NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday January 5
Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Thursday’s two game slate was thrown into even more chalk mode when Kevin Durant was ruled out which made the Big Three in Golden State the clear core and plays like Stephen Curry (50), Klay Thompson (46) and Draymond Green (56) did not disappoint in a high scoring affair with the Houston Rockets!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate!
After a two game slate on Thursday we jump back into a ten game slate on Friday that at first glance seems to be underwhelming. The highest game total on the slate is only 216 and only three of the twenty teams in action see a material pace increase (of more than 2 possessions over their season average) so there does not appear to be that “must have” spot we simply have to have in our rosters!
Damian Lillard is the biggest name with an early injury designation as he is probable to play with a calf strain. The fact that Lillard is coming off a hamstring injury could lead the Blazers to play it safe here and let their franchise star fully heal in a winnable spot against the Hawks. If Lillard were to sit, Shabazz Napier would become an elite value play against a Hawks team ranked 22nd in Def-Eff against the PG position this year.
The Lakers look to be getting fully healthy as Brook Lopez returned last game off the bench and it appears Lonzo Ball is inching closer to his return which could come tonight against the Hornets. Ball was a full participant in practice on Thursday and has already been cleared to return so barring any pre-game set backs I would assume he sheds the questionable tag and returns to the Lakers starting line-up. With Lopez and Ball back, the Lakers become a cluttered mess from a fantasy perspective as recent DFS darlings like Jordan Clarkson, Tyler Ennis and Julius Randle all look to be returning to their secondary roles in the Laker rotation. One other note – with this game in LA – keep in mind that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be eligible to play, further muddying up the depth of the Lakers tonight!
The Grizzlies have already ruled out Mike Conley and Chandler Parson and Andrew Harrison is doubtful to play which means that Tyreke Evans is going to have his hands full tonight against the Wizards. With those three off the court, Tyreke has a 31% usage rate while putting up 1.12 FP/M and makes for an elite play tonight as the primary offensive weapon on Memphis especially with Marc Gasol‘s recent struggles. From a value perspective, if Harrison is out we could see Mario Chalmers return to the starting line-up as Chalmers played nearly the entire fourth quarter last game when Harrison left with an injury!
It will be interesting to see how the masses treat DeMar DeRozan who is the highest priced guard on FantasyDraft and will get a rematch with a Bucks team he just dropped 75 fantasy points on the back of 52 real life points! DeRozan is shooting lights out right now, hitting over 50% of his shots in three straight games but I would caution you in chasing the points here as DD went 17 for 29, including 13 for 13 from the line in the last outing against the Bucks and chasing that kind of scoring efficiency for a player who contributes little across other statistical categories feels like the easiest fade on the board to me!
NBA DFS – Game Stacks to Target: Chalk City?
If there is one team that jumps out to me initially it is the Charlotte Hornets who have the second highest team total and see by far the largest pace boost of any team on the slate as they take on the Lakers. This is a spot where the pricing differences between sites like FanDuel and FantasyDraft completely change how I feel about this team which I expect will be VERY popular today.
Dwight Howard ($15.4K on FDr and $8.6K on FanDuel) is going to be a popular target today in this match-up against his former Laker team as the #RevengeNarrative will be a strong talking point across the DFS industry today. The price on FanDuel at first glance feels reasonable but keep in mind that in this exact same match-up on 12/9, Howard only “revenged” for 21 points, 12 rebounds which would only give you 36 fantasy points. At this price point on both sites, Howard needs 43+ fantasy points to just hit cash game value on FanDuel and on FantasyDraft where they have aggressively priced allt he Hornets tonight, I think he makes for a pure stay away for me.
Kemba Walker ($15K and $8K) and Nicolas Batum ($12.2K and $6K) both get elite match-ups against a Lakers team ranked 27th and 25th in DvP against the guard positions but just like Dwight Howard, these two were underwhelming in this exact same spot a few weeks ago as Kemba dropped 34 fantasy points while Batum was limited to only 11 fantasy points.
My perspective on this game is that the high total and pace combined with their reasonable price points on a site like FanDuel will make them the chalk stack of the day and we only need to look at this exact same game a few weeks ago to challenge whether or not these players have the “must have” upside that makes them core plays. The other issue for me is that with the Lakers being fully healthy now, the usage is going to be largely spread out making an obvious correlation play on the other side difficult to nail down. I understand the logic of the stack here but I will take my stand and fade this spot entirely and hope the Hornets trio underwhelms again!
NBA DFS – Game Stack Pivot:
So far in today’s Picks and Pivots I have told you who NOT to play including chasing DeMar DeRozan‘s outlier scoring affair and moving away from the Hornets chalk after not a single one of their “Big Three” managed to eclipse 40 points in the same exact match-up a few weeks ago. So you probably at some point would like to know who I actually WANT to play – well good for you, you made it to that part of the article!
The Pistons-Sixers games has the second fastest projected pace on the slate and the Pistons see the second largest pace boost of any team in action tonight behind the Charlotte Hornets. The big news we are waiting on here is the status of Andre Drummond, who missed Wednesday Night’s game, was held out of practice yesterday and is questionable to play tonight which is why we have yet to see a line/total from Vegas in this one.
Starting on the Sixers side, we have no injury news at this point, although a surprise Joel Embiid rest day is always in play in DFS, so we can feel relatively confident in breaking this team down. What I love about the Sixers when fully healthy is that they run their starting five for major minutes and have a relatively tight rotation as evidenced by their last outing against the Spurs when all five starters played 29+ minutes while only Jerryd Bayless and TJ McConnell played over 20 minutes off the bench.
Embiid ($18.3K) is pricey but this is a player with 50+ fantasy points in five of his last eight outings and without Drummond on the floor he could have an absolute field day against an undersized Pistons team.
I have been critical of Ben Simmons ($16.3K) recently but the last two games we have seen him revert back to his aggressive early season play as evidenced by his double-digit free throw attempts in back to back games. When Simmons is at his best he is able to get to the rim and if Drummond is indeed out, it opens up the path for Simmons to attack the rim in get back to his early season triple-double performances.
Robert Covington ($11.3K) is my favorite play from Philadelphia as he gets the best individual match-up against a Pistons team ranked 30th in DvP and 27th in Def-Eff guarding the SF position. When these two teams played on December 2nd, Covington dropped 49.5 fantasy points on the back of 25 points, 8 rebounds and 4 blocks/steals and at this mid-range price point is one of the best point per dollar plays on the board!
The Pistons as mentioned see the second largest pace boost on the board and if we get news that Andre Drummond is out, then we can go right back to Boban Marjanovic ($8.9K and $5.3K) who is coming off a 32 fantasy point outing in only 21 minutes of court time in his last start. With Drummond off the court this year, Boban has a team leading 33% usage rate while putting up 1.27 FP/M which makes him a great GPP play if we are willing to eat the foul risk of him having to guard Embiid!
Ish Smith ($11.4K) feels entirely too cheap tonight considering his guaranteed minutes, having played 30+ minutes in three straight games while putting up 10, 15 and 18 shot attempts in those outings. Avery Bradley ($10.2K) gets one of the best possible match-ups as the Sixers rank 25th in DvP and 29th in Def-Eff against the SG position and just like teammate Tobias Harris ($12.6K) the price points feel too low considering the minutes security. When these two teams played just a few weeks ago, Tobias put up 39 fantasy points so locking him in as part of a cost-effective Pistons stack correlates well with the higher priced stars in Philly!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up:
G: Ben Simmons ($16,300)
G: Tyreke Evans ($14,000)
G: Ish Smith ($11,400)
F/C: Joel Embiid ($18,300)
F/C: Tobias Harris ($12,600)
F/C: Robert Covington ($11,300)
Util: Boban Marjanovic ($8,900)
Util: Mario Chalmers ($7,100)
Slate Overview: It is a bit odd on a ten game slate like this to have so little early injury news but we can certainly bet on some NBA DFS news breaking during the day which makes us change our mindset. For me, I am focused on the Andre Drummond news and how it will impact a Sixers/Pistons game stack and considering that this is the first game of the night we should have all the news we need. Stay tuned to the news and let’s star our weekend off right!
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!