Fantasy Baseball 2018: Chris Archer is still an elite pitcher

The Rays may be trading away some of their stars but they still have a few on the team. Pitcher Chris Archer is one of them and should be drafted as such.

The Tampa Bay Rays are likely not going to be competitive in the American League East this season. This is more on the offense than the pitching staff. There are some names in the rotation and bullpen I like. I even wrote about one earlier. Yet, one name seems to be forgotten and that’s Chris Archer.

Archer posted a career-high ERA but that was the only negative to his game last season. In 201.0 innings, he had a 4.07 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 with a 10-12 record. His FIP even decreased to 3.40 last season. Archer saw big improvements in his strikeout and walk rates.

The ratios didn’t increase by much from 2016 to 2017. His ERA went from 4.02 to 4.07 and the WHIP went from 1.242 to 1.259. He allowed just one more run and 10 more hits with seven fewer walks in just 0.1 more innings.

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The main thing that makes Archer valuable in fantasy leagues is his high strikeout totals. He has three straight seasons of at least 233 strikeouts. He reached 249 last year, fourth-highest in the league. Archer was 16 behind Corey Kluber.

The increase in the ratio stats was likely due to the regression in his batted ball stats. Archer had a five percent increase in his line drive rate, 1.5 percent increase in his home run rate and 5.8 percent drop in his groundball rate. Archer also allowed harder contact last season, an increase of 6.6 percent to his hard-hit rate.

Looking at the season splits, Archer fell off a bit in the second half. Most of his stats regressed throughout his 17 second-half starts. The only numbers that improved were his strikeout and walk rates.

Archer was a fifth-round pick in ESPN leagues last season, as the 11th starting pitcher drafted. He finished 29th among pitchers on the Player Rater. There were a few surprising names that finished in the top-20, so I give them credit more than blaming Archer.

The good thing is that his 2017 numbers weren’t too far off from his career averages. Many pitchers go through ups-and-downs, so I’m not wary of a major downfall from Archer in 2018. You should draft him with confidence this season.

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Steamer also agrees with me. They project an ERA closer to 3.45, 1.17 WHIP and over 200 strikeouts in 199.0 innings. Archer has been very consistent on the mound and another 30-plus start season will make it four in a row. He is worth a sixth-round pick as a. No. 1 pitcher in 12 or 14-team leagues. He drops to a high-end SP2 in 10-team leagues.