Giants deal for Andrew McCutchen: Fantasy Fallout

By Brad Kelly | Jan 15, 2018

PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 27: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Pittsburgh Pirates signs autographs for fans before the start of the game against the Baltimore Orioles at PNC Park on September 27, 2017 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

The Giants continue to bolster their lineup this offseason, now adding Andrew McCutchen. What is the fantasy fallout of the deal?

The Giants had a terrible 2017 season. There is no way around it, nor any other adjective to describe it. An offense that could not muster any type of consistent producer outside of Buster Posey, has now recharged itself this offseason. With the new addition of Andrew McCutchen, what is the fantasy fallout of the deal?

For a while, it seemed as though Cutch, like new teammate Posey, was going to be a lifer with one organization. Yet, over the last couple years, things have gotten rocky in Pittsburgh, and it suddenly appeared inevitable that he would be dealt away.

The underlying rumblings could have tanked a lesser man or player, yet Cutch kept his head down and just played. For a player that was supposed to be in the “decline” of his career, all Cutch did was post his best season since 2012.

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He ended 2017 with a, .279/28 HR/88 RBI/.849 OPS line, and from June to July, you could argue he was the hottest hitter in the game.

For the Giants, they have committed to remaking the offense. They have now dealt for both Evan Longoria, and now McCutchen, to form a solid core along with Busey.

In terms of Cutch’s fantasy value, there is no reason he can not be a top-25 OF once again. Looking at his career batted ball data and comparing it to what he did in 2017, his numbers continue to impress.

For his career, he holds 21% LD, 40% GB, 38% FB, 48% Med, and 37% Hard contact rates.

In 2018, those rates came in at 22% LD, 41% GB, 38% FB, 47% Med, and 35% Hard. Those are near identical lines, not to mention he was able to get his BB rate back near 12% while cutting his K rate to 18%.

The only thing we know for sure is that Cutch will not steal 20 plus bases in 2018. He had 11 last season and attempted only 18 steals on the season. He could flirt with 15, but the 20 SB days have been sapped by age.

The move to San Fran certainly caps his power near the 25 homer range as opposed to the near 30 he hit in 2017. He did have 30 doubles last season, so we could see him post around a .275/25 HR/85 RBI/35 SB type of line. Firmly making a mid-round fantasy target yet again this spring.

Similar to the Gerrit Cole deal earlier this week, the return for a former MVP and 3.7 WAR player in 2017, was rather uninspiring. The Pirates received righty starter/reliever Kyle Crick, and 2016 second-round pick, Bryan Reynolds, in return.

Crick is probably a name that stands out. He was universal top-100 prospect once selected in 2011, but a 5.5 BB rate in the minors has severely slowed his progression. The Giants moved him to the bullpen last season, and he took off at AAA. He posted a 2.36 ERA/39 K over 29 innings of work.

This led to his big league promotion, and he continued to pitch well. He posted a 3.06 ERA/29 K/38% GB rate over 30 games. He still featured an upper-90s fastball and will generate plenty of GB, but the command is still in question.

The Pirates will surely look to him as a possible rotation candidate, but fantasy owners will have to wait and see.

Bryan Reynolds is the more intriguing prospect in the deal. A former Vanderbilt star, he is a switch-hitting center fielder who had a tremendous first season in the minors.

At High-A ball last season, he notched a .312/10 HR/63 RBI/26 2B/9 3B/.826 OPS line. He is smooth at the plate and barrels the ball up with ease. He was the Giants fourth-best prospect, but certainly has an upside the Pirates were willing to deal Cutch for.

Speaking of top prospects, Austin Meadows has long been lauded as an impact player for the Pirates. Cutch’s departure would seemingly offer him the fast track to playing time at the majors, but the jury is still out on him after his recent struggles.

Combine that with the mystery of Gregory Polanco, and all of a sudden Reynolds looks all the more primed to find a way to Pittsburgh rather soon.

It is rare to see two faces of franchises, Longoria and McCutchen dealt, let alone to the same team and in the same offseason. But, the Giants have snagged them both, forming a formidable trio in the middle of their order.

Next: Brewers Domingo Santana: Is the breakout legitimate?

Cutch is still a top-25 OF pick, Posey still deserves to be taken as one of the first two C taken, and Longoria’s counting stats will see a bump.

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