Fantasy Baseball 2018: Did Chase Anderson finally figure it out?

Brewers starting pitcher Chase Anderson finally put together an All-Star worthy season last year. Should we expect another one or was this a one-year wonder?

Starting pitching in a fickle position in fantasy baseball. While you have the elite at the top, the rest are interchangeable. Some can help with strikeouts and others can lower your ratio stats. It’s all about drafting the right combination.

Brewers top pitcher Chase Anderson helped in the latter stats but it was the first time he’s been a fantasy-relevant pitcher. As someone who went undrafted in most leagues, the owners who did pick him up were rewarded with an excellent season.

Anderson pitched 141.1 innings and finished with a 2.74 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 12-4 record. After three seasons of ERAs over 4.00 and WHIPs over 1.250, Anderson was a different pitcher throughout the 2017 season. However, is that something we should expect this season?

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Anderson improved in a lot of areas last season. He lowered his line drive and HR/FB rates and increased his ground ball rate. Opposing batters were making softer contact, 31.7 hard hit rate in 2017 compared to a 36.6 in 2016, and getting behind in counts more often, 61.2 first pitch strike.

Any jam he did find himself in, he was able to get out of it with his 80.6 percent strand rate, five percent higher than his previous career high. Anderson was pitching lights out, posting 13 quality starts in 25 appearances.

As if things couldn’t look any better for Anderson, he increased his fastball velocity by 2 MPH while increasing the usage and speed of his cut fastball. The added deception likely helped his strikeout rate and low contact rate.

Anderson spent six years in the minors before finally getting the call to the main roster in 2014. He made 21 starts and finished 10th in the Rookie of the Year voting. Anderson had two more years of mediocrity before breaking out last year.

I said it before, but I usually draft based on career trends and not one-year outliers. However, with 90 percent of the numbers pointing in the right direction for Anderson, it’s hard to ignore.

Next: White Sox Acquire Joakim Soria

Anderson finished 16th among starting pitchers on the Player Rater. He currently ranks as the 55th pitcher as a 19th round pick, according to Fantasy Pros. Steamer projects a 4.90 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and a 9-11 record.

I don’t think the regression will be that extreme but there will be some regression. I project a 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over a career-high 168.2 innings. Anderson ranks just outside my top 40 but will be worth a late draft pick in most formats.

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