Early DraftKings NBA picks January 28: Brow or the Freak?

We have a seven day Sunday as well, but three are in the afternoon, resulting in split DraftKings tournaments. There is a lot of talent going in the afternoon set with a lot of places to spend our money. There is also value available with Kris Dunn still concussed and Boogie out for the season.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Chris Paul ($9,600): This one is a little worrisome for both Paul and Harden. The matchup is superb as the Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league regardless of position. However, the Suns are still near the bottom defending the point. That said, Paul only has 86 DraftKings points in two games against the Desert Doormats in only 47 minutes of court time. The blowout potential takes away from this matchup, but on a short slate, it may be worth riding Paul to see if this stays close enough to warrant him playing 30 minutes.

Lou Williams ($8,300): Just when you think LouWill has run his course, he drops a 70 DraftKings point night. The minutes are still there for Williams, so we can chalk those games up to a great defense in Boston and an outlier against Minnesota. This is a great matchup for Williams against the Pelicans. Almost as strong as the one against Memphis in which he blew up for 40 and 10 assists. There is really good potential here today as well.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($6,600): So, who is the worst team against the point now? The Suns held that distinction for a while this year. It is none other than the Bulls, a team that Bledsoe has had moderate success against this year. It makes sense though, right? The Bucks are loaded with talent to the point where Bledsoe is often an afterthought. The first game post Jason Kidd was a blowout win over Brooklyn in which Giannis was turned loose. Bledsoe had a sub par night. That could be a trend to watch.

Zach LaVine ($6,100): From a DFS standpoint, LaVine was a bust against the Lakers, but there are a couple of things to take away from that game. First, LaVine played a season high 26 minutes. There is reason to think he could be raised to about 28-30 minutes tonight. However, the big thing was his involvement in the offense. LaVine took 17 shots, which means he is heavily involved in the offense. Once these start falling, LaVine is going to be a hot DFS commodity. It could happen against the Bucks, who aren’t all that great defending the point.

Dark Horses:

Jerian Grant ($5,600): Grant was benched at the start of the second half against the Sixers, but he responded with a solid effort against the Lakers. Grant’s price has risen to the point where it is hard for him to get value at this point. There is a reason that Dunn took his job and never looked back. There is decent potential against the Bucks, but don’t count on him coming anywhere close to what he did to the Pelicans last weekend.

Milos Teodosic ($4,800): Teodosic has put up double figures in scoring in six of the last eight games, including a career best 18 on Friday. What makes that all the more impressive is what Lou Williams did on Friday. Williams and Teodosic seem to be working well together lately with Austin Rivers out. I like the bargain potential on Teodosic today.

My pick: Teodosic(PG); Teodosic(PG), LaVine(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,400): Beard missed the last outing against Phoenix and Paul missed the first, so we really don’t have much to go on here. However, Harden torched the Suns for 67.5 DraftKings points in that first meeting. I mentioned the blowout potential before. Couple that with the fact that Harden’s numbers are slightly depressed with Paul on the court and this may be a situation to avoid despite the great matchup.

Devin Booker ($8,400): Booker’s price is back down to a more manageable level. That is largely due to three straight games of well under 5x value. There is potential here against the Rockets though. Harden is no longer the black hole that he used to be on defense, but he’s not great either. Booker’s better game against Houston was with Harden out though when he put up 49 DraftKings points. He only went for 35.5 in the first matchup.

Honorable Mention:

Jrue Holiday ($7,500): Holiday is due for a big boost in scoring with Cousins out, at least in the short term. We have seen Holiday come up big with both Davis and Cousins on the court at the same time. It should occur even more often with Cousins out. Holiday has the potential you want for GPP play today.

Eric Gordon ($5,400): We know that having Harden back puts a huge dent in Gordon’s production, but this time around it also put a huge dent in his price. Gordon is much too cheap at this price. He is capable of elite scoring off the bench, and it’s not like his minutes take that big of a hit. The Rockets only run eight players, and all of them play at least 30 minutes. I love the potential here against the Phoenix bench.

Dark Horses:

Denzel Valentine ($4,900): Justin Holiday has been mired in an awful slump. Valentine used that to a huge game against the Lakers. Valentine’s minutes have been all over the place lately, but his big game on Friday should afford him more run today. There is potential here, but Valentine could also hurt your lineup. Not as much as Justin Holiday though.

E’Twaun Moore ($4,800): The loss of Cousins will have a trickle down effect to the secondary scorers. Holiday and Davis will absorb a lot of it, but a guy like Moore who plays big minutes can’t help but get some piece of the action. Moore’s scoring has been up lately anyway, as he has at least 5x value in three straight and seven of the last ten. Moore is a safe value play with decent potential this afternoon.

Troy Daniels ($3,900): When the Suns talked about shaking up the lineup, many DFS people, myself included, automatically jumped to that meaning Isaiah Canaan would enter the starting lineup over Ulis. Instead, the Suns went outside the box and moved Booker to the point and started Daniels. The result was a resounding loss to the Knicks in which Daniels, Canaan, and Ulis were all worthless for DFS purposes. However, as long as Daniels starts, there is potential here. Daniels has had some big games off the bench this year.

My pick: Gordon(SG), Moore(G); Holiday(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Khris Middleton ($7,200): MIddleton’s bloated price came back down to earth today with Giannis back. Middleton’s production predictably took a hit with the game dominated by the Freak. That said, this is a solid price point for MIddleton against a team that can’t guard him. Middleton has 79.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Bulls this season. I don’t see that changing much today.

Trevor Ariza ($4,800): T.J. Warren has been handcuffed by Ariza in two meetings this season. So of course, Ariza has hit value in both games against Phoenix this year in no small part because of that defensive effort. Ariza doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he will provide good value at this price point.

Honorable Mention:

Darius Miller ($4,500): Miller stands to gain the most from the loss of Cousins from a minutes standpoint. He has passed Cunningham on the depth chart due to his scoring ability off the bench. There is no guarantee that Miller will start, but we should have the lineups for this game before lock as well. It looks like Miller will be the starter. If he is, there is a lot of potential here.

Josh Jackson ($4,500): The lineup shuffling may not be over in Phoenix, especially with the way that Jackson played in the blowout loss on Friday. Jackson put up 32.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes in that game. When you factor in the struggles of Daniels, Jackson could slide up to shooting guard if they don’t mind Booker manning the point again. The good part is that this game is the early tip, so we will have the starters before lineup lock. There is no guarantee that Jackson will start, but even if he doesn’t, his recent strong play should have earned him more run off the bench.

Dark Horses:

David Nwaba ($3,800): Nwaba has some potential as he is backing up both Grant and Holiday right now. Neither of the incumbents are playing all that well, so Nwaba could pick up good minutes here. Whether that results in production, it’s anyone’s guess. However, on such a small slate, you need separation somewhere. It could be here, for better or worse.

Dante Cunningham ($3,500): Eariler this year when Boogie or Brow were out, it was Cunningham that picked up the starts. I doubt that happens here with the emergence of Miller, but Cunningham will see more run off the bench at the very least. Cunningham lacks upside, but he could be a decent value play.

My pick: Miller(SF); Ariza(SF), Miller(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): I know that Giannis loved Jason Kidd. I get it, and I understand the loyalty to the coach. However, there is a chance that Kidd’s coaching style was holding him back. It may have held the potential back of many current and former Bucks (Greg Monroe anyone?). Giannis stuffed the stat sheet and played 41 minutes in the first Kidd-less game. His outstanding all around game was on full display in a dominant win over the Nets. I have a feeling we will see more of this for the remainder of the season. That makes Giannis the one I’m paying up for today.

Blake Griffin ($8,600): Griffin had 41.5 DraftKings points against both of the towers in his prior meeting with the Pelicans. Now with Cousins out, it’s likely that Davis will tangle with Jordan, leaving Cunningham or Miller to fight with Griffin. I love that matchup here, and with Giannis eligible at SF, you can easily use both with all the value on this slate.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Mirotic ($6,000): Markkanen has been awful against the Bucks this season. Mirotic has more than picked up the slack. Markkanen may still start, but if I’m chancing anyone against Giannis, it’s Mirotic. He also has the added advantage of being cheaper, which you will need if paying up for Giannis and/or Griffin.

Bobby Portis ($4,700): In the prior meetings, the Bulls have needed the size of Portis on the inside. He likely still wont start, but Portis should get plenty of run in this game. Portis performed well in limited minutes against both the Lakers and Sixers this week. Can he do it again?

Dark Horses:

Ryan Anderson ($4,300): Anderson has been a non factor for most of the season. The exception has been against Phoenix. Anderson has 67.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns so far. to put that in perspective, he has 58.75 combined over the last four games. This is literally the only place I have used Anderson in DFS this year, and it still makes me nervous today.

Montrezl Harrell ($4,300): Harrell has returned to a bench role lately, but the way he played with Griffin, then Jordan, out has afforded him more run now that he is back on the bench. There is potential here against the Pelicans bench that takes a hit with Boogie going down.

My pick: Antetokounmpo(PF), Griffin(F); Anderson(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($10,900): Literally the only good thing about losing Boogie is that Davis wont have to tangle with Blake Griffin. Davis put up 54 DraftKings points on the Clippers in the first meeting. His usage is about to get a huge boost, so there is the potential for Davis to have the best game of the afternoon, even with Giannis going. Can we use both?

Clint Capela ($7,100): Capela has given the Suns fits this year with 80 DraftKings points over the two matchups. 47 of those were in the last meeting. The only thing that could move me off of Capela is if Tyson Chandler is held out. Monroe would put up more of a fight.

Honorable Mention:

DeAndre Jordan ($6,700): Jordan has been a solid producer with his price in this range this year. His upside is mostly gone with Griffin back, but we could see him have a better night against the Pelicans without Cousins in the way. There likely isn’t enough potential for GPP play, but I would bet that ownership on Jordan is pretty low with all of the other great options at center today.

Greg Monroe ($5,500): If Monroe plays, I want him in my lineup! He torched Houston for 42.75 DraftKings points back when the Suns actually played him. I feel bad for Monroe. He went from one team that wouldn’t play him to another. Please, someone, trade for this guy and get him some playing time! Monroe is a really good player when on the court! I’m hoping that he is today.

Dark Horses:

John Henson ($5,100): Henson continues to be a strong producer for the Bucks since Monroe was exiled to Phoenix. He had one of his better games of the season against the Nets without Kidd on the sideline. Will his production be better too? It’s too soon to tell, but Henson has decent upside just in case.

Robin Lopez ($4,400): Yes, he still looks like Sideshow Bob from the Simpsons. Yes, he is still mostly a non-factor for DFS purposes. However, Lopez has 49 DraftKings points in two games against the Bucks this season. That puts Lopez comfortably at 5.5x value. I’ll take that from a value pick!

My pick: Monroe(C),Henson(UTIL); Davis(C), Capela(UTIL)

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