Phillies Aaron Nola: Breakout season looming?

Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola had a great season. With some improvements to be made, can we see his breakout in 2018?

The Philadelphia Phillies made a few moves this offseason, adding two pieces to their bullpen and a power hitter to their lineup. The starting rotation could use an addition or two but there’s still time. Leading the group is Aaron Nola. After a great 2017 season, can he have an even better season this year?

Nola made seven more starts in 2017 than in 2016. He increased his strikeout rate while seeing a small rise in his walk rate. He allowed more fly balls than ground balls but was able to keep the same HR/FB rate.

At the end of the season, he finished with a 12-11 record, 3.54 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. After being the 51st starting pitcher drafted in ESPN leagues, 195.5 ADP, he was the No. 26 pitcher on the Player Rater. There were some disappointing players but Nola saw a lot of improvements to his plate discipline.

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He produced more swinging strikes and first-pitch strikes and allowed less contact last season. He finished the season with 17 quality starts, T-30th in the league.

Looking at the NL East, the offenses aren’t that good. The Nationals are the most complete team in the division. With Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and the returning Adam Eaton, I wouldn’t want to face this team. However, the rest of the division is manageable.

The Mets added Jay Bruce and Adrian Gonzalez for Yoenis Cespedes but the rest of the team isn’t a threat. The Marlins traded two of their best hitters and they might not be done yet. The Braves have Freddie Freeman but, like the Mets, there isn’t much else. He won’t have lineup protection like other star hitters do.

Citizens Bank Park did finish first in home runs last season. Though, Nationals Park was next at No. 13. The other three parks finished in the bottom half. Four of the five rated 13th or lower in hits. Nationals Park was fourth but the home team’s performance could have skewed the results some.

Nola has made improvements in some key categories but still has some work to do in other areas. With more pitch control, he’ll post better ratio stats, the main numbers fantasy value is judged by. In his age-25 season, he will make 30 starts for the first time. Nola will finish with a 3.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 193 strikeouts and 50 walks over 190 innings.

Next: Blue Jays sign Curtis Granderson

Nola is getting some love entering this season. FantasyPros has him as their No. 18 starting pitcher. He’s my No. 23 pitcher for now. He needs to lower his hits and walks allowed and attempt to keep the ball on the ground more. If he can do that, then there’s no doubt he finishes in the top 20. He is a low-end SP2 in mixed leagues.