DraftKings NBA picks January 3: Pay for Westbrook tonight
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA picks January 3: Pay for Westbrook tonight
We have a huge NBA slate with 12 games tonight. That means some are on the second night of back to backs. Kawhi Leonard is likely out, but will anyone else sit out? If so, we may have additional value plays across the slate. As always, keep an eye on starting lineups until the slate locks. You may still be screwed over by the later games, but at least you will have a good start!
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The money line was a modest 250.75 tonight. I put my lineup with LeBron in the money (thanks Beastley!). The other missed because of below average night from Prince and Tony Parker.
The winning lineup was only 318.25. He built around Booker, Blake, and Kawhi and got value out of Chriss, Wade, and Evan Turner.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,700): Westbrook now has at least 60 DraftKings points in six straight, and more than 70 in the last two. He also has a superb matchup with the Lakers tonight. In a night full of stars, if you are going to pay for one, it should be Westbrook.
Chris Paul ($9,600): Paul took over a lot of the scoring after Harden left the game on Sunday night. It is unreasonable to expect Paul to shoulder all of the scoring load, but he will see an uptick, and his assists could get even higher as well. If you are looking for a DFS threat of Harden’s caliber on his team, it will be Paul.
Stephen Curry ($8,900): Curry nailed ten three pointers in just 26 minutes in his return to the floor against Memphis on Saturday. Of course, not every matchup will be as nice as that one. Dallas wont be. However, Curry’s minutes should be over 30 tonight and if he is anything like Saturday night, his salary is too low for what he can produce.
Honorable Mention:
John Wall ($8,700): Wall has been cold from the floor lately, but he does enough elsewhere to give him a high floor. Wall has shot just 16-39 from the floor over his past three games, but has still picked up a little over 38 DraftKings points per game. He has a nice matchup with the Knicks, and if Wall finds his shot, he could also be a value at this price.
Kyrie Irving ($8,500): Irving stuck it to his former team for 50.5 DraftKings points when they met earlier this season. Thomas will sit out tonight, so Irving will get the same batch of guards that couldn’t contain him the first time around. Irving is one of the most reasonably priced players with a shot at 50 tonight.
Jamal Murray ($6,700): Murray has been on fire lately, putting up more than 33 DraftKings points in each of his last four, including 92.75 in his last two games alone! Now he gets to take this hot streak to the Suns, a team that is in the bottom five of points allowed this season. Murray looks like a great play tonight at this low of a price.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,100): The hot streak is over, but Dinwiddie could up a game worthy of one of those during his streak. The Timberwolves are without starter Jeff Teague, and were in the bottom third of the league defending the point anyway. Ownership on Dinwiddie will be pretty low due to his recent struggles, but he could put up a nice line for those willing to take the risk.
Dark Horses:
Ish Smith ($5,900): Smith even put up 5x value on the Spurs on Saturday. His price is still low enough that he is a strong play while starting for this price. The Heat defend well, so don’t expect him at much more than 5x value tonight, but he could get close to 6x. Smith has 67 DraftKings points in two games with Reggie Jackson out.
Dejounte Murray ($4,700): This is nothing more than a speculative play in case Tony Parker sits out the second night of a back to back. Murray has over 30 DraftKings points in each of his last four starts. If Parker sits, Murray is a great value play.
Jarrett Jack ($4,300): It’s hard to believe that he and Ntilikina are the same price. Jack plays double the minutes that Frank does. Jack has nowhere near the upside, but he almost always outdoes Ntilikina based on the amount of playing time alone. This is a decent matchup against Washington for both. I would trust Jack more in cash games, and Ntilikina as nothing more than a GPP flyer.
My pick: Westbrook(PG), Jack(UTIL); Paul(PG), Jamal Murray(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jimmy Butler ($8,600): After a little hiccup against a pretty good Bucks team, Butler is back on track, putting up more than 45 points in all but the Bucks game since Christmas. Butler has taken over as the facilitator of the offense as well with Teague out, so his assists are up and his scoring is where it has been the last month or so. He has solid upside and a pretty high floor with Teague out.
Bradley Beal ($7,700): On a night in which Wall was cold from the floor (again), Beal put up a show on New Year’s Eve with 70.25 DraftKings points, his career high. This is another pretty good matchup for Beal. Many are going to be chasing DeRozan because of his career high 52 on Monday and the fact that he is playing the team that Beal just toasted, but DeRozan only has 65 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls this year. Beal looks marginally safer, and he is cheaper.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,300): Mitchell rocked the Pelicans for 53.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting between these two teams. The rookie is still a little bit inconsistent, but he has dropped 50 an average of about once every four or five games this year. Another performance like the first is not out of the question.
Honorable Mention:
Eric Gordon ($6,800): While it is true that Paul will help shoulder some of the load, Gordon is the mostly likely to take over as the scorer on the wing. He was cold from the field on Sunday, but the volume and the minutes were there. We have seen what can happen when Gordon gets going. Orlando is in the bottom five against shooting guards this year. Gordon is priced right and has quite a bit of upside.
Gary Harris ($6,300): Will Barton has more upside, but Harris provides the kind of consistency that wont destroy a lineup. Harris has only been under 25 DraftKings points once in the last dozen games. Barton has been all over the place. You wont see Harris throw up a game in the high 40’s, but you wont see him under 20 either.
Jaylen Brown ($5,300): Brown cooked up 36 DraftKings points in the first game with Cleveland. To expect that again would be a little much, but Brown has been a solid contributor across the board for Boston. The Celtics have so many guards that it’s hard to tell which one will post the best numbers. Brown gets the most consistent minutes, so he has the best chance against Cleveland’s soft perimeter.
Dark Horses:
Justin Holiday ($5,000): Holiday has 53.75 DraftKings points in two games against Toronto so far this season. He has also been over 5x value seven times in the last ten games. Holiday seems to be back on track after coming back slowly from injury. He carries the added benefit of a small price tag as well.
Gerald Green ($4,100): Green stands to gain a lot of playing time with Harden sidelined. He has 44.75 DraftKings points in two full games with his new team. When you add a fairly significant uptick in minutes to that, Green has the makings of a very nice value play.
Joe Young ($3,200): Young put up 29.75 DraftKings points last game with Lance Stephenson struggling from the floor. There is no guarantee that Young will see 24 minutes again anytime soon. That was his high on the season. However, this performance may have given him a longer look, especially if the Pacers need some quick points off the bench.
My pick: Butler(SG), Green(G); Green(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($11,300): Boston is not a great matchup, and LeBron did play 34 minutes last night. We all know how LeBron feels about resting, but there is a chance that Tyronn Lue intends to limit his minutes. I can see James hitting over 50 again, but don’t expect a repeat of the 66.5 he dropped on Boston earlier this year.
Kevin Durant ($9,700): I’m not going to sit here and tell you not to play Giannis, but he has not hit value in his last five games. Durant has a rough looking matchup on paper tonight, but the Warriors have already played Dallas twice. Durant came up with 112.25 DraftKings points in those two games. Durant should provide good numbers at low ownership tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Paul George ($7,600): George hasn’t been nearly as consistent as he was earlier in the season, but he has dropped over 50 DraftKings points in two of the last four games. George can produce even with Westbrook putting up huge numbers, especially in a nice matchup like he has tonight with the Lakers.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,500): RHJ has hit value six times in his last eight games. His emergence as a scorer has added another element to his game, and has made RHJ a solid fantasy play all season long. I don’t see him with a lot of upside, but he is almost always at value, making him a decent GPP anchor and a very good cash game option.
T.J. Warren ($6,400): Warren kept up with Booker’s scoring last night, but while Denver is strong against shooting guards, they have had issues with small forwards. For my money, Warren is a safer play than Booker, especially when you consider the price difference.
Dark Horses:
Josh Richardson ($6,300): Dion Waiters is still out, so Richardson should continue his strong run here. Richardson has at least 22 DraftKings points in nine straight games, and has blown past 5x value even at this price in six of those. Richardson also put up 32.75 in the first meeting with Detroit. There is value to be had here.
Trey Lyles ($5,100): Lyles is seeing starter’s minutes, and is was too cheap for what he has done. Lyles has at least 5x value in five straight and eight of the last 11 games. This is a great matchup with the Suns, who are getting better up front, but mostly offensively. I love the value of Lyles tonight.
Michael Beastley ($4,800): Trust me. I’m spelling it right. The Knicks have done well with Beasley providing huge energy off the bench. Sometimes he plays lengthy minutes with the
starters if he really gets going. There is significant upside here, but he still carries some risk.
Jae Crowder ($3,900): Crowder gets another crack at the team that traded him. He picked up 24.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting, and considering the way that Crowder has been scoring lately, he seems to be very reasonably priced.
My pick: Beasley(SF), Lyles(F); Lyles(SF)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Aaron Gordon ($7,800): The position is loaded with plays that I don’t like tonight. A.D. had under 40 his first time against Utah. Porzingis has tough matchup, and despite Boston’s struggles at the four, Love struggled against them. This is a good matchup for Gordon here. Let’s see if he strong play keeps up.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,600): We caught a glimpse of what the Spurs could be at full strength this year in the game last night. Kawhi had a strong game, and so did Aldridge. That puts Aldridge at 5x value or better four times in the last five games. The Spurs will likely be without Leonard tonight, so expect Aldridge to have an even larger offensive role.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Mirotic ($6,500): It’s tough to predict which of the Bulls power forwards will have the better night. Markkanen gets the first shot since he starts, but Mirotic has been over 5x value in all but one game since his return. His upside is capped due to the logjam at the position, but Mirotic is still the safest option.
Derrick Favors ($6,000): Favors has put together three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. Favors racked up 43.75 in the first meeting with New Orleans. He has proven that he can tangle with Davis and have success doing it. Add to the fact that Gobert is still out, and there is sneaky value here.
Kelly Olynyk ($5,900): You could make a case for Olynyk remaining in the starting lineup even when the Heat get their starters back. Olynyk can be hard to use for DFS purposes due to his inconsistency, but the upside is there. He has cracked 40 a few times with Johnson out.
Dark Horses:
Dirk Nowitzki ($5,100): A day in the life of Dirk: Get up. Eat. Go to arena. Warm Up. Play 30 minutes. Pick up 30 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. Go home. Repeat. This consistency makes Dirk an excellent cash game play.
Domantas Sabonis ($5,100): Sabonis is the preferred GPP play over Dirk for the same price. The upside is there, but this is still a fairly crowded Indiana frontcourt. Sabonis has stepped it up lately as the Pacers have increased his minutes. That makes the upside even higher. Thad Young is slowing down, but this youngster looks poised to seize the job at any moment.
Marquese Chriss ($4,600): The secret it out on Chriss. Most DFS players are aware that he topped 40 last night at a very low price. The price is similarly low tonight, and the matchup is just as good against Denver without Millsap. Expect another strong game from Chriss.
My pick: Chriss(PF); Chriss(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,500): More often than not, Cousins is the one to own. His upside has been much higher in most matchups, and it likely will be tonight. Favors will spend some time on Boogie, but I am guessing that Udoh will see more Boogie time. It doesn’t matter. It’s still a good matchup for Cousins.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): The Nets have locked down power forwards thanks to RHJ, but they still don’t have an answer in the middle. They are hoping that Okafor will be, but he still isn’t in “game shape” yet. Towns has 30 double doubles this year and is averaging 21 points and 12 rebounds over the last month. Play him with confidence tonight.
Nikola Jokic ($9,000): Jokic is back on track lately, putting up 5x value or better in each of the last two games. He has a great matchup with the Suns tonight, so expect to see him at or above that level tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Clint Capela ($7,400): Capela struggled and ultimately fouled out against the Lakers on New Year’s Eve, but he will have a great chance to get back on track tonight. The Magic aren’t particularly strong in the middle anyway. They are even worse without Vucevic. Capela should be in store for a strong night.
Pau Gasol ($6,800): Gasol was just starting to produce consistently when Leonard came back. With Leonard likely out, I like Gasol to top that 40 DraftKings point plateau against a Sixers team without Embiid.
Hassan Whiteside ($6,600): Whiteside put up 42.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Detroit in only 29 minutes, so even if Miami is limiting his minutes again, Whiteside is still a solid bet for value tonight. I would much rather go with Whiteside at this price than Drummond at nearly $3,000 more.
Dark Horses:
Bismack Biyombo ($5,600): Biyombo has filled in nicely For Nikola Vucevic. In four games without Vucevic, Biyombo has 135.5 DraftKings points. That makes him a great bargain for this price, even against a team like Houston.
John Henson ($4,800): The Pacers have allowed the most fantasy points to centers in the league this season. Henson continues to see around 30 minutes with Monroe gone, so his chances of hitting 5x value are very good on a normal night. They are excellent tonight. As high at 8x value is possible against Indiana.
Jordan Bell ($4,600): Bell has at least 22 DraftKings points in six straight games. He earned himself a nice role on this team, and we can reap the DFS rewards. Bell lacks huge upside, but he is automatic with value right now.
My pick: Whiteside(C); Towns(C), Biyombo(F), Henson(UTIL)
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