Fantasy Baseball 2018: Roberto Osuna is a sleeper closer

Blue Jays closer Roberto Osuna had a great season but some of his other numbers could hold down his fantasy value. He will be a sleeper pick among closers.

The Toronto Blue Jays thought about moving Roberto Osuna to the starting rotation but that rumor was put to rest. Osuna will enter the 2018 season as the team’s closer with little competition but he isn’t getting the same love as some of his contemporaries, making him a sleeper pick this season.

Osuna posted a career-high 39 saves, tied for fourth most. He also saw a rise in his strikeout rate and drop in his walk rate. However, his ERA went up by 0.7 runs in 10 fewer innings. Osuna finished with a 3.38 ERA, 0.859 WHIP, 11.7 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9 in 64.0 innings.

He finished as the No. 6 closer (fourth if you remove Luis Severino and Alex Wood from the list) the Player Rater. The position as a whole was a bit of a roller coaster, so the elite names rose to the top and the middle tier was muddled with a lot of names.

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Osuna saw his ground ball rate rise 15 percent while his fly ball and line drive rates dropped 13 and two percent, respectively, between 2016 and 2017. Opposing batters made more medium contact but it didn’t lead to a lot of hits.

Osuna was unable to get out of a lot of tough situations, resulting in 59.5 LOB percentage, 154th among qualified relievers.

Osuna was drafted in the ninth round in standard leagues, 89.3 ADP. He was coming off a great season, 2.68 ERA/0.932 WHIP/36 SV/10 K9/1.7 BB9. The increase in ERA was a bit disappointing but the improvements in every other stat made the investment worth it.

I rank Osuna as my No. 8 closer. FantasyPros has him at No. 4. There are just a couple of closers I like more than Osuna but they are all in the same tier. I would not be upset if Osuna was my top closer this season.

Pitching in the American League East does not help many pitchers. The Baltimore Orioles can still rake with Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop. We all know what the New York Yankees lineup is going to look like in 2018 and how hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium is. The Boson Red Sox still have some power hitters on their team.

I don’t like investing an early pick on a closer. As we saw last season, closers are removed from their job more often than any other position. Then again, it is beneficial to try to draft one of the top names and not have to worry about the position for a few rounds. He will be an 11th round pick in standard leagues.

I think he could fall another round or two and it would be hard to pass him up at that point.

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Osuna will have another good season but I don’t’ expect a sub-3.00 ERA from him. If he pitches 65 innings, expect a 3.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 33 saves. At just 22 years old, Osuna has a bright future ahead of him.

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