NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Saturday January 6
Welcome to the Saturday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate!
Friday’s winning line-ups were lower scoring than usual, especially on a ten game slate, but we did have some stand out performances including Karl-Anthony Towns who put up a slate leading 61 fantasy points. Only three other players eclipsed the 50 fantasy point mark including both members of the Wizards back-court as John Wall (51) and Bradley Beal (52) put up top end performances against the Grizzlies.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate! The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and go position by position to help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where Do We Start On This Slate?
Happy Saturday Picks and Pivots readers! We have an interesting six game main slate with two early games for those looking to play on the Early Slate. Personally, I am going to keep my exposure focused on the Main Slate and we have a handful of key injury spots to watch as we build our rosters today.
Victor Oladipo is questionable to return to the Pacers line-up today but appears to be trending in the right direction in a favorable match-up against a Bulls team he has put up 43 and 45 fantasy points in two earlier match-ups this season. Oladipo is priced up at $9.3K on FanDuel and $15.4K on FantasyDraft and would need to return similar 45 fantasy point outputs in order to return value tonight. With it being his first game back from an extended injury absence (four games), I would reserve Oladipo to tournament play only as his ownership will likely be low as DFS players take a wait and see approach.
Otto Porter is questionable to play today after a hip injury forced him to leave last night’s game against Memphis would could open the door for Kelly Oubre Jr. to rejoin the Wizards starting line-up in an elite spot against a Bucks team that has struggled all year with wings!
The Cavaliers and Magic have the highest projected game total and the fastest projected pace so this is a favorable game environment to build around. Nikola Vucevic remains out and it looks like teammate Jonathan Simmons could follow him to the bench as he is questionable to play today after leaving last game against the Rockets and missing practice on Thursday and Friday. With his status looking to be in serious doubt, Mario Hezonja ($9.9K and $4K) would likely slide into the Magic starting line-up after starting the second half for the Magic last game when Simmons was forced to leave. We have seen Super Mario start seven games so far this season for the Magic with 40+ fantasy points in two of those games so he has the kind of upside we look for when identifying our GPP punt plays!
The Pistons and Rockets are one of only two games on the slate without a Vegas line/total with the Pacers/Bulls being the other. I understand the Pacers are waiting for the status of Oladipo but what exactly is holding up the line in this Houston/Pistons game? We know James Harden is out and Andre Drummond returned to the line-up last night for Detroit and played 28 minutes so what material injury is Vegas waiting on here? Definitely something a LITTLE fishy with this line/total still not being out as of 8AM EST so keep an eye on the news here in a game with a 7PM EST start!
NBA DFS – Top Game Stack:
As I mentioned, no game on the Main Slate has a higher projected point total or expected pace than the Magic and Cavaliers which make it a great core stacking environment. With this game having a 9.5 point spread in Orlando there is certainly some blow-out risk but we also have two teams with concentrated usage which makes this an interesting stacking spot especially on FanDuel where the pricing seems to correlate better than it does on FantasyDraft.
The Cavaliers get one of the best possible match-ups on the board facing a Magic team ranked 29th in DvP and 30th in Def-Eff as a team. LeBron James ($20.8K and $11.7K) is the top priced play on the board and could be facing a Magic team without Jonathan Simmons and Nikola Vucevic. The price is high but anytime we can get LeBron in a massive pace up spot against a bottom tier defense, the prospect of fading him entirely makes me terrified!
Isaiah Thomas ($12.6 and $6.2K) is expected to join the Cavaliers starting line-up for the first time this season after playing 19 minutes off the bench in his first action for Cleveland. The starting nod is interesting but keep in mind that a minutes restriction is still in place for Thomas which caps his upside and considering the price he would need north of 35 fantasy points to hit value which outside of a game stack would not be a play I would recommend.Kevin Love ($14.2K and $7.7K) is coming off an ugly game and has a probable injury tag for this game which could keep his ownership down but that price point is way too low for me to ignore and if he gets the start against a banged up Magic squad, then I have no issue pairing him with LeBron for a game stack!
The Magic side of this game is just as enticing as the Cavs defense ranks 22nd in DvP and Def-Eff and with all the injuries to Orlando, the usage/volume is so highly concentrated that it makes it ideal for DFS purposes. Aaron Gordon ($14.5K and $7.9K) is dominating the usage for the Magic over the last week with a 31.2% usage rate and 1.1 FP/M and would be my top play tonight from the Magic side and gets one of the best possible match-ups against a Cavs team ranked 24th in DvP and 25th in Def-Eff against the PF position.
Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier and Mario Hezonja (if Simmons is OUT) are all elite value plays on FantasyDraft as not a single player costs more than $12.5K and considering the Cavs are dead last in the NBA in FPPG allowed to SG’s, this would appear to be an elite spot specifically for Fournier. With all the injuries the Magic are dealing with, they are having to play their started for major minutes each night and although I do worry about them getting blown out here, I will absolutely have a game stack tonight in the hope that this fast paced game stays close!
NBA DFS – Pivot Stack:
If you are not playing the Magic/Cavs stack then the Wolves/Pelicans would seem to be the logical pivot point as this game has the second highest game total and second fastest projected game pace. With only a 1.5 point spread, this game checks all the boxes for an elite game stack especially on FantasyDraft where the pricing works much better than on FanDuel.
DeMarcus Cousins ($19K) and Anthony Davis ($18.2K) are both elite plays on this slate and we have seen them dominate this Minnesota team already this year in the same game as in their November 1st meeting, Boogie dropped 73 fantasy points while The Brow put up 55 proving they could both go off in this match-up which makes them an interesting stacking duo!
The one interesting thing to note from the prior two games is how badly Karl-Anthony Towns ($16.5K) struggled defending the Pelicans big men as he racked up five fouls in both games and was limited to 20 and 22 minutes in those contests. We never like to project foul trouble in DFS but considering KAT was the highest projected scorer last night and has not seen his price move, it could be an interesting fade if the masses go right back to the well here!
What I really love about this game is that we get two teams that run their starters major minutes and the usage is so concentrated that it makes figuring out the game stack that much easier. Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo should both see 30+ minutes in this game and on FantasyDraft where they are priced at $12k and $11.6K, I love the profit potential they offer and in a game stack I love the idea of pairing Rondo’s massive assist upside with the Pelicans big men!
On the Wolves side, I plan to fade KAT and would rather attack the Pelicans in the backcourt and on the wings where they rank 21-28th in DvP in defending the PG, SG and SF positions. Jimmy Butler ($15.2K) is my top target from the Wolves side, putting up 45-50 fantasy points in three of his last four games heading into this one. Tyus Jones ($8.5K) has really struggled since taking over for the injured Jeff Teague but the price point is low enough where I simply cannot ignore 30+ minutes against a Pelicans team that is ranked 23rd in Def-Eff against the PG position and we saw Tyus destroy this New Orleans team earlier this season when he started and played 41 minutes while dropping over 40 fantasy points!
If you are playing the KAT fade and assuming he struggles again with fouls, then it makes sense to play the game theory angle and lock in a play like Gorgui Dieng ($7.2K) who averaged 31 minutes and 35+ fantasy points in the previous two contests with New Orleans!
NBA DFS – Slate Overview and Sample Line-Up
Please Note: This is NOT an optimized line-up, it is simply illustrative to show the type of roster build we can have using the logic previously laid out in Picks and Pivots. My actual line-up may differ from the line-up shown here.
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FantasyDraft Sample Line-Up:
G: Jrue Holiday ($12,000)
G: Rajon Rondo ($11,600)
G: Tyus Jones ($8,500)
F/C: DeMarcus Cousins ($19,000)
F/C: Anthony Davis ($18,200)
F/C: Jimmy Butler ($15,200)
Util: Kelly Oubre Jr. ($8,200)
Util: Gorgui Dieng ($7,200)
Slate Overview: On this six game slate I love the two game stacks for the highest scoring/fastest paced games as all four teams involved play a tight rotation and the usage is highly concentrated among a few key pieces. I am usually a one line-up guy but today I like the idea of building a few different iterations of these game stacks and rolling them out in large field GPP’s! Good luck all!
Next: FanDuel NFL Wild Card Round Picks
Best of luck in your NBA DFS contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!