Nylon Calculus Week 15 in Review: Injuries, mythology and Steven Adams

The NBA season is long, and you can feel it in the dog days here in the middle of the season. But it’s most stressful on the bodies of NBA players. Players are dropping with alarming frequency. Mike Conley has been ruled out for the season. Cousins is gone (more on him down below.) Andre Roberson is too and he was probably rushed out to the court too soon. Let’s hope we see no other season-ending injuries because the playoffs are looking less and less interesting by the day. I’m not even asking for month-long injuries to cease; just please no burst tendons and severe sprains for a while. And with that’s, let’s take a look back at the last week in basketball….

The Odyssey and tragic downfall of DeMarcus Cousins

I imagine most people are aware that Achilles is a historical figure, and bonus points if they know he’s a Greek warrior from Homer’s Iliad, but few NBA fans (I’d guess) know his origin. Achilles was a nigh invulnerable hero, the son of a king who led armies with his bronze-tipped spear and mythic shield. It was foretold he would die young, so his mother dipped him into the river Styx to make him invulnerable. However, he was only protected wherever the water touched him, and she had held him by his heels — his Achilles’ tendons were his mortal weakness, and it led to his demise.

This is the kind of story humans use to explain what we find unusual. How could you bring down a 7-foot, 270 pound giant like DeMarcus Cousins so easily? It wasn’t by a huge hit from a fellow giant or a fantastical weapon or anything else imposing. It was just a small tendon at the bottom of his leg. That doesn’t seem right, and before the advent of modern science we used myths to explain curiosities like that. But it’s just a weakness in our physiology, a consequence of a bipedal creature putting a huge degree of stress onto a unique body part that captures and releases energy like a spring. It’s the key to our ability to walk, run, and jump, and almost the entire weight of our body rests upon it, often bouncing and multiplying the forces.

It’s a wonder these gigantic players don’t fall apart more often. But once the Achilles’ tendon is compromised, we do have cause for concern. There’s been a lot written about this type of injury, as it’s one of the worst ones that aren’t rare, but there is some optimism too. Medical sports science has gotten much better at dealing with this injury, and Cousins isn’t old like Kobe Bryant was. Younger players fare better. Also, Cousins’ game isn’t predicated on high-wire athleticism. He has size and skill, and even if he loses a step he’ll still find ways to be effective. But it’s a major setback, and the entire NBA world is reeling.

I for one will miss his stat-stuffing ways — not just the box-score, but miscellaneous stats too. When he was on the court, everything happened: shots at the rim, shots from outside, blocks, steals, and he’d create every foul imaginable (from the opponent and him) from technicals to charges to good ol’ shooting fouls. (By the way, everyone points out the irony of Cousins getting injured going for a loose ball, but he’s actually been one of the leaders in capturing loose balls, per stats.NBA.com.) Let’s hope for a full recovery.

Pandora’s box: Rookie/sophomore game snubs

The players for the Rising Stars all-star weekend game have been announced. With rookies and sophomores, it’s the USA versus the World again. The picks are pretty solid, and if Joel Embiid doesn’t play — or barely plays — it looks like an even match-up. But there were a couple of curious omissions. Jordan Bell has been fantastic for the Warriors; it’s like he was molded out of their clay, as he’s some 6-foot-9 high-flying, rim-running athlete who can pass better than most big men already. He’s arguably the second best rookie right now, and he should have been considered over, say, John Collins.  OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam are the names who come to mind for the World — Toronto was shrifted in general. I‘ve written about Siakam before, and OG looks like the real thing. He’s got intriguing defensive potential, and he’s already a valuable rotation piece. The good news is that all these snubs are just showing how deep the young talent is — there aren’t many stars yet, but it’s promising.

The waning trade deadline Halycon days

NBA fans the world over look forward to the trade deadline for team fixes, stars in new places, and fun new combinations. But aside from the surprising Blake Griffin trade I’m afraid we may not see a lot of movement. There aren’t a lot of teams with cap space, and some teams who have some conditions of a team about to rebuild are planning to stick it out and fight for the playoffs. I’d love to see the Cavaliers go for a big name, but their roster is already crazy expensive and there aren’t a lot of good targets out there. This period is usually one for excitement in the NBA world, the Halycon days of rumors and big moves, but it’s often a dud and we may get one of those years again.

Jason Kidd and the Greek God of Milwaukee

I did not anticipate some quick tweet I fired off after Kidd’s dismissal to take off like it did, but the situation with the Bucks’ fanbase was becoming … unstable. I was expressing my frustration with how Kidd and the fans were covered for most of the season. They were seen as a laughingstock in some circles, and while some fans were going too far, it’s the internet and fans say stupid, hyperbolic things. But they had a point; he was unfit to coach the team and swindled the management. I don’t feel bad about saying this either because he has a history of inappropriate behavior including charges filed against him for hitting his wife.

I know what it’s like as a fan of a team stuck in mediocrity. If you see something infuriating, like poor coaching, but outside observers dismiss it, and when many prominent NBA people embrace the dude, you can get angry. I like the Bucks’ roster, and Giannis Antetokoumnpo is one of my favorite players. They deserve better, and the fanbase should be given some credit for seeing the smoke before everyone else. Now let’s please play some basketball in Milwaukee and that professional coaching enters the city; we don’t need another circus.

Minotaur: Nikola Jokic

Quite quickly, the league found a replacement for DeMarcus Cousins in the All-Star game, and — surprise, surprise — it’s not Nikola Jokic. He would have been the perfect replacement too: an offensively-inclined big man with multiple skills and defensive question marks. And if people want to make the winning record argument, Denver has roughly the same record as the Pelicans themselves (with two all-stars) and Portland. They’re fighting for the playoff spot, and they would not be there without Jokic.

Before the replacement was announced, I was guessing Paul George, who has a good reputation, has a team that’s been playing well recently, and is getting a lot of attention for his defense, would get the nod. And that’s not a bad choice — I can’t be too mad. But Jokic has been undeniably valuable, and we can’t wash away his on/off (or plus-minus) stats as a fluke anymore. They’re consistent and meaningful. He has the body of a center but the head of a point guard — he’s an NBA Minotaur. He has worse teammates than most other All-Stars, but that’s not on him. He’s All-Star caliber.

Stephen Curry, the Titan in Our Midst

Stephen Curry recently lit the entire court on fire. He hit 49 points with a true shooting percentage of 86 against the top defense and the top seed of the Eastern Conference in Boston. He’s actually had a 75 true shooting percentage since he came back in late December. Somehow, he’s a darkhorse MVP candidate, and with recent trends he could pull into the lead by a good distance. James Harden got injured. LeBron James’ team is drowning. And no one else, save maybe Kevin Durant, was in spitting distance. But even Curry’s numbers can understate his value because he draws so much attention — he’s first in RPM, after all. Golden State is just so much better when he’s on the court, and that’s congruent with what we’ve seen in recent seasons. MVPs don’t play less than 70 games in the modern league unless it’s a lockout season, but we may be seriously considering him. He has the value.

The late LeBron-era collapse

The red alert has been sounded in Cleveland. Things are dire. The team has completely fallen apart. You can see a rolling net rating chart below courtesy of fellow Nylon Calculator Positive Residual. The season started rough, and when they improved we all assumed that was their true talent level. But it’s all going downhill. They’ve been 6-11 since the Bucks game on Dec. 19. They gave up 148 points against the Thunder, and one of their wins was by one point over the Magic. Isaiah Thomas had a few promising signs that were buried by awful play; he still does not look like himself and the team appears to be scrambling to fix things. They’re already changed their starting lineup, and perhaps a trade is next.

There’s been a lot made out of the Kevin Love incidents. He left an important game early. He apparently missed practice, and he’s been a lightning rod of criticism. I’m not there in the locker room, and I hate gossip, but I will add this: losing begets in-fighting and bad chemistry. Guys are happier when they win, and they treat each other better. Perhaps that’s at least part of the cause. Kevin’s role on the team is strange too. They do want LeBron to play as a pseudo-power forward (i.e. with only one big man on the court) but Love is not equipped defensively to play center. However, Love was already functionally a perimeter player in their system, and if they want a “five-out” system with all shooters on the court they could play Channing Frye more, as the Cavaliers have actually played really well with him on the court this season.

The defensive issues do not fall all on Love, however, or even Isaiah Thomas. They might have the worst defensive backcourt I’ve ever seen. Derrick Rose is a liability and doesn’t even try. Jose Calderon, who’s barely played, by consensus is one of the worst in the league. J.R. Smith has been atrocious. And Dwyane Wade does not get called out enough for his lazy defense. Ultimately, if you believe the reports about LeBron James’ influence, and those aren’t crazy, it’s on him as a GM. He’s invited his friends over to play, and it’s made them less competitive. The solutions are tough to find too. There aren’t a lot of defensive guards to be had out there, and they’re going to be a repeater in luxury taxes — George Hill is pricey and may have a nagging toe injury, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is making around the same money but for one year, and many defensive specialists, like Thabo Sefolosha and Patrick Beverley, are injured. But they need a fix now.

The unexamined rebound is not worth recording

Even with the countless number of people out there digging up stats and analyzing every corner of the game, there are still some interesting nuggets we can unearth from the game. Case in point: Steven Adams has been having a fantastic season so far, and he’s subtly been one of the best offensive centers. One key factor? His offensive rebounding is in the upper-stratosphere, but as a few other people are noticing, it’s leading to a peculiar statistic. Adams has had more offensive rebounds than defensive, and it’s an odder event the more you examine it.

I’ve always been fascinated by this statistical quirk. Part of the reason is that it’s not easy to search. Basketball-Reference doesn’t let you compare variables like that, and virtually no one else — to my knowledge — has been tracking something this esoteric. But it’s so basic: it’s just more offensive boards than defensive.

Let’s do something basic but necessary first. I’ll be looking at rebound percentages, via Basketball-Reference, rather than just totals. This is to make things fair to players on, say, good offenses who would have fewer opportunities to grab a board. You can see the full list of everyone below; there are 40 players who qualify with at least 1000 minutes played. This goes back to when rebounds were first split by offense and defense back in the early 70’s, and most were accomplished by low minute role players and a surprising amount of wings. Only six guys logged more than 2000 minutes.

Steven Adams is one of the rare starters on the list, and he has a shot at doing this with the highest rebound rate. You can see that in the table below, along with one other adjustment. Also, outside of Mike McGee, a small forward, no one has had a larger difference between one’s offensive and defensive rebound rate. He didn’t just clear the bar; he flew over it. But what’s most impressive, to me, is that he’s accomplishing this in an environment with the fewest offensive boards in recorded history. Teams (and by extension the players) are eschewing this play, which makes it even tougher to do — for one, there are more defensive rebounds to grab.

Table: rebounders with a higher off. reb. rate than def. reb. rate

Source: b-ref

To illustrate that point better, because I think it’s hard to see with a page of numbers, I made the graph below. Steven Adams is truly an outlier. Relative to league averages, he has one of the best offensive rebound rates ever, yet his defensive rebound rate is near the league average. That’s downright bizarre for a center with his skillset. The only other outliers of that magnitude on that graph are Dennis Rodman, of course, and Bill Walton, who would crush the boards on one end of the court and operate as a high-post center on the other.

Naturally, Steven has had some unique conditions. This was only made possible by Russell Westbrook’s extraordinary ability to, well, steal rebounds, especially the easy ones to grab after free throws. Steven’s defensive rebound percentage with Russell on the court is a mere 12 percent, which is something you’d see from a guard often. Without him? It shoots up to a respectable 17 percent. This isn’t a value judgement; the ball is best in his hands anyway. But for a historically unique event, you need a historically unique cause.

Next: The Encyclopedia of Modern Moves

We’ll see how the numbers shake out by the end of the season. For now, it’s a true oddity, and it’s elevating his underrated game on offense. Offensive boards are generally more valuable, and his ability to box-out for his teammates, especially Russ, is important too. Everyone calls their big three Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, but if you go by pure value, Adams supplants Carmelo easily.