Deep Fantasy Sleeper Fishing: Orioles Austin Hays

Austin Hays has torn it up in the minors for the Orioles since being drafted in 2016. But, could he take the next step and become a fantasy sleeper this season?

The key to any prosperous fantasy run is the ability to identify breakouts and sleepers each season. In 2017, Hays’ Orioles teammate, Trey Mancini, went from well off the fantasy radar to then becoming a breakout performer. Mancini did that after success in the minors, just as Hays has found over the last two years.

But, could Hays be the next prospect to breakout?

Austin Hays was the Orioles third-round pick in 2016 out of Jacksonville University. He was projected to be a toolsy outfielder that may have to move away from center field, yet possessed the arm and decent enough pop to stick in a corner outfield spot. 

All Hays did during his first two minor league stops between low-A and AA ball was rake. Last season, he mashed at high-A and AA ball, finishing his minor league campaign with a .329/32 HR/95 RBI/5 SB/.959 OPS/32 2B line over 128 games.

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That earned him a cup of coffee to end the season with Orioles, and he wound up getting 63 plate appearances under his belt before season’s end. Heading into 2018, Hays is on the fast track to lock down right field for the O’s.

With Mancini is left, and Adam Jones in center, Hays lacks any competition for the job. The key to a breakout performer is when talent and opportunity merge together. The opportunity is there, now it is time for the talent to shine through.

According to nearly every scouting report, Hays has a solid plate approach that does not see him take many walks, but rather control the zone and barrel balls up with ease. His power continues to impress, and his ability to make solid contact can be seen in the sheer XBH numbers he was posting in the minors.

According to his minor league batted ball data, Hays posted 23% LD, 37% GB, and 38% FB rates last season. Since he does not really pose a threat on the basepaths, and now playing half his games at Camden Yards, those type of splits will work just fine in buoying his power numbers.

There is also the fact that in the minors, Hays pulled the ball over 50% of the time, offering him another prime chance to take advantage of the bandbox in Baltimore.

Hays, like most young hitters, still has room to grow when it comes to being attacked with breaking pitches. It was a small sample rate, but he only posted a 66% contact rate last season. That may limit his AVG numbers next season towards more of the .260 range, but Hays’ plate control has always been a plus to his game and offers some hope.

For relatively nothing but a late-round flier, Austin Hays has quietly risen through the minor league ranks while possessing one of the more impressive all-around skillsets. He has the raw power to be a fantasy commodity, plays in a great fantasy spot, and will find a lineup spot in a still formidable lineup.

Next: Marlins J.T. Realmuto: Only getting better?

Austin Hays could easily post a .260/25 HR/75 RBI/.800 OPS type of line in his first full season. Make him a player to watch this spring, and a draft day target when he officially locks down the RF spot in Charm City.