Cardinals Carlos Martinez: Finally Joining the Ace Tier?

Carlos Martinez is undoubtedly one of the best starters in MLB. But, has the Cardinals’ righty finally joined the elite tier of fantasy hurlers?

The Cardinals made a big splash this offseason by dealing for Marcell Ozuna. Yet, even though Ozuna fortifies their offense, any hopes of contending rests on the right arm of Carlos Martinez. He has already cemented himself as the ace of St. Louis’ staff, but has he now joined the elite tier in fantasy?

No one would argue that Martinez is one of the better starters in the game, both in real life and fantasy. However, he could never seem to take the step in his progression and put together that one elite level season that fantasy owners seek out.

Last season, followed that same rhetoric. Martinez posted a 3.64 ERA/217 K/1.22 WHIP line over 32 starts. The ERA was his worst 2014, but his 200+ K were a career high, and his WHIP was a career low.

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There was a ton, as usual, to like in Martinez’s data. His 9.53 K/9 was a career best, and he did all that by maintaining a 51% GB rate. His LD rate was below 20% once again, and he lowered his Contact rate by 3%, down to 77%.

Digging deeper into Martinez’s pitch usage, he featured his slider 27% of the time last season. He still managed an upper-90s fastball throughout 2017, but his slider usage jumped 8% from 2018.

While that may have led to his uptick in HR allowed, batters could only muster an .127 AVG versus the pitch.  Martinez has flirted with taking the next step in increasing his K rate, but by utilizing his slider more, it finally brought about the increase.

Martinez still has areas to clean up for sure. His ERA on the road was nearly a run more, and LHH have been hitting him better over the last few seasons, .262/14 HR/.783 OPS. Yet, all things considered, those are still solid floor numbers that help stabilize his value.

Durability wise, he checks another box off on his ace resume. He has made at least 29 starts over the last three seasons and reached a career-best 205 innings in 2017. His velocity has not dropped off either, so the 26-year-old has plenty left in the tank.

Nearly every MLB pitcher struggled with the long ball last season. Yet, fantasy owners have to take solace in seeing that Martinez kept his GB rate elite still. Prior to 2017, his HR/FB ratio was 10.6% the previous two seasons.

Combine that with his arsenal and batted ball data, it is easy to see why his HR/FB rate should be expected to return near that level as opposed to the 16% clip from 2017.

Next: Cardinals Michael Wacha: Underrated?

Durability, continual solid batted ball numbers, and a repertoire change that led to tangible K results, all cement his status as an elite fantasy arm. Carlos Martinez is not only the ace of the Cardinals’ staff, but he can now be trusted as a fantasy ace as well.