Why Chris Paul should have made the 2018 NBA All-Star team

The lineups for the 2018 NBA All-Star game have been set, and for the second straight year, future Hall-Of-Famer Chris Paul has been left off the list. As with last year, we can assume that injuries played a big role in Paul’s exclusion from the roster. Paul has missed 17 out of 45 games in his debut season with the Houston Rockets, and in a conference full of incredibly talented guards, that was likely the factor that kept Paul off the team in favor of players like Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, and Damian Lillard.

But while that explanation might make sense at first, a closer look at the numbers reveals that a big mistake was made in leaving him off the team. Quite simply Paul is playing well enough that even taking into account the games he missed, he absolutely deserved an All-Star nod.

First off, there’s the question of team success. Paul’s Rockets are 33-12 on the season, but they’re 23-5 when Paul is in the lineup compared to 10-7 when he sits out. Even more telling, when the Rockets’ big three of Paul Harden, and Clint Capela all plays, the Rockets are 18-0. The Rockets are a different — and a much better — team when Paul is in the lineup. When the Rockets are at full-strength, they have looked nearly unbeatable, and in fact, they’re 2-0 against the Golden State Warriors in that span. Paul has transformed the Rockets from a very good team to one that might actually be able to challenge the Warriors for an appearance in the Finals. His effect on the team is obvious, and punishing him for missing a few too many games just doesn’t seem fair.

But how do Paul’s numbers compare to some of the players who earned All-Star nods over him. Well, one player who made it was Klay Thompson, who has played in all but one game for the Warriors this season. Despite playing in 19 fewer games, Paul has been worth 5.2 Win Shares for the Rockets, compared to the 3.6 that Thompson has contributed to the Warriors. Paul also has Thompson thoroughly beaten in Value Over Replacement Player, a cumulative stat where he’s earned 2.3 next to Thompson’s 0.7. Paul has been considerably more valuable than Thompson on the season despite seeing the floor far less often. Taking this into consideration, it’s hard to see why Paul earned the nod over Thompson, other than a desire to have four Warriors make the roster.

So, to get Paul into the All-Star Game, the player we’d take out in favor of him would be Thompson. But how does he fair against the rest of the West’s All-Star guards? That’s where it’s a little bit tricky. Paul’s missed time does hamper him when comparing his Win Shares and Value Over Replacement Player to the likes of Jimmy Butler and and Damian Lillard. That being said, he outscores both in terms of PER and Win Shares per 48 Minutes. If we had to pick two out of three between Butler, Lillard, and Paul, it would be interesting choice. Butler would be the most obvious “yes” pick, since he’s stayed healthy and turned the Timberwolves into a playoff team, but between Paul and Lillard, you’d have to choose between Lillard being healthy for an entire season versus Paul turning the Rockets into a juggernaut. It wouldn’t be an easy choice, and I think we’re all happy that Dame didn’t get snubbed for a third straight year, but the point is, Paul over Lillard would at least be worth considering.

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If Chris Paul hadn’t missed any time — or if he had even just missed ten games instead of 17 — he would be a very obvious All-Star. Even as it stands, he would have been a far more logical choice than Thompson, and could hold his own against several of the other Western All-Stars. If an injury to any Western player — particularly a guard — happens between now and then, Paul would likely be the first player to receive an invite to Los Angeles (sorry, Lou Williams). As it stands, being snubbed in favor of Thompson will be just one more motivating factor for Paul as he plans to go to battle with the Warriors this spring. Hell hath no fury like a Point God scorned.