and 1.33 FP/M, dropping 50 fantasy points against the Sixers and would get an elite match-up tonight against a Hawks team ranked 25th in DvP in defending the SG position.
Shabazz Napier ($9.6K on Fantasy Draft and $4.8K on FanDuel) just flat-out remains too cheap for as long as he is the starting point guard for Portland. In his last three starts for the Blazers, Napier has put up 33, 40 and 36 fantasy points for an average of 36 fantasy points which would exceed 3.7x value (GPP target on FantasyDraft) and over 7.5x on FanDuel. Napier had a 30% usage rate last game with a 1.04 FP/M rate and would be a lock and load play against a Hawks team ranked 27th in Def-Eff against the PG position!
Jusuf Nurkic ($12.7K) may not be the obvious lock that McCollum/Napier have been with Lillard off the court, but we saw last game against Philly, Nurkic racked up a 32% usage rate and a team leading 1.5 FP/M while logging 42.5 fantasy points. On one hand, I am hesitant to “chase” the big game from Nurkic because of the lack of minutes – as he has failed to played over 30 minutes in the month of December. On the other hand, the match-up is downright JUICY as the Hawks are ranked 24th in DvP and 23rd in Def-Eff against the position so this is another spot where Nurkic could deliver a massive night. On a site like FanDuel where you can only roster one center, and the masses moving towards Boogie, I love the idea of using Nurkic as a GPP pivot!
NBA DFS – Trust the Process Another Time
I may have buried the lead here with all the talk about Curry and Lillard’s injuries, but let’s not overlook the injury situation in Philadelphia. We already know that Joel Embiid is OUT tonight and we will need to wait on the status of Robert Covington who is questionable to play against the Nuggets tonight. The fact that Covington is nursing an injury and was limited to 24 minutes last game makes me wonder if this is a spot where the Sixers will opt to sit him – keep in mind that this is the sole “late game” starting two hours after lock so we MIGHT not have the news on RoCo before we have to lock in for the night!
At this point, I think everyone knows the drill with Embiid – when he sits out, Ben Simmons ($15.2K and $8.7K on FanDuel) gets a massive boost. The price is getting to the point where you simply have to take notice and I think because of the lack of stars tonight, people will look to use their salary on Simmons, blindly playing the narrative that you use Simmons when Embiid is out.
If you look at the last two weeks, if you take Embiid AND Covington off the court, Simmons only sees a 2% usage boost and the reality is, Simmons is being far less aggressive in recent weeks as defenses take away the lane and force him to shoot which right now, he frankly cannot. In the last three games that Embiid missed, Simmons put up 29, 45 and 56 fantasy points so the range of outcomes is clearly wide but I will look to play the strategic fade here, as the Nuggets have the bodies to keep Simmons out of the lane and at a likely inflated ownership, I think we can get a big time advantage over the field.
On the Sixers side, no players sees a bigger usage boost than JJ Redick with Covington and Embiid off the court but the match-up tonight could not be worse for the Sixers sharpshooter as he will have to deal with the defense of Gary Harris who is ranked 3rd amongst all SG’s in DRPM.
On the Sixers side, the two plays I am going to look to build around are Dario Saric ($13.4K) and T.J. McConnell ($8.8K). Saric is priced at a discount relative to a player like Simmons but has every bit the upside, racking up 43 and 50 fantasy points in two of the last three games Embiid has missed. McConnell meanwhile is back to his well-rounded DFS output, playing 30 minutes a night and racking up 30 fantasy points per game over his last two outings which would put him at 3.4x value on FantasyDraft. If you look at the Sixers rotation last game with Embiid and Covington IN, they played a tight rotation, essentially rolling out 7 guys including Embiid for 35 minutes. if both players sit, the Sixers are going to be extremely short-handed and with all the available usage will make for a great team to build around!
NBA DFS – We love the Sixers but we may love the Nuggets even more!
As much as I plan to build around the Sixers, I have every intention of stacking this game and running it back with extensive Nuggets exposure! This Sixers/Nuggets game has the fastest projected pace on the slate and the Nuggets see the largest pace AND point boost of any team in action tonight! If you read Picks and Pivots you know that is a combination I always look to exploit and tonight will be no different!
The Nuggets, just like the Sixers, are essentially running a seven man rotation so the usage and fantasy output is relatively easy to predict which seems insane considering Mike Malone’s historical tendencies.
Even though Emmanuel Mudiay is back and healthy, the timeshare at PG seems to be officially dead and this job is all Jamal Murray‘s ($12.8K) at this point. Murray has played 35+ minutes in three of his last five outings and has put up 33, 36, 42 and 45 fantasy points over that recent stretch. In a pace up environment like this, I love the upside for Murray at a price point that scream profit potential.
With Joel Embiid out, who in the hell is going to stop Nikola Jokic ($15.8K) tonight? The Joker has played 36+ minutes in three of his last four games and racked up 31, 38, 44 and 50 points over his last four games. This is a dream spot against an undersized Sixers team and I will be all in on Jokic tonight!
Lastly, the best place to attack the Sixers is at SG where they rank 26th in DvP and 28th in Def-Eff so firing up players like Will Barton ($12.4K) and Garry Harris ($11.5K) is a great strategy tonight. With Harris forced to chase around Redick, I will look to take the upside on Barton for a slightly higher price point with much less defensive responsibilities!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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G: Jamal Murray ($12,800)
G: Will Barton ($12,400)
G: T.J. McConnell ($8,800)
F/C: Nikola Jokic ($15,800)
F/C: Dario Saric ($13,400)
F/C: Jusuf Nurkic ($12,700)
Util: CJ McCollum ($14,200)
Util: Shabazz Napier ($9,600)
Slate Overview – This one is simple for me – keep an eye on the injury news to Lillard and Covington and react accordingly. I plan on stacking up the Sixers/Nuggets and using the Portland trio assuming we get the news that Lillard sits again!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!