Early DraftKings NBA picks February 4: Can you trust Giannis?

We still have six NBA games on Super Bowl Sunday. Unfortunately, they are all in the afternoon. That means our tournaments start earlier, and we have no suitable sports alternative for the NFL pageantry that is looking more and more like the WWE. We will still make the best of matinee basketball though!

DraftKings decided to split these up into two tournaments instead of just offering late swap. The four noon eastern tipoffs are the early one, highlighted by Giannis and no one else within $2,500. The two later games have more than that!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($8,800): On paper, this is a tough matchup, but paper doesn’t know that Kyrie Irving has already been ruled out again. Boston’s defense is still good, but it isn’t top five in the league against the point good. I expect Lillard to have a nice game here despite facing the harrowed Boston defense. He may not hit value, but how many will on this light slate? Lillard has topped 50 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. I like those odds.

Kyle Lowry ($7,400): This is another place where the numbers lie. The Grizzlies were the best team against the point when they decided to hold out Tyreke Evans until they are able to trade him. They have slipped to fourth in just two games since then. Lowry has an even better matchup than Lillard today. And he is $1,400 cheaper!

Honorable Mention:

Terry Rozier ($7,000): Rozier has been outstanding in his first two career starts. He gets a third with Irving sitting out again. This is a pretty tough matchup for Rozier, but we have no reason to doubt his usage or production at this point. If you’ve been riding him over the last two games, I see no reason to stop now. Just expect closer to 5x value than 7x.

Dennis Schroder ($6,900): If you are looking for consistency, you will have to go elsewhere. Schroder is very talented and the leader of this young team, but that doesn’t always equal production. In two games against the Knicks this year, Schroder is almost right at 5x value. This is still a good matchup for him, but you don’t know for sure what you are going to get.

Dark Horses:

D’Angelo Russell ($6,100): Spencer Dinwiddie performed so well with Russell out that the two of them have been running in the backcourt together at times. Russell has racked up 61.75 DraftKings points in just 40 minutes over the last two games. The Nets likely wont play Russell much more than the 24 minutes he saw on Friday, but he has shown that he can still do plenty of damage in that little court time.

Jarrett Jack ($4,600): Jack has 64.25 DrafKings points in 58 minutes in two games against the Hawks this season. Jack isn’t the future here, but he is holding down the fort until Ntilikina is ready. When that happens is anyone’s guess, but until Jack starts struggling on a regular basis, this job is his.

My pick: Rozier(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,500): DeRozan racked up 43.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but one thing we have to be aware of is the blowout potential here. The Raptors haven’t played a close game in a week, but that doesn’t mean that they wont take the opportunity to rest starters when they can. Memphis is still beat up, and lacks star power with Evans shelved until he can be dealt. There is solid potential here with DeRozan, but the blowout possibility has me a bit nervous.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,600): I’m still on Dinwiddie so long as he keeps producing. His production has actually been better since Russell returned, if you can believe that. This is working out better than the Nets could have hoped. Both Dinwiddie and Russell are interchangeable at either guard slot. I’m curious to see how this shakes out when Russell is fully healthy, but for now, Dinwiddie is still a solid play.

Honorable Mention:

Kent Bazemore ($6,400): Bazemore kept his hot streak rolling with a respectable 27.25 DraftKings points against the tough Boston defense in just 25 minutes on Friday. If he can perform like that against Boston, the Knicks don’t worry me. Now if he can only stay out of foul trouble…..

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700): Hardaway put up 35.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Atlanta, but he is shooting like Shaq from the foul line lately. Hardaway is just 2-24 from the floor in the last two games. That makes it hard for me to use him, even on a light slate. However, the silver lining is that ownership should be relatively low.

Dark Horses:

Andrew Harrison ($4,600): Harrison has been superb in his most recent run as the starting point guard for Memphis. He has 91.5 DraftKings points over his last three games. That comes out to nearly 7x value! He isn’t going to do that to Toronto, but 5x value seems imminent and 6x value is not out of the question.

Marco Belinelli ($4,000): Belinelli is such a good pure shooter that there is solid potential every time he takes the floor. However, that’s all he does. Belinelli is a volatile value pick, but the potential there is there for deployment in GPP situations.

My pick: Harrison(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Jayson Tatum ($6,500): Well, since guard is loaded, we had to know that some place wouldn’t be. The outlooks at both forward positions look pretty bleak. Middleton rarely hits value with Giannis in the game, so I would rather spend my money on someone with a ton of potential like Tatum. He is not very consistent, but as he showed against Atlanta, he is capable of big scoring outbursts.

Honorable Mention:

DeMarre Carroll ($5,500): Carroll was locked down by Ingram and the Lakers, but it’s not like he has a lot of upside anyway. Carroll has actually struggled with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson out. This may or may not be related, but I’m not taking any chances. At least not for someone with so little upside.

Taurean Prince ($5,300): What got into Prince? He dominated Boston of all teams with 51.5 DraftKings points. That is more than he had in the previous three games combined (35.25 points). Prince also put up 30.5 DraftKings points in the first game with the Knicks. If he was ever going to have a repeat performance, it would be here.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,900): After seeing what Prince did to the Celtics on Friday, there is decent upside for Aminu here. However, Aminu is not much of a scorer. That is where Prince did most of his damage.

Dillon Brooks ($4,400): Brooks doesn’t have a ton of upside here, but he is starting and producing between 5 and 6x value almost nightly. You can do a lot worse with a value pick.

My pick: Prince(SF), Brooks(G)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): Giannis shredded the Nets for 78.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Brooklyn. As far the slate goes, Giannis is the only one that can hit 60 or more. It is likely that no one else even comes close. Giannis may not even come close, but if you want the only guy that can, you have to pay up for it. Considering what he did to the Nets in the first meeting, he is likely worth the money.

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,200): Here we go again. Porzingis has not hit value in six of the last seven games. The only thing that has me even considering this is the 93 DraftKings points that he has in two games against Atlanta this year. When you consider how Porzingis has been playing lately, this may as well have been last season. There is huge risk here, but the reward is solid on a day like this.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford ($7,900): Theoretically, the presence of Monroe will free Horford up to take his game outside more and present the kind of mismatches that Kevin Love and the like routinely do. We don’t really know how this will shake out, but I tend to think Monroe will help Horford’s production instead of hinder it. What you believe will determine whether you roster Horford today or not.

Serge Ibaka ($5,200): Ibaka put up 30.5 DraftKings points in the first matchup with Memphis this year. Honestly, it’s been tough to trust Ibaka this year because he is doing little more than scoring. However, Memphis has struggled against power forwards all season. It would stand to reason that they do today as well.

Dark Horses:

jabari Parker ($4,600): Remember him? Parker’s first game back after nearly a year out went pretty well. Parker put up 15.75 DraftKings points in 15 minutes against the Knicks. The upside here is severely capped because Parker likely wont even hit 20 minutes tonight, but his game looked good. Good enough to take a chance if you’re feeling froggy.

Quincy Acy ($3,700): Acy has virtually no upside, but he is a constant source of value with RHJ out. The minutes are there, and while they are, Acy is 5x value like clockwork, but he still hasn’t hit 20 DraftKings points.

My pick: Antetokounmpo(PF), Acy(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Marc Gasol ($8,600): Gasol is the one man gang in Memphis right now. He has very little help with Evans exiled. However, that has been a great boon to his DFS performance. Gasol has averaged 45.2 DraftKings points in the four games with Evans not playing. That makes him well worth the price.

Enes Kanter ($7,500): Kanter has 175.25 DraftKings points over the last four games. He has been almost as hot as Gasol, and is priced lower. Just keep in mind that if Porzingis somehow manages to realize that he is good again, Kanter’s production could evaporate in a hurry.

Honorable Mention:

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,800): Valanciunas has put together six straight games of 5x value or more. We have seen flashes from Valanciunas before, but the stretches are usually short lived. This is one of his most prolonged productive stretches. Just keep in mind that it could stop at any minute. His past indiscretions still make me nervous.

Jarrett Allen ($5,100): Allen has put up 71.25 DraftKings points in two games since taking over as the starting center. As long as Allen keeps playing like this, Okafor will have to fight Zeller for scraps. Why would you want a part of that when you can have Allen for cheaper than he should be?

Dark Horses:

Dewayne Dedmon ($4,600): Dedmon put up 29.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Knicks this season. The Hawks are keeping Dedmon on a strict 20-24 minute regimen, which really caps his value. That said, he can do enough damage to hit value on a short slate.

Greg Monroe ($4,300): There is no word on the availability of Monroe for today’s game, which means that we have to keep a close eye on this one. Monroe is way too cheap if he starts today. If not, I would assume that he gets enough minutes, but we really have no way of knowing unless Boston is kind enough to let us know.

My pick: Gasol(C), Allen(UTIL)

Next: Late Slate DraftKings NBA Picks

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